BLACK ADAM Early Box Office Tracking Points To A Solid $55 - $75 Million Opening Weekend

BLACK ADAM Early Box Office Tracking Points To A Solid $55 - $75 Million Opening Weekend

Initial tracking numbers for Black Adam have hit the board, and Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson's superhero movie debut is expected to bring in between $55 and $70 million during its opening weekend...

By MarkCassidy - Sep 26, 2022 09:09 PM EST
Filed Under: Black Adam

Black Adam is set to hit theaters around this time next month, and the final live-action DC Comics movie of 2022 (well, there's only been one other) looks set for a pretty decent opening weekend at the North American box office.

According to Box Office Pro's early estimates, Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson's superhero debut should take in between $55 million and $70 million domestically.

While this is obviously be quite a bit less than the $100 million many major studio comic book movies manage to amass (pre-pandemic, at least), it would still be a perfectly respectable haul, and could potentially give Johnson a career-best opening weekend (besting Hobbs and Shaw's $60M).

The trailers haven't gone over particularly well with fans, so positive word-of-mouth will likely be key to Black Adam having legs. It's also worth keeping in mind that the film will have very little in the way of competetion until Black Panther: Wakanda Forever releases three weeks later. 

Check out some new poster art from Boss Logic below.

"From New Line Cinema, Dwayne Johnson stars in the action adventure Black Adam. The first-ever feature film to explore the story of the DC Super Hero comes to the big screen under the direction of Jaume Collet-Serra (“Jungle Cruise”). Nearly 5,000 years after he was bestowed with the almighty powers of the ancient gods— and imprisoned just as quickly—Black Adam (Johnson) is freed from his earthly tomb, ready to unleash his unique form of justice on the modern world."

Johnson stars alongside Aldis Hodge (City on a Hill, One Night in Miami) as Hawkman, Noah Centineo (To All the Boys I’ve Loved Before) as Atom Smasher, Sarah Shahi (Sex/Life, Rush Hour 3) as Adrianna, Marwan Kenzari (Murder on the Orient Express, The Mummy) as Ishmael, Quintessa Swindell (Voyagers, Trinkets) as Cyclone, Bodhi Sabongui (A Million Little Things) as Amon, and Pierce Brosnan (the Mamma Mia! and James Bond franchises) as Dr. Fate.

Black Adam will be released nationwide on 21st October 2022 by Warner Bros. Pictures.

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AmazingFILMporg
AmazingFILMporg - 9/26/2022, 9:32 PM
I think this film will end it's run at 600 million. Making it one of the lower DCEU films




There is zero hype for this trash looking film.


It's the rock featuring DC😐🤡
ObserverIO
ObserverIO - 9/27/2022, 4:46 AM
@AmazingFILMporg - Maybe even lower considering Wakanda Forever is right on it's heels

If this is as bad as Morbius and has a poor opening weekend, it could be lower than 500.

Box Office Pro are basing a lot of their science on Hobbs and Shaw, which came out at the height of Johnson's popularity. They also say word of mouth will be crucial, but not if it's a bad movie (and it's looking that way).

Also DC as a brand hasn't the power of Marvel as a brand. People tend to see the least confusing films like Joker, Aquaman or The Batman. This has a bunch of superheroes flying around that the general audience has never heard of.

I think Box Office Pro are gravely over-estimating Black Adam's chances.
TheWalkingCuban
TheWalkingCuban - 9/27/2022, 7:19 AM
@ObserverIO - you saying that just gave me a flashback of whatever movie followed Shazam, I think it was endgame think it was infinity war I’m confusing my years, anyway, It’s legs got cut right off. Black panther could have that effect but the rock has movies and Christmas time that usually do well even with competition, I don’t do that but the theaters are starved so both movies just might thrive
CAPTAINPINKEYE
CAPTAINPINKEYE - 9/26/2022, 9:33 PM
Theatres are dead right now. This has no competition.
AmazingFILMporg
AmazingFILMporg - 9/26/2022, 9:38 PM
@CAPTAINPINKEYE -


