Last summer, Superman became the highest-grossing superhero movie of 2025 with $618.7 million worldwide. Much was said about whether the movie's rumoured $300+ million budget made it unprofitable, but on the surface, it was a hit and hailed as a sign DC Studios was doing right by the DCU.
That was essential after a 2023 that saw the dying DCEU deliver flops like Shazam! Fury of the Gods and The Flash. However, this past June, Supergirl crashed and burned with $126.4 million worldwide. Now, all eyes are on Clayface and Man of Tomorrow to see whether they can succeed.
As Paramount Pictures and Warner Bros. Discovery merge to become Skydance, James Gunn and Peter Safran's positions as DC Studios co-CEOs appear safe. However, that could change at any time, and the duo need to prove themselves with a couple of bona fide hits.
Last night, we brought you an update on very early tracking for Clayface, with Box Office Pro reporting that the R-rated horror movie is eyeing a $23 million to $33 million star at the North American box office. Those aren't the numbers we'd expect from a new DC Comics adaptation, but there's one crucial detail that's worth remembering: Clayface has a $40 million production budget.
Based on the industry-standard theatrical rule of thumb, Clayface will need to gross between $80 million and $100 million worldwide to break even. Movie studios typically require a film to generate 2x to 2.5x its production budget in ticket sales before turning a profit, and even with marketing thrown in, Clayface has likely cost less than $100 million in total.
With a decent international haul and a couple of decent weekends, Clayface stands every chance of becoming a moderate hit. Glowing reviews and positive word of mouth could help it massively exceed expectations, not unlike recent horror hits Backrooms and Obsession. However, that's a big ask for any comic book movie today, and especially one based on an obscure Batman villain.
As that original report points out, "Though those tapped into the comic book movie ecosystem may know their Clayfaces from their Kravens, the more casual superhero moviegoing set are less likely to distinguish one comic book B-list villain from another, meaning a stellar marketing campaign and/or solid word of mouth—neither of which have yet come into being—will be needed for Clayface to capture crossover audience interest."
In terms of competition, Clayface has a lot of it. It's a busy weekend with the likes of Klara and the Sun, Wildwood, and Wicker opening in theaters, but the bigger concern should be Street Fighter. If that has a huge opening and a decent hold, Clayface may not even open at #1. Fortunately, there's little of note coming out the following week.
Ultimately, Clayface isn't going to lose DC Studios a catastrophic amount of money. Even if it opened on the lower side of projections and then had a disappointing second frame, the movie won't lose hundreds of millions. Tens of millions, yes, but Paramount surely won't punish Gunn and Safran for taking a risk on a project like this. If reviews are bad, then that might change.
Clayface will be released in theaters on October 23.