So, to start right off the bat, with my point and then prove my theory, my short breakdown of the current narrative being painted about the Disney Marvel regime. They have managed to make the most over hyped franchise of all time. Yes, I said it. Many believe that Disney and Marvel have found some magic formula that has been invented post 2008 and no other Hollywood producer or studio owner has managed to uncover it before or after them.
What do I mean by that, well in the history of Hollywood there has been generally six major studios. They are Warner Bros [1923], 20th Century Fox [1935], Paramount Pictures [1912], Universal Pictures [1912], Columbia-Tristar Pictures [now owned by Sony] [1924] and Walt Disney Studios [1923]. Just for scale and to put that in perspective, in the course of almost ten decades, the number of movies released is over 10000 [low estimate]. Now what is common for all of them is that none of these studious have released only well received, highly acclaimed, Oscar Winning movies. Each studio has its classic movies, its flops, its mediocre successful ones and the ones that transcend time and genre.
Why am I saying this? Well ladies and gentlemen, Kevin Feige has managed to beat the above statistic in 10 years’ time, he has only produced acclaimed critical movies. A guy that has not attended film school has cracked the code people have tried to, since 1912. How did he managed to, you ask?
Well it is very simple apparently, you just stick to the root of the character, put some humor here or there, so audience do not fall asleep often and wear a baseball cap. Or you just have a good PR machine, suck up to the same 300 critics that form your flashy Rotten Tomatoes score, get them to exclusive premieres, get them exclusive interviews with Robert Downey JR., Chris Evans, Scarlett Johansson, free drinks and somehow convince the world that you can’t do no wrong. This is if we assume that all these Disney owned Marvel movies are critically acclaimed according to this one specific site’s way of calculating a score and we disregard audience scores, iMDB scores, box office performances that might tell a different story of a more mediocre sort of existence.
Another comparison is to check the career path of great directors like Spielberg, Coppola, Kubrick, Nolan, Fincher, Lynch, Scorsese, Tarantino, Scott, Eastwood, Allen, Cameron, Jackson, Polanski, Welles, Kurosawa, Burton, Chaplin, Leone, Lucas etc. I am just naming some of the best, not all. This is just to show you that even these genius level guys, that will be forever remembered for their work, have not achieved the same level of perfection as Mr. Feige.
What these names have in common is that they are all the best at what they do and they all have critically panned movies. So, let’s assume every studio has flaws, every director has flaws and every actor has flaws.
But then how is that MCU Directors have a mixed bag before and after their MCU movies, but seems to always hit it out of the park when they work for Disney?
Are we then saying that these mortals are given god status once they start working with the flawless Kevin Feige? Well that is the only explanation that does makes sense, he has found a miracle formula. When you say MCU, all you associate it with is success. That is when you say Marvel Cinematic Universe, but please do not look under the dress because, when you do, movies like Iron Man 2 & 3, Thor franchise, Ant-Man 1 & 2, Captain America TFA, Spider-man Homecoming, Avengers AOU, Doctor Strange and others stick their mediocre heads up back at you.
Iron Man [2008] would seems like s sure fire hit, until you reach the 3rd act where the “MCU” cliché is born, villain is corporate bad guy, same suit or tech as the hero, which has gotten a bit stale and repetitive. Surely the 3rd act of Iron Man isn’t anything I can remember as much as his introduction, the quirky dialogue, and the 2nd act where he was pressed against time and his oppressors. The Avengers seemed like a classic, but then again it also reminds me of a TV show in a lot of places. The quality of the FX falls short in some of the daily shots, dialogue seems to be missing the point in others, humor – it’s much more Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D then it is The Dark Knight.
For every great moment in Guardians of the Galaxy, there is some half-baked joke that doesn’t even hit when you re-watch the movie, the soundtrack truly elevates the movie, and the cast had a great chemistry together in the first one, plus it was a fresh stream of blood for the MCU at that point, but it is not a flawless movie. Civil War seemed like a rushed Avengers movie and not a Captain America solo flick.
