EDITORIAL: The Marketing's Been Fun, But Just How Good Can We Expect DEADPOOL To Be?

EDITORIAL: The Marketing's Been Fun, But Just How Good Can We Expect DEADPOOL To Be?

Will Deadpool be just another fant4stic flop from Fox, or does the Merc-with-a-Mouth have more to offer than a few R-rated gags and violent decapitations? Hit the jump to read my take!

Editorial Opinion
By Minty - Feb 03, 2016 01:02 PM EST
Filed Under: Deadpool
 
Deadpool hits theatres next week! It’s hard to believe we’ve even reached this point. For a while, this movie looked like little more than a fanboy’s fantasy. It’s been almost sixteen years since the idea was first broached at Marvel, and six years since Rhett Reese & Paul Wernick completed their first draft of the script. After several years of speculation, recruitment, denials and development hell, a single piece of test footage mysteriously found its way online and… well, you know the rest of the story.
 
As troubled as Deadpool’s journey to the big screen was, that’s been totally overshadowed by the film’s phenomenal promotion. From innuendo-filled testicular cancer PSAs to egregious click-baiting, 20
th Century Fox have put together one of the most creative and humorous marketing campaigns in history. In truth, Fox & star Ryan Reynolds have been building momentum ever since that brilliant R-rated April fools reveal, but over the last few months they’ve really taken things to a whole new level.
 
Deadpool (potentially) represents the industry’s first true trans-media marketing success. It seems like every demographic has been catered to, across every platform available – whether that be via tongue-in-cheek TV-spots, unapologetically crude posters, emoji-covered billboards or, of course, social media. Fan anticipation has soared through the roof, and the general response from a surprise early screening last week indicates audiences have plenty of cause to be excited.
 
 
All of a sudden, Deadpool’s begun to look less like a cult hit and more like a blockbuster smash-in-the-making. But just how successful can this movie really be? From a financial point of a view, it still has a fair few obstacles in its way. A creative marketing campaign may not necessarily lead to bonafied results at the box office, and, of course, a key talking point has been the studio’s decision to forgo the PG-13 crowd in order to stay true to the character’s R-rated source material.
 
Was this decision the right one to make with regards to the character? Absolutely, but that doesn’t make it more profitable. Perhaps more alarming (or entertaining – depending on how you look at it) is the recent news that the movie has been banned in China, due to its “violence, nudity and graphic language”. The adolescent in me is still chuckling with glee at that prospect, but that doesn’t change the fact that Deadpool wont be able to open in the 2nd largest market in the world.
 
Reynolds has done his best to laugh off this blow, but you can’t help but think the bigwigs at Fox were left a little nervous by it. China’s importance has skyrocketed over the last few years, and Chinese audiences have even managed to save a few blockbusters from financial disaster (I’m looking at you Pacific Rim, Terminator Genisys…). If, for some reason, North American audiences don’t take to the Merc-with-a-Mouth, then the studio won’t have this safety net either.
 
 
The very reason why Reynolds and the filmmakers had to put up such a huge fight for Deadpool to be rated R in the first place is because the track record for adult superhero affairs hasn’t been that stellar in the past. We’ve been down this road before. Watchmen barely made its $130 million dollar budget back in 2009, and while Matthew Vaughn’s Kick-Ass proved to be more successful, it did so on a much smaller $30 million kitty. Thankfully, Deadpool’s budget appears to be more along those lines (it’s rumored to be in the $50-75 million region – although that marketing campaign will not have come cheap). Ultimately, it looks like positive early word-of-mouth will be this film’s greatest weapon, and should be enough get it into the black even if it does disappoint critically.
 
Which brings us to the other big question, just how good can this movie be? While commercial success isn’t always tethered to quality (hello Transformers), positive word of mouth has to come from somewhere – especially for R-rated affairs. One possible analogy for Deadpool is The Hangover. The first movie, while totally undermined by its lackluster sequels, is still one of the funniest, most original comedies Hollywood has churned out in years – and American audiences rewarded that fact by helping it become the 3rd highest grossing R-rated flick of all-time.
 
If Deadpool can attract the same sort of crowd as the first Hangover movie, then a worldwide gross of $400, even $500 million might not sound as far-fetched as many industry experts may have once believed. And if the general public’s response to the marketing campaign has proven anything, it’s that this movie is incredibly unique in its ability to attract all kinds of moviegoers – from raunchy comedy lovers to superhero fanatics. It just needs to be a good film.
 
