Avatar: Fire and Ash is 2025's final huge blockbuster, and the threequel has finally hit tracking boards. According to Deadline (via SFFGazette.com), the James Cameron-helmed movie is eying a debut of between $100 million - $130 million at the North American box office.
The trade expects a $110 million opening, which is below Avatar: The Way of Water's $134.1 million haul in 2022. The key difference is that it was the long-awaited follow-up to 2009's Avatar, meaning excitement was a little higher.
That also "underperformed," as tracking suggested it would hit $150 million - $175 million. Ultimately, the Avatar franchise doesn't live or die on its domestic debut; international numbers have been massive for these movies from the start, hence the second movie's eventual global haul of $2.343 billion.
As the trade points out, "For Avatar: Way of Water to come out and open to $134M, 13 years after the original movie's $77M opening — well, that was fantastic. When we’re talking about the opening for Avatar: Fire and Ash, consider Avatar: Way of Water's domestic start essentially the ceiling in regards to a first weekend comp."
Crucially, when all was said and done, Avatar: The Way of Water made 5x as much as its domestic debut, grossing $688.4 million in the U.S. and Canada. For comparison, Avatar made 10x more than its debut, grossing $785.2 million by the end of its run.
Avatar: Fire and Ash is bound to be a hit, but it's far too soon to say whether it can reach the same $2+ billion heights as its predecessors. China no longer contributes record-breaking amounts to Hollywood blockbusters at the international box office, and despite us being even further removed from the pandemic, many moviegoers are still choosing to watch new releases at home when they arrive on Digital or streaming.
Teasing Avatar: Fire and Ash, Cameron recently said, "You’ve got the primary couple, Jake and Neytiri. Obviously at the end of 'The Way of Water,' their eldest son dies. In the typical universe of superheroes and so on, grief is not really dealt with, because it’s an impediment to all the cool stuff you want to see. But I thought, 'Nah, I want to be very authentic about these people emotionally. I want them to be real.'"
"[We've] got the ultimate love story, kind of Romeo and Juliet, you know, Smith and Pocahontas on another planet. And then it gets challenged. Are they going to survive as a relationship?" the filmmaker mused. "You’ve got these new characters, Spider, Kiri, Lo'ak, they all come to real fruition in movie 3. Jake and Quaritch, they’d just be two guys trying to kill each other for six hours of two movies. Sorry, that’s boring."
"Where it gets nuanced is when they’ve got this kid between them, and they’re the two different father figures, and sometimes they have to work together to keep him alive. It becomes much more nuanced as a result of these younger characters. And by the way, if you’re a kid, you’re going follow them. It’s not a family movie about the parents. It’s a family movie about the kids," Cameron concluded.
With Avatar: Fire and Ash, Cameron takes audiences back to Pandora in an immersive new adventure with Marine turned Na’vi leader Jake Sully (Sam Worthington), Na’vi warrior Neytiri (Zoe Saldaña), and the Sully family.
The movie also stars Sigourney Weaver, Stephen Lang, Oona Chaplin, Cliff Curtis, Joel David Moore, CCH Pounder, Edie Falco, David Thewlis, Jemaine Clement, Giovanni Ribisi, Britain Dalton, Jamie Flatters, Trinity Jo-Li Bliss, Jack Champion, Brendan Cowell, Bailey Bass, Filip Geljo, Duane Evans, Jr., and Kate Winslet.
Avatar: Fire and Ash opens in theaters on December 19, 2025.