James Cameron's Avatar: Fire and Ash has arrived in theaters across the world this weekend, but the threequel isn't drawing the same level of interest as 2022's Avatar: The Way of Water. At least not if these opening numbers are any indication.
As we first reported on SFFGazette.com, the movie has fallen short of industry projections, earning $88 million in North America since hitting the big screen on Thursday. That's a steep decline from its predecessor's $137.1 million, but an increase from Avatar's $77 million debut in 2009. It's also the seventh biggest 3-day opening weekend ever for December, topping The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey ($84.6 million) but falling short of...The Way of Water.
Overseas, Avatar: Fire and Ash has also come in on the lower end of estimates, with a $275 million 5-day opening. That's another dip compared to The Way of Water's $307.6 million, and with a $345 million global haul, this movie is way behind the last movie's $441.7 start.
Should Disney be worried? Well, even with a $400+ million budget, not including marketing, Avatar: Fire and Ash should turn a hefty profit. This is the second biggest global opening of 2025, behind only Zootopia 2, and when all is said and done, the threequel should end its run between $1.2 billion and $1.6 billion.
That's a solid result, though we're sure it won't be lost on the studio that this will be the first Avatar movie that doesn't come close to $2 billion at the worldwide box office. It appears interest in Pandora is on the decline, but the movie is an advertisement for Disney World and is still on track to be one of the year's biggest hits.
However, four theater-exclusive Avengers: Doomsday teasers being paired with Avatar: Fire and Ash during its first month in multiplexes does seem to suggest that Disney knew this third chapter wouldn't be a runaway success.
Reviews for Avatar: Fire and Ash have been good, not great, and Cameron has repeatedly said he's considering scrapping plans for Avatar 4 (a movie he's unlikely to let another filmmaker take charge of).
"This can be the last one. There’s only one [unanswered question] in the story," he recently said. "We may find that the release of Avatar 3 proves how diminished the cinematic experience is these days, or we may find it proves the case that it’s as strong as it ever was — but only for certain types of films. It’s a coin toss right now. We won’t know until the middle of January."
"I feel I’m at a bit of a crossroads. Do I want it to be a wild success — which almost compels me to continue and make two more Avatar movies? Or do I want it to fail just enough that I can justify doing something else?" Cameron added.
Getting people into theaters is proving harder than ever, and looking at these numbers, it's hard not to wonder how Avengers: Doomsday will fare this time next year compared to Avengers: Infinity War and Avengers: Endgame.
With Avatar: Fire and Ash, Cameron takes audiences back to Pandora in an immersive new adventure with Marine turned Na’vi leader Jake Sully (Sam Worthington), Na’vi warrior Neytiri (Zoe Saldaña), and the Sully family.
The movie also stars Sigourney Weaver, Stephen Lang, Oona Chaplin, Cliff Curtis, Joel David Moore, CCH Pounder, Edie Falco, David Thewlis, Jemaine Clement, Giovanni Ribisi, Britain Dalton, Jamie Flatters, Trinity Jo-Li Bliss, Jack Champion, Brendan Cowell, Bailey Bass, Filip Geljo, Duane Evans, Jr., and Kate Winslet.
Avatar: Fire and Ash is now playing in theaters.