When Batman V Superman Dawn of justice came out in the same year, it was criticized about showing brief clips of future members like Aquaman, Flash, Wonder Woman and Cyborg. When Captain America literally gave us Spider-man and Black Panther introduced in a movie that had the original cast of the Avengers, plus the so called “New Avengers”, that wasn’t mentioned as a complaint.
Batman V Superman was the movie that was attacked as a rushed path to Justice League, this is something that we already saw in Iron man 2 [2010], where the original Avengers line up had Hawkeye and Black Widow and Nick Fury, but we got two Iron Man movies in less than 3 years apart and one of them had Widow , S.H.I.E.L.D and Fury introduced, plus a War Machine heavy presence just so we can justify their presence in Avengers. Something that Marvel seems to adopt for low grossing first instalments since then, is the inclusion of multiple supporting characters. That was overlooked heavy in criticism for the movie, as with many MCU movies. Not that I am against the idea, but you can hate it in one franchise and then champion it in another. There is pattern here, that goes, well Iron Man should have made more, lets add some side characters, well let’s use them in Winter Soldier too, Ant-Man is the only one that did it properly by using a character like Wasp. She has always been a 100 % tied to Ant-man character, so it only makes sense. Thor had HULK and many others in Ragnarok, and I expect the same for a possible Doctor Strange sequel.
Many people are using internet clichés for the DC Films universe as flop and failure, but let’s be a bit more specific here. What is failure, a number on a specific website? Is Rotten Tomatoes the ultimate guide to taste, I sincerely disagree. If I need to follow that logic, then I need to be watching movies like Sharkanado [82%], which is against common sense. There is a vast majority of cult classic movies that helped shape cinema as we know it, that are currently scored lower that a Thor Ragnarok, honestly as much as I like comic book properties, I would even dare put them in the same conversation as the Godfather or Shawshank Redemption. It’s just not the same, you cannot use this one metric to belittle DC Films and pretend that Disney invented the genre, there have been huge comic book blockbusters since the 70’s, there have been cinematic universes before. Superman 78 adjusted for 2018 is a 1.3 Billion dollar movie, it features not one character outside of his own lore. Batman 89 is worth about 900 Million in today’s ticket prices, and the Nolan trilogy not using any other DC heroes made over 2.5 Billion worldwide. Let’s stop pretending Marvel was first in something here, they just did it wise and calculated.
What worked for them is the fact that even though their movies are directed by different directors [Russo’s aside], they look relatively the same and the humor makes them feel pretty much the same [with some minor exceptions like Winter Soldier]. The musical score here is no different, in what feels like an endless loop of temp music and nothing that you can remember, it’s like a constant factory for the same score [I would point to the Avengers theme as the one that I can distinguish from everything else].
If we are to judge the DC’s films, that started with Man of Steel and are still going strong, only based on Rotten Tomatoes, then they should be well under anything Marvel does, however if we are to look audience scores, things are pretty lined up.
Once Aquaman drops this December, and since we now have seen a 5-minute trailer that looks awesome and has gotten great reactions from everyone, I can see this movie making a nice 700 Million or more total worldwide box office grosses. With that happening we will now have a “full DC phase 1” line up to compare vs the Phase 1 MCU movies numbers wise. Yes, I am fully aware that Marvel Phase 1 happened between 2008 and 2012, but even adjusted for ticket price inflation, DC will now sell the same amount of tickets as Marvel [Disney]. Currently adjusted for ticket price inflation DC Films has sold around 434,457 seats compared to MCU phase 1 with 491,466 seats. Even if Aquaman performs like Thor ticket wise, on the money side DC’s first 5 have already grossed as much as the MCU first 6 movies, so Aquaman will only add money to go past 4 billion. So, it’s not as bad as bloggers seem to make it look.
With that said Aquaman with a Thor performance looks like 56 661 seats sold to tie in the DCEU and MCU for sold seats. Pretty nice for a hated franchise.