 
And who says it won’t be? Despite more than a few questionable career choices (Green Lantern, Self/less, R.I.P.D.…) Ryan Reynolds is still widely perceived to be a talented actor, with a real gift for comedy. He proved that last year with a severely underrated turn in Marjane Satrapi’s warped horror/comedy The Voices, before demonstrating some serious dramatic chops and holding his own alongside a brilliant Ben Mendelsohn in Mississippi Grind. He even shone in his bit-part in X-Men Origins (before his character was inexplicably butchered). Deadpool has always been Reynolds’ passion project, so it’s hard to imagine he’s given any less than 120% effort on this – and that’s encouraging.
 
The rest of the cast is… less stellar, but that’s largely because they’re all relatively unknown. T. J. Miller’s a funny guy (he’s shown that in the trailer alone) but he’s also earned critical acclaim from his work on Silicon Valley. Morena Baccarin has delivered strong turns on Homeland & Firefly in the past, while Brianna Hildebrand could be a real find as Negasonic Teenage Warhead. However, the key players are off-camera. Rhett Reese & Paul Wernick earned a plenty of fans after their first draft of the movie leaked online - having already impressed in the past with Zombieland. Elsewhere, Director and VFX artist Tim Miller may be untested as far as feature films go, but take a look at his work on The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo’s opening sequence before you write him off too quickly.
 
 
There’s really no telling how great Deadpool is until the first wave of reviews come out, and even then, the general audience may feel very differently to critics. However, providing there is some semblance of story and structure underneath all of the jokes, and the movie’s not entirely set on that one bridge, then there’s a very strong chance it could end up emulating last year’s Kingsman – both critically and commercially. A $400 million return would all but guarantee a Deadpool 2.
 
Hell, if things really go their way, it could even exceed that target. At this point, almost anything seems possible. The fact that folks at Fox have been praising it non-stop admittedly means diddly-squat, but there is something different about this one. The company has shown a sense of faith in this movie that was absent throughout all of Fant4stic’s doomed production. Deadpool appears to have come along at the right time for everyone: a studio in need of redemption, a star long overdue his ‘big break’ and an audience hungry for more graphic nudity, violent decapitation and fourth-wall breaking in their superhero films. It’s a win-win scenario for everybody!
 
Bryan Singer recently opened up about how difficult he felt replacing Hugh Jackman as Wolverine would be. The Aussie has long been the face of Fox’s X-Men franchise, but he’ll hang up his claws after Wolverine III. While the likes of Singer & Simon Kinberg stress over Hugh’s potential successor, the success of Deadpool could provide them with another option that nobody saw coming – the Merc-with-a-Mouth himself! Of course, figuring out how to blend his violent, satire-driven, foul-mouthed persona with the family-friendly mutant crowd is a whole other challenge entirely…
 
How well do you think Deadpool is going to do? Will it be a resounding success – and if so, could Wade Wilson end up headlining Fox’s fledgling cinematic universe? As always, I hope you enjoyed the read, and be sure to leave your thoughts and predictions in the comments below!
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KarolosPrime
KarolosPrime - 2/3/2016, 1:23 PM
I believe it will be good not great but still good!
ossie85
ossie85 - 2/3/2016, 1:25 PM
Great article, couldn't agree more with everything said.

I think $450m minimum, but not putting a ceiling on it.
Minty
Minty - 2/3/2016, 1:34 PM
@ossie85 - Thanks, glad you took the time to read.

I'm thinking it'll be in that region, but I didn't want to settle on a solid figure for the same reason. This one seems too unpredictable. It's kinda exciting!
permaturenut
permaturenut - 2/3/2016, 1:56 PM
@ossie85 - i say 560 at the most but still [frick]ing insanely good for rated r
TheEpicJuicebox
TheEpicJuicebox - 2/3/2016, 1:26 PM
Am i the only one who's kind of annoyed with the marketing that this movie has it seems like they're kind of trying too hard get the point across that this movie will be R rated
Sith
Sith - 2/3/2016, 2:03 PM
Yeah it's just you!
NateBest
NateBest - 2/3/2016, 1:27 PM
@Minty's Back!!!
Minty
Minty - 2/3/2016, 1:33 PM
@NateBest - Ayyy hey Nate! I was about to drop you an email saying I'm back in business for February :)

