REPORT: Should We Prepare Ourselves For The "Death Of The Superhero Movie"?

REPORT: Should We Prepare Ourselves For The "Death Of The Superhero Movie"?

An analyst over at Susquehanna Financial Group thinks we should. As the relatively CBM footage free SDCC kicks off, check out this intriguing report..

News
By MarkCassidy - Jul 21, 2011 06:07 AM EST
Filed Under: Other
Source: Deadline

The report by analyst Vasily Karasyov is being featured over at Deadline and makes the argument that Super Hero CBMs might have had their day in the sun. Now this is nothing new. Every year somebody spouts off about how they feel it's all coming to an end and studios are running out of characters to adapt etc. Karasyov cites the advances in CGI for the initial boom in super hero movies beginning in 200. He lists Fox's X-Men, Sony's Spider-Man, Warner Bros' Batman, and Paramount's Iron Man as the studios top franchises but suggest that nothing has really taken off since Iron Man and studios have now "tapped their hottest properties"..



"As film studios dig deeper into catalogues for characters for new films, we think the chances of finding a break out property are diminishing fast" -- even though the films still come with high production costs -- Karasyov writes. If superhero films fail to catch on, then studios can forget about raking in lots of additional revenue from licensed merchandise. The bottom line: Investors should expect "growing risks to (financial growth) estimates" for companies including Disney and Time Warner that are looking to superheroes to help rescue their studio profits. And Disney CEO Bob Iger may end up regretting his decision to pay $4B for Marvel in 2009: Disney made that deal at "the top of the (comic book) character remonetization cycle,"


This is interesting, and the argument is certainly there. Just look at this year's SDCC. Definitely a very sparse year for studios debuting and promoting footage. Are they just not that bothered anymore? Sure we have a number of movies still to be released and even shot from all the major studios mentioned but what then? Can solitary franchises sustain them..and us? Personally I feel as long as there are good movies making huge amounts of money that things will continue as they are. But will that money keep rolling in once the general public stops recognizing the guys in tights they see in the trailers? I think Mr Karasyov underestimate the number of characters left to adapt, but he is certainly right about one thing. One of two left aside, soon enough all studios will be looking not only to second, but third tier characters and that just may not cut it. This guy certainly feels that we should prepare to mourn the superhero movie. What do you think?



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DukeAcureds
DukeAcureds - 7/21/2011, 7:01 AM
Like dubstep, emo, chavs, Harry Potter and Captain Jack Sparrow, Superhero movies are a thing of the noughties. The noughties were over last year. All things associated with the noughties will follow.
Green Lantern was the deathblow.
Superman will be the last gasp.
StrangerX
StrangerX - 7/21/2011, 7:10 AM
Nah. There are plenty of heroes in comics and Graphic novels out there that are well deserving of a feature film. What Hollywood needs to understand is that you can't treat every hero movie the same. When all the super hero movies are using extreme amount of CGI and hiring actors that have done the same type of role before it does get old.
StuckInPanels
StuckInPanels - 7/21/2011, 7:20 AM
oh no a comic convention focusing primarily on comics....OH NO!!!! THE HORROR!!!! don't people remember that SDCC was primarily a convention for the fans, not this hollywood propaganda convention it has become now. Showing off their new things to please the main people who watch it in hopes they spread it to others....CBM will continue to prosper, the over saturation as they say wanes year to wane
Orphix
Orphix - 7/21/2011, 7:20 AM
Although I believe we have hit a sort of 'critical mass' of CBM I don't think the argument that the studios are running out of characters is all that valid. At least not enough to warrant a death of the genre.

Studios will just have to be a bit more clever how they market and fund their properties.

Basically a good film is a good story well told. If the studios keep that end of the bargin up then there won't be that much of a problem. Less familiar characters may need smaller intial budgets in order to be profitable but that will be the only change.

Major characters will always stand a good chance.

No genre is completely safe however. Westerns and Melodramas have had to take a back seat over recent decades but they still get made.
95
95 - 7/21/2011, 7:29 AM
Wow, I agree with what everyone ^ said before me.

Marvel is looking at film as a new medium for storytelling so I don't expect it to stop, they can create new brands and characters in it.

