The report by analyst Vasily Karasyov is being featured over at Deadline and makes the argument that Super Hero CBMs might have had their day in the sun. Now this is nothing new. Every year somebody spouts off about how they feel it's all coming to an end and studios are running out of characters to adapt etc. Karasyov cites the advances in CGI for the initial boom in super hero movies beginning in 200. He lists Fox's X-Men, Sony's Spider-Man, Warner Bros' Batman, and Paramount's Iron Man as the studios top franchises but suggest that nothing has really taken off since Iron Man and studios have now "tapped their hottest properties"..
"As film studios dig deeper into catalogues for characters for new films, we think the chances of finding a break out property are diminishing fast" -- even though the films still come with high production costs -- Karasyov writes. If superhero films fail to catch on, then studios can forget about raking in lots of additional revenue from licensed merchandise. The bottom line: Investors should expect "growing risks to (financial growth) estimates" for companies including Disney and Time Warner that are looking to superheroes to help rescue their studio profits. And Disney CEO Bob Iger may end up regretting his decision to pay $4B for Marvel in 2009: Disney made that deal at "the top of the (comic book) character remonetization cycle,"
This is interesting, and the argument is certainly there. Just look at this year's SDCC. Definitely a very sparse year for studios debuting and promoting footage. Are they just not that bothered anymore? Sure we have a number of movies still to be released and even shot from all the major studios mentioned but what then? Can solitary franchises sustain them..and us? Personally I feel as long as there are good movies making huge amounts of money that things will continue as they are. But will that money keep rolling in once the general public stops recognizing the guys in tights they see in the trailers? I think Mr Karasyov underestimate the number of characters left to adapt, but he is certainly right about one thing. One of two left aside, soon enough all studios will be looking not only to second, but third tier characters and that just may not cut it. This guy certainly feels that we should prepare to mourn the superhero movie. What do you think?
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