ALITA: BATTLE ANGEL Outperforms Weekend Projections, But Is This Enough For A Sequel?

Even since its years in development hell, Alita: Battle Angel has always faced an uphill battle. The challenge of introducting a cult intellectual property to an international audience has been hit and miss, but unlike attempts like Ghost In The Shell and Blade Runner 2049, Alita had a wild card up her sleeve - box office god James Cameron.

This weekend, and since its Thursday opening, the Cameron produced-film has grossed $33 million total, with an estimated $42 estimated through Monday. Domestically, this surpasses the low expectations many analysts had for the emerging property, with a disaterous $23 million suggested by box office tracking. On the bright side, with the great reception the film is getting from fans, its safe to say the film will gross over $100 million in the United States. But with a $170 million production budget and a studio pegged $350-$400 million breakeven point, Alita will need great legs internationally to warrant a sequel. 

While the typical blockbuster usually performs betweel 2-3 times its opening weekend in the States, the US alone is clearly won't make back its gargantuan production budget, which will ultimately rely on international territories. Already, Alita has grossed $94 million without China and is on track to match around $225 million without the territory. With tracking at around $50 million in China, the most likely outcome in the Middle Kingdom is similar to the United States, a total around $100 million. This is due to China being frontloaded compared to the States, where blockbusters usually perform double their opening weekend. Adding the totals of all these predictions, the international gross should be in the low $400 million arena. Whether a small profit like is enough to justify a sequel is up to the studio, as well as the how word of mouth performs in the up and coming weeks. Regardless, Fox must be very happy that the film managed to subvert everyone's expectations.