@StrangerX ~ Spot on!
95
95 - 7/21/2011, 7:30 AM
All hail GALACTUS!
SuperSomething616
SuperSomething616 - 7/21/2011, 7:31 AM
The argument of 'running out of characters' is definately not valid and 1 film this year proved this...

X-Men First class...forgetting maybe Blade before them the X-Men was one if not the first CBM of the noughties that kicked things off...

And 10 years later and a very well made prequel/reboot of the franchise and its back on track...

Running out of characters is not what could kill the comic book movie genre...poor box office figured films like Green Lantern are...(not that I'm bashing it cause I enjoyed Green Lantern)

X-Men: 1st Class and Green Lantern are at opposite ends of the spectrum...1 shows how to do and the other not so...

So long as CB Movies are making money at the box office they will continue...

So this guy who wroe this (whoever the hell is he) can shuddup!!!
Minato
Minato - 7/21/2011, 7:32 AM
No TDK #s will keep companies throwing money at the screen.
DukeAcureds
DukeAcureds - 7/21/2011, 7:38 AM
I can't think of a single CBM that is coming out, after Superman. I mean, like, a guaranteed green light. Ant-Man is the closest I can think of, but that seems to never be ready. They keep doing another draft of the script and then saying "well we've just finished the first draft". Iron Man 3 has a director and is pretty much guaranteed, but it's still not a certainty. If Avengers flops (It is actually a possibility, y'know, it's a completely untested thing), then Iron Man 3 may be scrapped.
Can anyone else think of a post-Man-of-Steel CBM?
Hawksblueyes
Hawksblueyes - 7/21/2011, 7:40 AM
I don't buy into this way of thinking. If the film is good, people will see it. The characters used in these films does not have to be an A-list character, just translatable into a good story.

As for the studios not making a huge appearance at CC....why should they spend tons of money to sell these films to a people who are already sold on them? The people at Comic Con are the "built in" fan base that are going to catch these films at the theater almost regardless. Following that train of thought, they can also give a huge mis-read on the public's reaction to a film. It's the general public that makes or breaks a CBM not the fans. So, the general public is who the studios have to aim their marketing at.

The last few years the studios have went all out with marketing at Comic Con and received huge responses only to have films fail because the fan base they were testing was not enough to sustain a film.

While we love seeing everything a studio has to offer at CC, it is an unnecessary expense on the studios part. We, the fans, will see the film regardless.
thunderforce
thunderforce - 7/21/2011, 7:41 AM
If it was or is done well it will rake in the cash , How much money would green lantern have made if it was made by James Cameron , Huge amounts thats how much .
LFANCH
LFANCH - 7/21/2011, 7:41 AM
So long as the action genre is still going superhero movies will be fine. I don't really consider superhero films their own genre, since they essentially are just action movies featuring a comic book character. Running out of characters won't be a huge problem for a while though, just because there are so many characters. Look at batman, we had the original 4 movies, then the character took some time off and came back stronger than ever.
DukeAcureds
DukeAcureds - 7/21/2011, 7:41 AM
@ComicBookMovie
You give us hope, our supreme leader.
All Hail!
DukeAcureds
DukeAcureds - 7/21/2011, 7:42 AM
Bropous@
Nice Avatar. Newmar? Mrowr.
drfate
drfate - 7/21/2011, 7:42 AM
Total BS, comic book movies are here to stay.

Storytelling is cyclical but the themes are the same, and have been for centuries! That's like saying "oh, action movies are going to fade out, how many times can one man shoot thousands and save the girl, that'll never last!" Yet, action movies go on.

The theme of the underdog, reluctant hero rising to face a seemingly undefeatable, unrelenting danger and prevailing will never die. That's the human story and always will be.

Whether its spies, prophets, superheroes, water vapor farmers, or whatever, it will never end.

As far as properties to develop, that's a deep well too. Excellent writing is what makes or breaks a character. You can take almost any character and make a blockbuster...with the right script! THAT'S what Hollywood LACKS, not just good, but superb WRITERS.