So if this films opens to barely 50 million with zero competition will that be a flop?
TheWalkingCuban
TheWalkingCuban - 9/26/2022, 9:44 PM
@CAPTAINPINKEYE - this rightchere. Another thing, we here may not be super excited but to think that the Rock, the guy from Jumanji and fast this and Hobbes that, is a big ol turn off to the Gen Pop, you gotta be kiddin me. We (not me I’m watching it but you get it) might sleep on it, but I guarantee the non pocket protector people are on it. It’s gonna be a case of, we’re so dark and edgy for not liking it, watch. They don’t care that it’s failure @$$ DC… it’s the Rock.
JDL
JDL - 9/27/2022, 2:43 AM
@TheWalkingCuban - In that suit, he looks like a turn-off. Otoh the dialog may be good enuf to compensate. We'll see.
TheWalkingCuban
TheWalkingCuban - 9/27/2022, 2:51 AM
@JDL - Success is so relative these days but I think Shazam numbers would be bad for a movie starring the rock whereas Hobbs or whatever numbers would be good, and anything from there to Jumanji or fast or whatever his highest gross was
bobevanz
bobevanz - 9/27/2022, 4:25 AM
@CAPTAINPINKEYE - word of mouth is the only thing that can save this. It looks like a 2007 superhero movie, prolly when they wrote the first draft lol
JDL
JDL - 9/27/2022, 4:36 AM
@TheWalkingCuban - Well tbh I'm just not sensing any excitement for this. If the budget is indeed $185M as has been reported a 'normal' P&A would be about $110M but I don't expect that. $75M is more like it. Total swag cost of $260M. I'll be conservative and say 50-50 domestic and foreign assuming no China. That makes a BEP of about $625M. Anything much less than that and DC is on the block.

This is a pure wild-assed guess on my part but I think that Batgirl was an attempt to make something at a lower cost that would still make money and they (Discovery) did not think it worked. In a way there are similarities to Ant-Man 1 in that regard. They would have been happy with Ant-Man type numbers but didn't see even that B.O. as possible.

So Black Adam may well be the last go-round at the WB for the DCEU before a sale cause it's become clear this company does not have the money needed to do it right.
MaxPaint
MaxPaint - 9/26/2022, 9:35 PM
So hyped for this movie
MyCoolYoung
MyCoolYoung - 9/26/2022, 9:38 PM
Why would 70 million opening weekend be bad? What's the overall budget?

I don't know, man people have said it looks like it sucks, but I don't think so. Even if it's generic, it looks like it could be a fun time at the show and I'm cool with that
AmazingFILMporg
AmazingFILMporg - 9/26/2022, 9:39 PM
@MyCoolYoung -



180 million dollar budget. No competition. The rock staring. DC property.



😐
AmazingFILMporg
AmazingFILMporg - 9/26/2022, 9:40 PM
@MyCoolYoung -


Dr strange opened to 90+ million.



Gotg opened to 80+ million.



This film will do Ant-Man numbers with a bigger bugey and star
MyCoolYoung
MyCoolYoung - 9/27/2022, 12:02 AM
@AmazingFILMporg - but it would be the biggest opening in Rock history. I'm not sure if the Rock is the box office draw people seem to think he is. He has a lot of box office duds.

This movie could do Hobbs and shaw numbers I feel.
Spock0Clock
Spock0Clock - 9/27/2022, 12:46 AM
@MyCoolYoung - I don't get the Rock appeal beyond the surface-level "he's a charismatic guy who is built like an anime" aspect. He could definitely be a good fit for a character like Black Adam or Gladiator (and maybe even kill it with a great script).

