AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER Currently Tracking To Make Less Than 2009's AVATAR At Domestic Box Office

AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER Currently Tracking To Make Less Than 2009's AVATAR At Domestic Box Office

There's a lot of excitement for James Cameron's Avatar: The Way of Water, though Disney will need to up the ante in terms of marketing because it's tracking to make quite a bit less than its predecessor.

By JoshWilding - Oct 03, 2022 07:10 AM EST
Filed Under: Avatar
Source: Variety (via SFFGazette.com)

Avatar arrived in theaters in 2009 to positive reviews and record-breaking box office numbers. Ultimately, the 3D blockbuster would go on to make more money than anyone could have imagined possible, becoming the highest-grossing movie of all time in the process.

While it briefly lost that title to Avengers: Endgame, a re-release in China during the pandemic saw the James Cameron-helmed sci-fi adventure retake the #1 spot. Last weekend, the remastered version of Avatar earned an additional $30.5 million, but how will the upcoming sequel, Avatar: The Way of Water, perform when it splashes down this December?

Unfortunately, not quite as well as its predecessor.

According to Variety (via SFFGazette.com), current projections point to the movie earning around $650 million at the domestic box office. That's less than the $772 million grossed by Avatar, with the fact that there's no longer much interest in the 3D format a major contributing factor. 

While Avatar: The Way of Water could ultimately exceed expectations, the fact that so many studios attempted to cash in on Avatar's success with lazy 3D conversions - including Marvel Studios - is what ultimately killed the format. Cameron knocking it out of the park could bring people back, but perhaps not enough to help this sequel surpass the first movie's success.

Interestingly, this predicted number also means that Avatar is unlikely to become the biggest title released in 2022. 

That title is currently held by Top Gun: Maverick, a movie that's grossed $700 million in North America and $1.5 billion worldwide. Heading into this year, none of us could have guessed that the Top Gun sequel would shoot down Avatar: The Way of Water's box office prospects, but the Tom Cruise-led blockbuster has massively exceeded expectations. 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever also looks set to break box office records, so it promises to be a very interesting few months!

Avatar: The Way of Water arrives in theaters worldwide on December 16.

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TheWalkingCuban
TheWalkingCuban - 10/3/2022, 7:40 AM
Well no joke obligatory but already used by someone else today nic cage you don’t say gif.
mountainman
mountainman - 10/3/2022, 7:47 AM
$400-500 million domestic. $1.2-4 billion worldwide.
kider2
kider2 - 10/3/2022, 7:51 AM
@mountainman - 1.2-4 billion? That's such a bold prediction here is mine:
$0 - $5 billion.
mountainman
mountainman - 10/3/2022, 8:37 AM
@kider2 - 1.2-1.4 is bold? Obviously I didn’t mean it could make as much as 4 billion.
bobevanz
bobevanz - 10/3/2022, 7:49 AM
The preview for the upcoming sequel was nothing short of mind blowing, word of mouth carried like a mofo with the first one and that's with a c level script. If the story is better, this was easily make 2 billion. Word of mouth means everything lol plus people will need some escapism once the recession really starts going. Buy silver and gold, or spy options lol
mountainman
mountainman - 10/3/2022, 8:38 AM
@bobevanz - The one thing this movie has going for it is absolutely zero competition.
JonAwesome
JonAwesome - 10/3/2022, 8:05 AM
How can tracking be anywhere near accurate when the movie is 2.5 months away from release?
PartyKiller
PartyKiller - 10/3/2022, 8:26 AM
Avatar benefitted from being in the right place at the right time. And the mythology hasn't grown since. No canonical comics or animation. Nothing has been done to maintain or grow fans.

If Cameron has something amazing in the movie that is unlike anything we've seen before, it might do $650 million in the USA. So far though, it looks like a retread. Cameron's overrated, overappreciated T2 was just an inferior retread of T1. Right down to the chase to a bridge, switching vehicles on the bridge, and the chase takes everyone to a factory with elements that can destroy the Terminator. If Way Of Water is just a retread, I doubt it hits $650 million in the USA. But it should be strong in dumber countries.
Razorface1
Razorface1 - 10/3/2022, 8:29 AM
No worries, they just have to keep it 6 months on theaters and then re-release it like 11 times.
mgeoff88
mgeoff88 - 10/3/2022, 8:31 AM
Not really surprising. It’s too late to try and build Avatar into a franchise. They should’ve released a sequel 2-3 years after the original.