Love the site redesign btw. The look is cool, and the new comments system is so much easier!
SauronsBANE
SauronsBANE - 2/3/2016, 1:42 PM
@NateBest -
KikinGonzalez
KikinGonzalez - 2/3/2016, 1:43 PM
@NateBest - Hey Nate, quick question: will we have the hall of shame and banned users back?
KikinGonzalez
KikinGonzalez - 2/3/2016, 1:44 PM
@SauronsBANE -

That guy is the real super saiyan from DBZ! LOLs!
NateBest
NateBest - 2/3/2016, 10:11 PM
@KikinGonzalez - I haven't decided yet... As of now it's in limbo and only available to the admin/moderators...
TheManWithoutFear
TheManWithoutFear - 2/3/2016, 1:33 PM
I don't think having Deadpool headlining the Fox Marvel Universe is a good idea, because it's just not true to the character at all. I hope the film is great. I'm excited to see Wade break the 4th wall. The general audience won't be expecting that at all and I think it will feel fresh. As long as the jokes land, i don't see why it can't do well.

Having said that, Deadpool would have bombed even 5 years ago. It needed 7 years of the MCU to really get the general audience super-comfortable with all sorts of colourful comic characters.
BlackPhillip
BlackPhillip - 2/3/2016, 1:34 PM
Tim Miller also did the opening for TDW.
MonsterSquad35
MonsterSquad35 - 2/3/2016, 1:36 PM
(Insert another pic of Deadpool on the bridge here)

But seriously, this movie will be really good.
BlackPhillip
BlackPhillip - 2/3/2016, 1:36 PM
I think this movie will do Kingsman numbers.
TheManWithoutFear
TheManWithoutFear - 2/3/2016, 1:38 PM
Heck, i'm still amazed at how fantastic that costume is. Seriously I can't believe how perfect it is. And I can't believe it came from Fox!! It's crazy.
slickrickdesigns
slickrickdesigns - 2/3/2016, 1:40 PM
^^ It will Flop that Deadpool Teabag across your face as it turns out to be a hit movie. ^^
slickrickdesigns
slickrickdesigns - 2/3/2016, 1:41 PM
yes.. Movie will suck-ceed!!!!!

Chewtoy
Chewtoy - 2/3/2016, 1:42 PM
I think someone screwed up by scheduling "Deadpool" and "Zoolander 2" for the same weekend. They share a great deal of audience overlap, and at least one of them, if not both, is going to have a much lower weekend than had they opened without the other film in the same frame.

Now personally, all of the interest I have, as well as the interest of anyone considering either that I know personally, is in Deadpool, and I think that Zoolander 2 comes a few (many) years too late to really have much heat behind it... but you never can be certain when going up against something recognizable.
shaddowkhan
shaddowkhan - 2/3/2016, 1:43 PM
Although I will be there on opening night,I have a gut feeling this movie will disappoint. Wednesday I shall see.
SauronsBANE
SauronsBANE - 2/3/2016, 1:45 PM
Damn, my only regret after reading this is that I can't say "thumbed" anymore. 'tis indeed a sad, sad day :(

Seriously though, loved this, Minty! Kingsman really is the perfect comparison to this - similar sense of humor, comparable budget, and a definite overlap in fanbases. I thought I remember reading that Deadpool 2 was all but confirmed, but Kingsman numbers would easily guarantee it.
Minty
Minty - 2/3/2016, 2:53 PM
@SauronsBANE - Noooo it's so sad! Those days are gone now Saurons.

Yeah I'm pretty sure they're thinking about Deadpool 2 already. It'd have to be a Fant4stic level disaster to sway them. I can't see that happening tbh
MiopTop
MiopTop - 2/3/2016, 1:47 PM
It may get lukewarm reviews and do a big meh at the box office, but I know I'll love this movie, which is all anyone should really care about. Just hope it makes enough to warrant a sequel.
McGee
McGee - 2/3/2016, 1:47 PM
I don't care much for Minty's offensive t-shirts, but he's a damn fine editor.

Welcome back man.

Minty
Minty - 2/3/2016, 2:56 PM
Dammit McGee I've missed ya

gambgel
gambgel - 2/3/2016, 1:49 PM
my boxoffice bet is between 400-420m.

If it does more, f****** awesome!
JoeMomma29
JoeMomma29 - 2/3/2016, 1:53 PM
Personally I think the movie will be good........will it be great? Well I hope so......

Though who in their right mind decided to release this movie the same time as Zoolander? Not saying Zoolander will kill this movie but it does not help at all.

And not being in China does not help at all. I am really hoping for this movie to do well, though you know some idiots on this site are actually hoping for this movie to flop due to their hate of FOX in general.
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