When I heard they were making a Blade movie, I said WTF?! Blade wasn't second or third tier, he was like 20th tier! A total nobody piece-of-shit-character who has never been able to hold his own in a comic (still), but kicked ass on the big screen. CBM's are here to stay.
ComradeGrey
ComradeGrey - 7/21/2011, 7:42 AM
If you make shitty movies they don't make money.
JackBauer
JackBauer - 7/21/2011, 7:44 AM
The superhero genre is doing just fine. We are still going through a comic book movie boom right now but eventually it will slow down. No big deal. Most of the various film genres have dealt with a downturn at some point. Westerns, war and horror movies have all survived even though, at times, it seemed like nobody was making any of them.
PhilKee
PhilKee - 7/21/2011, 7:48 AM
REBOOTS!!!!
Superman75
Superman75 - 7/21/2011, 7:54 AM
I think people who choose side like Marvel fanboys or DC fanboys are helping this happen. Wishing for a film to fail and that company to fail will help this happen. Fans should just hope all comicbook films turn out great.
breakUbatman
breakUbatman - 7/21/2011, 7:55 AM
I don't think comic Con should be a factor, the comic con crowd doesn't need to be drawn in to watch CBMs.

The fate of CBMs will be determined by the quality of the movies made. Superman and Batman only died as franchises because of poor quality sequels.
Superman75
Superman75 - 7/21/2011, 7:56 AM
Sorry sides. I can't edit.
zemus
zemus - 7/21/2011, 7:56 AM
Maybe for DC :P
DukeAcureds
DukeAcureds - 7/21/2011, 8:10 AM
@DCF - thanks.
(In reverse order)
I think Preacher fell through.
Green Lantern 2 will never happen, now.
Wanted 2 will forever be in development limbo.
Kick Ass 2 and/or HitGirl is, I think, inevitable.
Hancock 2 wouldn't suprise me, but if CBMs decline, it won't happen.
Ant-Man is still at the script stage.
Runaways is in development. That could just mean they've thought about it, at some point. They might forget it after a good nights sleep.
Judge Dredd will be out soon. Before Superman.
G.I Joe is more of a toy franchise.
Sin City 2 was in limbo for a few years, then The Spirit came out. Don't hold your breath.
I think The Crow is out in 2012. I could be wrong.
Deadpool. Ithink that will happen. They love the script. X-Men is safe now, since First Class.
So...
Kick Ass Sequel and Deadpool are seemingly the only certainties, after 2012.
I fear the end is nigh.
marvel72
marvel72 - 7/21/2011, 8:11 AM
yeah it maybe the end for dc characters but marvel are just growing in strength & will continue there dominance.
ultimatefan1974
ultimatefan1974 - 7/21/2011, 8:18 AM
I saw the death of the superhero movie 11 years ago when Batman&Robin was released. Even ib thie year of excessive superhero mocie releases, Thor has ensured a sequel, in spite of not being one of the better known heroes, and Cap can make pretty decent dough as well, and even XMFC made almost 350m worldwide, which is pretty respectable. So far, only GL, sadly has been an undeniable underperformer. The world awaits for the last Chris Nolan Batman, The Avengers and the new Spider-Man. I think the world will have to live with superheroes for still a little while.
StrangerX
StrangerX - 7/21/2011, 8:23 AM
I've always thought that DC should start looking deeper at their villains. Things that could work would be-

A Secret Six tv show

A Solomon Grundy movie that's more of a john Carpenter Horror style:

These type of outlooks are what DC needs IMO
BorisSenna
BorisSenna - 7/21/2011, 8:23 AM
This is dude quoted in the article is about as aware of the reality of comicbook properties (or the ability of producing CBMs that aren't so budget-heavy) as an amoeba is aware of human rights.

