With Avengers: Doomsday hitting theaters December 18, I wanted to know who fans actually expect to die. So I set up the Doomsday Death Pool, where fans go through 50 characters from the movie and mark each one as dying or surviving. 223 people have now filled it out. On average, fans expect 17 of the 50 characters to die, which would make Doomsday by far the deadliest MCU movie ever.
Here's the full breakdown, character by character, sorted from most likely to die to safest. Each percentage is the share of fans who picked that character to die.
TIER 1: FANS THINK THEY'RE DONE (50% OR HIGHER)
Professor X (86%): The runaway favorite, and nobody else is close. Patrick Stewart's other Charles already died in Multiverse of Madness, and fans clearly think this is the real send-off for the original X-Men.
Magneto (72%): If Charles goes, fans expect Erik to go with him. A lot of people are betting on the two old friends dying side by side.
Red Guardian (62%): The biggest surprise in the top three. Thunderbolts* made Alexei lovable, and in the MCU that usually means you're in danger.
Ant-Man (59%): Fans have joked for years about Scott Lang taking down Thanos, and it seems most of them think his luck finally runs out here.
Namora (57%): The Talokan side of the cast is expected to take some losses, and Namora is the one fans pick first.
Bucky (57%): He has been through everything in the MCU. A heroic sacrifice feels like the logical end to his story for a lot of fans.
Nightcrawler (56%): The highest of the newer X-Men. Fans seem to think the X-Men get hit hard in this movie.
Attuma (55%): Another Talokan character fans think doesn't survive the fight.
Mystique (52%): Just over half of fans think she dies, which fits the "X-Men take the biggest losses" theory.
M'Baku (52%): A coin flip leaning toward death. Wakanda may not get through Doomsday untouched.
TIER 2: TOSS-UPS (35% TO 49%)
Ghost (49%): Almost exactly split. Fans can't decide whether the Thunderbolts lose her or Red Guardian.
Peggy Carter (46%): Her return is one of the bigger mysteries, and fans are torn on whether it ends in tragedy.
Nick Fury (45%): He has "died" before. Nearly half of fans think this time it sticks.
Beast (42%): Kelsey Grammer is back, but fans aren't sure he makes it to the end.
Cyclops (41%): A lot of Cyclops death picks. Fans clearly don't trust Marvel with Scott Summers.
Mobius (40%): The TVA crew is split down the middle in fans' eyes, starting with Mobius.
Loki (40%): After his ending in the Loki finale, fans are torn on whether Doomsday brings him back just to say goodbye.
H.E.R.B.I.E. (40%): The Fantastic Four's robot is the one member of the family fans think could actually die.
Latverian Witch, Purple (39%): Doom's witches are a total mystery, so fans are mostly guessing.
Falcon (39%): Fans were more worried about him than about Sam Wilson as Captain America (more on that below).
Gambit (37%): Channing Tatum's Gambit finally gets his shot, and over a third of fans think it's a short one.
Casey (36%): Fans think the TVA could lose some of its lovable side characters.
U.S. Agent (35%): Thunderbolts fans think he's tougher to kill than Red Guardian or Ghost.
Steve Rogers (35%): Only about a third of fans think Steve dies, which says a lot about how people see his return.
Latverian Witch, Yellow (35%): Right in the middle of the pack.
TIER 3: PROBABLY SURVIVE (20% TO 34%)
Miss Minutes (34%): Fans aren't sure whether the TVA's mascot is a casualty or a survivor.
Human Torch (34%): The most at-risk human member of the Fantastic Four, but most fans still think Johnny makes it.
Hawkeye (34%): Clint is one of the last original Avengers standing, and most fans think he stays that way.
Latverian Witch, Green (32%): The safest of Doom's three witches.
Thor (31%): Fans don't see Thor going out here, even with the stakes this high.
Ouroboros (30%): O.B. is mostly expected to make it out.
Namor (30%): Fans think his people take the losses, not him.
Wong (27%): Most fans think Wong survives, possibly because the multiverse still needs a Sorcerer Supreme.
Captain Marvel (24%): One of the more powerful heroes, and fans think she is too important to lose.
Shuri (23%): Fans mostly expect Black Panther to survive.
Hulk (23%): Bruce has survived every major MCU event so far, and fans expect that streak to continue.
TIER 4: SAFE (UNDER 20%)
Doctor Strange (19%): Fans expect him to be central to whatever comes next.
Cassie Lang (19%): Most fans think Cassie survives, even with her dad near the top of the list.
Wolverine (18%): Fans clearly think Marvel isn't killing Wolverine again any time soon.
Shang-Chi (17%): Fans expect him to be part of the next generation of Avengers.
Sentry (17%): Bob has incredible power, and most fans think that keeps him alive.
Sam Wilson (17%): He is the new Captain America, and fans think he survives to lead the team.
Love (17%): Thor's adopted daughter is one of the safest picks in the movie.
Mister Fantastic (15%): Reed Richards is one of the safest heroes, according to fans.
Invisible Woman (14%): Fans think Sue survives, just like most of her family.
Deadpool (14%): Fans know he's nearly impossible to kill.
The Thing (13%): Ben Grimm is one of the safest characters in the movie.
Yelena (11%): After Thunderbolts*, fans see her as the new face of the team, and almost nobody thinks she dies.
Franklin Richards (7%): Nearly every fan thinks the Richards' kid survives.
Doctor Doom (5%): The safest character in the movie. With Secret Wars right behind it, almost nobody thinks Robert Downey Jr.'s Doom goes down here.
WHY FANS COULD BE WRONG
Marvel loves to surprise people. Before Infinity War, almost nobody expected half the universe to get snapped, and before Endgame, plenty of fans assumed Tony and Steve would both make it out. If Doomsday follows that pattern, the shocking death might come from the "safe" tier, not Professor X. My gut says one of the Fantastic Four or a major Avenger goes down, because that's the kind of loss that sets up Secret Wars.
MAKE YOUR OWN PICKS
The full live tier list keeps updating as more fans vote: https://portalspulllist.portalmasterstudios.com/deathpool/tier-list/
You can make your own picks there, get a shareable kill list card, and start a private pool with friends. The best predictions after release win $250 or a Doctor Doom statue.
Who do you think fans got wrong? Let me know in the comments.