BOX OFFICE: Joaquin Phoenix's JOKER Tracking For Record-Setting $100M+ October Debut

BOX OFFICE: Joaquin Phoenix's JOKER Tracking For Record-Setting $100M+ October Debut

Strong word-of-mouth coming out of the Venice Film Festival has Todd Phillips' standalone Joker movie slated to surpass Sony's Venom opening weekend domestic box office record for an October debut...

News
By MarkJulian - Sep 07, 2019 08:09 AM EST
Filed Under: Joker
Source: www.BoxOfficePro.com
According to one box office expert, a positive showing at the Venice Film Festival, favorable critical reception (current Rotten Tomatoes score of 85%) and increasing social media chatter has resulted in a 27% increase in the opening weekend projections for Warner Bros.' Joker. 

Todd Philips' film is now tracking for a $103M USD opening, which would give it the record for the highest-grossing opening weekend for an October release (of any rating).

That estimate would also give the film a 4th place position on the list of  Biggest Opening Weekend for an R-Rated film. Currently, Deadpool 2 occupies the top spot on the chart with a $132.4M USD debut.

Joker centers around the iconic arch nemesis and is an original, standalone fictional story not seen before on the big screen. Phillips' exploration of Arthur Fleck, who is indelibly portrayed by Joaquin Phoenix, is of a man struggling to find his way in Gotham's fracturedsociety. A clown-for-hire by day, he aspires to be a stand-up comic at night...but finds the joke always seems to be on him. Caught in a cyclical existence between apathy and cruelty, Arthur makes one bad decision that brings about a chain reaction of escalating events in this gritty character study.
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Feralwookiee
Feralwookiee - 9/7/2019, 8:11 AM
The movie is "low" budgeted, so it's essentially guaranteed to turn a profit through name recognition alone. That said, I've seen nothing about this flick that interests me and will be skipping.
tmp3
tmp3 - 9/7/2019, 8:38 AM
@Feralwookiee - A $55m price tag means this is a mid-budget film - which are getting more and more rare recently - not a big budget one. My biggest fear if this makes money is that the only mid budget films we get soon are ones with capes, considering how movies are now either $200m bohemeths or tiny independent films
Feralwookiee
Feralwookiee - 9/7/2019, 9:06 AM
@tmp3 - While there's no real strict tiers for what defines a movie as low, mid, or high budgeted, the Hollywood Reporter claims that the average cost of a feature film is somewhere between $70 and $90 million dollars. Going by that, Joker would be considered a lower budget film.

As far as CBM's becoming regulated to mid to lower budget films, I doubt it. Huge movies like Avengers, while carrying $200+ price tags, are still hugely profitable at the box office and through merchandising. Hollywood doesn't generally stray away from a tried and true money making formula.
Mykull
Mykull - 9/7/2019, 8:12 AM
All this weatherman hype!
ALegendaryPanda
ALegendaryPanda - 9/7/2019, 8:14 AM
I'm unbelievably excited for this movie. This is definitely an opening night event for me.
99OPTIMISTPRIME
99OPTIMISTPRIME - 9/7/2019, 8:18 AM
Because of the critical reception, anything less than Venom or Deadpool, would be at least somewhat of a disappointment. Not from a budget standpoint, but from a DC vs. Marvel popularity contest standpoint.
regularmovieguy
regularmovieguy - 9/7/2019, 8:22 AM
@WAKANDABATMANFOREVER

Don’t expect this movie to do Deadpool or Venom numbers...750 mil is out of the cards.

Might match/surpass Venom domestically tho.
LongMayHeReign
LongMayHeReign - 9/7/2019, 8:25 AM
@regularmovieguy

Agreed, I've always seen this between $600-$700M which is fantastic!
tmp3
tmp3 - 9/7/2019, 8:27 AM
A certain porg on here said this would do $100m opening weekend ages ago, so looks like his prediction might be coming true
thewanderer
thewanderer - 9/7/2019, 8:31 AM
Not buying this projection. I think it will open under $70M.

I’m not knocking the movie at all, I just don’t think it’s had the mass appeal people think it does.

It’s very much an Indie film and they’ve done little to market it to the general audience superhero fan.

It’s going to have a niche audience.
David78B
David78B - 9/7/2019, 8:36 AM
Not getting my money
tmp3
tmp3 - 9/7/2019, 8:38 AM
This'll do like $300m domestic and then $4 overseas. I'd be surprised if it wasn't banned in China
regularmovieguy
regularmovieguy - 9/7/2019, 8:40 AM
@LongMayHeReign

It will be interesting for sure! I see it topping 500 mil...word of mouth is going to be wild.

Waiting to see how more critics react to it at TIFF. We got some good flicks coming up - I believe we should have our first Knives Out reactions today. Maybe Jojo Rabbit, too.

I'm [frick]ing hyped, man.
regularmovieguy
regularmovieguy - 9/7/2019, 8:44 AM
@tmp3

Just Mercy premiered, too. Not hearing raves for it but from what I've seen it's "good".
tmp3
tmp3 - 9/7/2019, 8:50 AM
@regularmovieguy - lol, looks like that thing you said months ago about Mercy ain't gonna happen. Jamie Foxx supporting nomination at best.
Also, excited to see Jojo reactions. Knives Out looks a bit too broad right now, but hopefully it's good. Still feeling good about Jojo winning Best Picture, gonna be between that and Marriage Story I think (but man, oh man, would I love OUATIH to take it)
Also, Venice awards in an hour... wonder if Joaquin can take home the Volpi for Best Actor.
regularmovieguy
regularmovieguy - 9/7/2019, 8:53 AM
MBJ and Jamie Foxx are apparently fantastic in it. Which is coo.
OmegaDaGrodd
OmegaDaGrodd - 9/7/2019, 8:54 AM
Arthouse Venom prediction has been unwavering in it's accuracy
regularmovieguy
regularmovieguy - 9/7/2019, 8:55 AM
@tmp3

When does Marriage Story come out on Netflix? Gonna try and see that in theaters if it has a limited release.

I really want to see The Irishman on the big screen..I really [frick]ing do. But 3.5 hours is willlllld.
tmp3
tmp3 - 9/7/2019, 8:59 AM
@regularmovieguy - "But 3.5 hours is willlllld."
You say that like it's a bad thing. I just saw Once Upon a Time in America, and that's 3 hours 50 minutes lmao. Legit might be my most anticipated film for the rest of the year, De Niro has been in more classics than any other actor in history, it's staggering. Seeing him, Scorsese and PacinHoo Ha on a film that's 3.5 hours long sounds like something too good to be true.
Forthas
Forthas - 9/7/2019, 9:17 AM
...and I hope it surpasses that! Joker is a "proof of concept" that Warner Brothers and specifically Zack Snyder made the dumbest decision in film history by moving away from the story, tone and style of films that Christopher Nolan established in a sad effort to copy Marvel. Instead of getting epic films that BUILT on what was at the time ground breaking CBM's, they created crap films full of stupid jokes and excessive explosions and no real themes or story telling. This could have defined the CBM genre but instead Marvel is printing their own money we get this nonsense...
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