It's clear that the North American box office is slowly starting to rebound after last year's closures (a result of the COVID-19 pandemic), and while there's still a long way to go, Black Widow is eyeing some very impressive opening weekend numbers next month.
According to Box Office Pro, long-range tracking is pointing to an opening weekend in the range of $65 million - $90 million. Ultimately, it could gross as much as $155 million - $255 million during its entire run, and while these are very early numbers, they bode well for the Marvel Studios movie.
It's been a long time (July 2019) since fans have been able to watch a big screen Marvel Cinematic Universe adventure, so there's a lot of excitement. A Black Widow solo outing is something fans have demanded for years now, so there's definitely a built-in interest there.
The site also reveals that, "While ticketing services haven’t officially commented yet, our internal modeling suggests pre-sales (which went live last week) are also highly indicative of the demand for a return to theaters. Black Widow is out-pacing all pandemic-era releases to-date, notably A Quiet Place Part II, F9, and Godzilla vs. Kong."
Piracy, that day-and-date debut on Disney+'s Premier Access service, and general discomfort about sitting in a crowded movie theater are all likely to hurt Black Widow. In the pre-pandemic era, it's a blockbuster that would have easily earned upwards of $1 billion, but that won't be happening now.
That doesn't mean it won't be success, though, and this looks set to be the start of a good year for Marvel Studios. However, you'd best believe Disney will be keeping an eye on those streaming numbers...