But he's pretty much in everything and he's more or less the same thing in everything. When a Rock movie comes out, it's like finding a some super common trading card when you open a pack. It might be nice, but you've already got 6 of them in a drawer back home you don't even use.
Steel86
Steel86 - 9/27/2022, 1:38 AM
@Spock0Clock - I'm a huge Rock fan but he has played it safe with alot of his movies. I really wish he went the Arnold route and wanted to be in more sifi action movies.
Steel86
Steel86 - 9/27/2022, 1:42 AM
@MyCoolYoung - I think some of the commentors are not paying attention to the word "opening" in the weekend box office. Also after the first Avenger movie Marvel movies have had a "I don't know who that hero is but it's Marvel so I'll see it." Mentality from the general audience. While DC, non Batman, has to prove its good. If the movie is good it will do well. And it will do good international numbers because Rock's movies always do well overseas.
MyCoolYoung
MyCoolYoung - 9/27/2022, 9:24 AM
@Spock0Clock - a lot of this. I can't lie, I did enjoy him Jumanji. That movie was a pleasant surprise for me, but being that I'm not sure any of his other movies overperformed. So I guess most don't see the appeal
MyCoolYoung
MyCoolYoung - 9/27/2022, 9:25 AM
@Steel86 - isn't he huge in China? Has this been confirmed to release there?
Steel86
Steel86 - 9/27/2022, 10:39 AM
@MyCoolYoung - Its expected to but no official announcement. I don't see an obstacle since, to my knowledge, there is no asian bad guys or LGBTQing in it.
dracula
dracula - 9/26/2022, 9:40 PM
If this doesnt do well hopefully that means we will get Black Adam as a proper villain in a shazam movie
MCUKnight11
MCUKnight11 - 9/26/2022, 9:40 PM
I kind of don't want to see it because I'm morbidly curious what would happen to WBD. I want to see that result.
AmazingFILMporg
AmazingFILMporg - 9/26/2022, 9:41 PM
@MCUKnight11 -


I'm not watching.😃





DCEU needs to die forever💪
LongMayHeReign
LongMayHeReign - 9/27/2022, 1:14 AM
@AmazingFILMporg -


GhostDog
GhostDog - 9/26/2022, 9:41 PM
It looks so dull
tmp3
tmp3 - 9/26/2022, 10:19 PM
@GhostDog - this genre's gonna be on the way out if it keeps coasting on shit like this and a lot of the other clunkers out this year. might even be for the best if this is what we can expect 🤷‍♂️
GhostDog
GhostDog - 9/27/2022, 12:05 AM
@tmp3 - Wakanda Forever is the only hope
tmp3
tmp3 - 9/27/2022, 12:07 AM
@GhostDog - the trailers look so good, but after the one-two bomb of strange & thor, and with how bad the d+ shows have been, my faith in marvel's at an all time low
Spock0Clock
Spock0Clock - 9/27/2022, 1:00 AM
@tmp3 - I remember people writing Marvel's obituary in 2015 with Age of Ultron coming in under the first Avengers' box office and Ant-Man being... well Ant-Man.

The superhero genre can't die the way westerns did for a variety of reasons, (chiefly that superheroes are inherently versatile as allegories for modern life, not stuck in a narrow historical context). The MCU itself may have survived long enough that the nostalgia waves are going to keep it afloat.

(The proof of that being that when I said "Age of Ultron" and "Ant-Man", I'll wager there was a part of you that thought "actually, those weren't as bad as people said they were at the time" and BOOM, they got you.) At this point, there is always going to be some generation of 30-year-olds that grew up watching the MCU with their parents as 10-year-olds... as long as 30-year-olds have any money and kids at all, but that's a bigger discussion. Leaving plenty of room for them to be disillusioned-20-somethings in-between.

They may not stay at the top of the charts forever, of course, but the MCU continuity could easily survive in the kind of B-tier space that Star Trek operated in for decades (adjusted for cultural inflation, I mean, the 2020s B-tier isn't the same as the 1990s B-tier.).
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