Go back to wall-street, chicken little. The sky ain't falling quite yet.
quickdraw1021
quickdraw1021 - 7/21/2011, 8:35 AM
Yeah, there might be some truth to this i think after the avengers theres not much left but b rate charecters left to make i mean really what's left .I don't see them taking a huge risk on lesser known charecters like Moonight and Alpha-flight.Still would be cool to see Silver surfer in his own film
razor
razor - 7/21/2011, 8:44 AM
There will always be comic book movies. The source material is endless, and has only broken the surface. Articles like these see only the Batmans and X-Mens of the world, without reference to the less-than-known movies that go under the radar. In fact, they site Iron Man when they say studios seem to have used all the good characters. No one knew Iron Man would be the success it was, because he was a second tier charcater. Now he is in the mainstream. Who's to say there isn't a third tier character that will translate onto the big screen in a better way than it does on the pages. The tap has been open and the well is hardly dry.
comicb00kguy
comicb00kguy - 7/21/2011, 8:50 AM
Fangz: Interesting post, with many good points. Could we compare the 'comic book movie' to the animated feature? The animated feature used to be something special when only Disney did them, and later Pixar. Now, there is a new one coming out almost monthly. It just isn't special or unique anymore. I think a lot of mainstream audiences are starting to feel the same way about comic book movies. They're rolling their eyes like "Lord! ANOTHER superhero film? Meh!" They'll need something really special to bring in those mainstream audiences that are superhero-ed out. Then we get into the whole thing of directors that completely change what the character is all about to fit their arrogant "vision" or re-whatever. I'd personally just as soon not see superhero films at all as to see them where a character I've read for thirty years is unrecognizable to me (gee, seems like there is a GREAT example of that coming out real soon!). It's not hard to do a great superhero film. There are decades worth of awesome stories waiting to be filmed. And they're already storyboarded out, all that's needed is a script, some actors, and a set.

One more thing: For as much as people look down on disco music, it should be properly recognized as the forefather of all of the many genres of dance music that followed. And some of it wasn't that bad.
Digitaria51
Digitaria51 - 7/21/2011, 8:54 AM
This 'anal-yst' can suck my d*ck
KaneVonDoom
KaneVonDoom - 7/21/2011, 9:00 AM
I'm sooo glad that Marvel is doing very well although I can't help but be nervous about Avengers. I'm not a fan of DC much at all but it's a bummer to see such a big name not succeed with movie adaptations.

Seems like Batman is their only hope right now and that's more of a standalone universe within the DCU and not really associated with the rest of it (in the general mainstream mindset). People may be aware of the connection but still think of Batman as his own thing whereas Iron Man will always be associate with the Avengers, Wolverine will always be associated with X-men...

Spiderman is kinda like Batman in that regard but he is still a quite bit more intertwined with the greater Marvel Universe than Batman is with DCU. Now to fixt those movie rights issues.
naterator
naterator - 7/21/2011, 9:06 AM
I dont think that we are in any real danger of being without the CBM.....as far as MARVEL goes....Disney has pretty much insured that with their purchase. As far as DC is concerned....unless they get a divorce from WB or WB learns to dig a little deeper and learn how to be financially responsible for its franchises then we can forget about any more live action films....just have to get used to MORE and MORE CARTOONS. CGI might be the best way to go if they cant figure out how to put live action scripts together. I really enjoyed GL but i can certainly see where it could have been so much more. I really hope that they can recover with a GL2 that has a different director and writers. Perhaps a GL2 would be best if introduced after GL has appeared in a Flash and JLA movie. GL needs some more face time with other heroes before he has his own movie again IMO. I think what hurt the first movie most other than the economy is the general public not knowing who GL is in relation to the rest of the DC universe.

Woman should have a movie out after MOS in 2013. Wasnt that reported not too long ago? JLA should NOT happen before 2015 though.
plasticman
plasticman - 7/21/2011, 9:07 AM
@ razor- I am in agreement with you. First off, we have more, potentially better stories to translate to the big screen for Thor, Captain America, Spiderman, Superman, Batman, and Green Lantern. Granted this year seems like a saturated market for the comic book genre but in this economy all of these movies are doing great. I have been to more midnight showings this year that ever before and I wouldn't stop doing that with any sequels.

The comic book movie limits are set in an open range of endless possibilities but what this "anal-yst" (good one Digitaria51) does not seem to understand is there is even more beyond the horizon that makes for even better film making when it comes to CBMs. When these movies are done the right way no one complains and all attend. This has been proven with Thor, X-Men, Transformers, and even Harry Potter. And every movie is outdoing the previous one and setting records that is completely opposite of where the world economy stands right now!!

No, I don't see a slow down. I see continued success with this year being a test on whether multiple CBMs in succession is sustainable. And guess what, IT IS! When I go to the theater I say "Make mine a CBM!!!"
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