Also the movies coming from DC to maybe shape an imaginary Phase 2, don’t look bad at all. We have Shazam with a very new and unexplored aesthetic in the style of BIG [ a favorite of mine] with a superhero twist, followed by Wonder Woman 84, that has already proved it can gross good numbers with its previous instalment [821 Million], so we expect that number to be even bigger here. Then we have Birds of Prey, that if done right might be shooting for that Suicide Squad box office numbers and we have a low budget Joker movie, that will be profitable for Warner’s and DC in most scenarios. On top of that we are looking into a early 2019 Batman pre-production start and a possible Flash movie shooting next year. Let’s take that in and assume some things, which are mostly assumptions, not facts. As much as I want to believe that, one thing is for sure, this is speculation, not data. Unlike most bloggers that claim to know it all, I will definitely make a separation between the pure speculation and facts.
Aquaman in 2018 could have the same seats sold as Thor [which personally I think it will beat] and the total box office numbers will be ranging from 509 Million to 521 Million, now that’s the bad estimate, if we assume Aquaman does Wonder Woman [2017] numbers then we are in for a range of 828 to 850 Million, a BVS DOJ like performance can put it in the high 900-930 Million range. That’s based on those movies sold seats and the ticket price of a movie in 2018.
Shazam can start off with a low gross for a first-time property and achieve a nice 600 Million plus box office or surprise us and end in the 700 million range. Personally, I do not see much competition besides Hellboy in that time frame for it, not to perform well.
Wonder Woman 84, in 2019 and a higher ticket price could very well out gross the first one and end up in the low 900 Million range or more. It will be in the company of the new terminator movie and Frozen 2. We know Frozen will make money, but I think the same audience will want to see Wonder Woman 84 as well, as for the terminator, that franchise hasn’t had a good entry since the sequel, so not as worried for it.
Birds of prey could go low 700 million or even less if not very well made, but if it’s received well, then we can hope for a 700 Million plus range, depending on the competition. One name that sticks out for now is the new Bond movie, but let’s not forget the impact Harley Quinn had even with the negative received Suicide Squad back in 2016, the casting so far has been great, so we expect impressive performance from that as well.
The Batman directed by Matt Reeves could very well compete for that 1 Billion box office, we are talking a dark, gritty take on the caped crusader and not the Joss Whedon funny version of the character. Depending on what date they land, currently unknown, we can hope he will eclipse his competition and return the character to his glory days.
The Flash movie may or may not be shaping up as fast as one hopes, but the comedy driven core of the movie and its directors, even if it does 600 Million plus, it’s an ok start. For this we do not have any basis for estimations, so it’s much harder. Given the popularity of the TV show and how good Quicksilver was received in Days of Future past, we can only hope that this first entry brawls his way up to a nice sizeable world wide box office past the 630 Million mark.
If the Rock pushes for a Black Adam movie in 2020, which is possible due to his schedule, then we can close the 2nd DC phase, Black Adam can rely on Shazam connectivity and the Rock’s star power and end up over-performing in the upper 800 Million range. The Rock has a great social media presence and his star power needs a break from all these jungle associated movies he has been making every month for the past year [well you understand me, when I say I am done with Jungle themed Rock movies for life]
To bring this into a close, DC’s imaginary phase 2 could very well end up to a rough 4.7 Billion plus up to 5 Billion, which will prove, combined with their “phase 1”[ again this would be their first 6 movies], 4.3 Billion [Aquaman added] , and with the MCU’s 2nd phase with a total of 5.179 Billion, we can see that DC Films might be picking up fast and effective and being a very tough competitor.
In closing, if DC Films follows its current plan, it has a nice balanced critical reception within the 55 + % to 100 % and delivers a good few movies, than in phase 3, we might be talking numbers starting from 800 Million plus, for now we can only assume and ponder. But make no mistake, Marvel has had its mediocre movies, just because the bloggers have tried to stir away from that conversation, doesn’t mean that a lot of fans haven’t disliked some of these weaker movies.