Tracking Indicates That JOHN CARTER May Be The First Big Budget Flop Of 2012

Cowboys and Aliens got hurt specifically by the title I think. People in the theater were interested until Cowboys and Aliens came up, then it was chuckle city. I just don't think anyone knows what to MAKE of John Carter because nothing is explained in the trailer. It's a lot of random shots of action stuff happening with big alien things and a shirtless guy. Not to mention, Aliens right now are not really an in genre, which is going to sting. Tracking doesn't mean doom but having no clue what you are looking at and no reason to want to see it is not helping it. They need a better trailer, better marketing and just overall better approach. The Disney name alone isn't going to sell this. 250 million? Wow, that is going to be hard for this to touch.

They should show more Earth scenes in the trailer and how is transported to Mars.

It looks great to me and my wife wants to see it because Taylor Kitsch is "one fine piece of man meat", or something like that :)

It's going to profit. Word of mouth and all that. Everyone who's seen this movie liked it. What it needs is a trailer saying "From the director of Wall-E and the mind of Tarzan creator Edgar Rice Burroughs" and you're done.

Can anyone interpret this for me?: "Not good. 2 unaided, 53 aware, 27 definitely interested, 3 first choice."

i blame the poor advertising, and that the trailers suck. i'm not saying the movie is going to suck, it's just the trailer offered me nothing.

Unaided if I remember right means they know what the movie without a trailer or title or whatever, it is the first thing they bring up. That being at 2% is really bad. Such terrible brand awareness right now. 53% know of the movie and will maybe see it at some point, but that usually splits to half of them will see it in theater and the other half on DVD. 27% means as long as they don't screw up, they will see it as long as nothing else they want to see first is out. And 3% first choice is obvious. If I got all of that correct, you are looking at really bad tracking and signs their marketing campaign is REALLY terrible. They are working off zero brand awareness for a movie that needs to FIND an audience.

What tracking really means though honestly, is nothing. Conan had GREAT tracking and was a total bomb out. If John Carter gets great nationwide reviews, gets better trailers and can find an audience, it should get three good weeks before it gets slammed by Hunger Games. But if the reviews are lukewarm to low and the ads do not build the awareness, it's in trouble

This is where the actual quality of the film comes in handy. If the film's good, positive word of mouth will spread like cooties.

Well I have to agree with everyone else here, it looks like its a rip off of a lot of movies.

Ironically, the story is what inspired those movies. I think most people are seeing this as "Avatar".

I'm gonna give it a shot. Willem Dafoe AND Mark Strong? Sold!

I think they should definitely push the Burroughs and Pixar connection. It could only help.

I'll be furious if it bombs. Looks like it could be a huge franchise for Disney if handled right.
Movie looks excellent, hopefully the next Avatar visually.

Prerelease screenings have had nothing but positive reviews. Andrew Stanton, the man behind Finding Nemo and Wall-E, arguably two of the best Pixar movies ever, is directing this.

I wouldn't take the tracking numbers or the word of a Rival Studio's Exec as worrisome information. Tracking doesn't always accurately predict a movie's success rate, and of course a rival Exec wants to put a rival's big budget movie down.

If this gets good reviews, like I believe it will, it will probably do very well. Professional opinion, along with good word of mouth, can do wonders for a film.

I knew something of the character growing up as a kid, but liked Tarzan better (other than comic books). The effects remind me a lot of Star Wars Ep 2. Don't know why.
I've thought the box office outcome of this would be similar to Green Lantern.
With ticket prices these days, people aren't going to lay their money down for something/someone they don't relate to - more for 3D.

Well, if it's a good movie (which it looks like it will be) WOM will help the film quite a bit, I think. If it's average, than it may be in troublle.

From the trailer I can immediately say too much CGI. Would have been better location shoots, large stages and costumes. That said, the "Disney" logo above "JOHN CARTER" really doesn't help. (Imagine if it was "Disney's PROMETHEUS" uhuh...) The story is an old one and has never been put to screen so it should have been pushed like a legend should, along with (previously mentioned) pushes for the Director of Wall-E and mentions of Edgar Rice Burroughs.

I think the trailer for this movie looks pretty awesome. Granted I know what its about because my coworker literally whined about them not doing a "John Carter Of Mars" movie yet like 3 weeks before I saw the news break that they were doing it. I definitely think it looks better than this Hunger Games crap that you guys are so excited for. That has not peaked my interest yet.

Look, the movie has had nothing but positive reviews come back from all the clips, and the one screening review we read a week or so ago. I agree the Disney logo being above makes it look like its for kids, but whatever.

I'm excited for the film. I think it looks pretty epic, and aside from The Avengers, Dark Knight Rises, and Amazing Spider-Man, its my most anticipated movie so far. And I don't have cable, haven't watched ANY tv spots except the Superbowl spot, only the theatrical trailers, and I wasn't familiar with the books until my co-worker told me about them. I'm coming strictly from a movie fanatic who only spends money on the box office if the movie looks big and epic and worth the big screen and surround sound.