The first movie itself had groundbreaking visual effects, but that’s all it really had going for it. T2 had groundbreaking visual effects when it was released in 1991, but it also had well written/developed characters, a great story, thrilling action sequences, and surprisingly, heart.

James Cameron is placing all this emphasis on the amazing visual effects, yet none of that matters, if you don’t have a great story to go along with it.
dragon316
dragon316 - 10/3/2022, 8:55 AM
@mgeoff88 - not all movies need have great story comic movies hood vs bad all time first part of movie hood gets defeated by villain hero learns how be better dearest villian hero wins in end especially if movie is two parter such as avengers end game same situation took longer get to point avengers dough thanos got defeated first half of end game they learn from mistakes defeat him try being dead people back took longer for hero’s win that battle.,

Not all movies need have good story if story remains same all time with different characters such comic book and transformers movies Godzilla
2050
2050 - 10/3/2022, 8:31 AM
It probably won’t hit the heights of the first film, but it’ll do very well nevertheless, especially internationally. Cameron has a huge international following, so it’ll make up any shortcomings the domestic box office may have.
TheHumanSpider2
TheHumanSpider2 - 10/3/2022, 8:47 AM
Yeah, no shit!
No movie is making $3B ever again.
jarcastanon
jarcastanon - 10/3/2022, 10:17 AM
@TheHumanSpider2 - If No Way Home couldn't get past 2 Billion, no movie can, at least until another Avengers gets released.
TheHumanSpider2
TheHumanSpider2 - 10/3/2022, 10:42 AM
@jarcastanon - Only movie I can see pulling those numbers is an eventual Marvel vs DC movie...not even an Avengers movie can pull those number after the pandemic.
jarcastanon
jarcastanon - 10/3/2022, 11:04 AM
@TheHumanSpider2 - Maybe not Kang Dynasty, but I can't see Secret Wars getting less than 2.5 bill
TheHumanSpider2
TheHumanSpider2 - 10/3/2022, 12:55 PM
@jarcastanon - Movie is coming out in 2026, we are ages from that in the current economic and sociological climate...
We'll see, so far the only cbm post-pandemic which managed to break the billion mark was NWH, and it was because it was a very especific case.
dragon316
dragon316 - 10/3/2022, 8:50 AM
Now that people know what to expect who expect it to surpass first one do well as first probably cost more make this sequel be lucky break even if it does
Typhoon20
Typhoon20 - 10/3/2022, 8:59 AM
Remember what Top Gun Maverick was tracking a few months before release ?
Exactly.
Matador
Matador - 10/3/2022, 9:16 AM
Avatar has fizzled itself out in people minds.




James still attempting to ride the coat tails of the first Avatar movie trying to stay relevant and watch when it fails it will blame super hero movies were at fault.
Fares
Fares - 10/3/2022, 9:19 AM
I don't think anyone, Cameron included, had any realistic hope of beating the original record. But I expected higher projections.
xfactor
xfactor - 10/3/2022, 10:24 AM
@Fares - really? Cameron’s comments seems to display otherwise. I doubt it will make anywhere near as the first one, but it’ll still make money.
TheUnworthyThor
TheUnworthyThor - 10/3/2022, 9:35 AM
If the movie makes 650 million domestically then all parties involved will be over the moon and dancing in the streets. That would be a huge win.
slickrickdesigns
slickrickdesigns - 10/3/2022, 9:35 AM
This movies 20 years late
TheCoonII
TheCoonII - 10/3/2022, 9:48 AM
Well seeing as the original is now hated by half the US population it should be expected to make less
Darth258
Darth258 - 10/3/2022, 11:00 AM
Shivermetimbers
Shivermetimbers - 10/3/2022, 12:07 PM
Well, duh...It'll still make a ton of money though.
bkmeijer1
bkmeijer1 - 10/3/2022, 3:39 PM
Obviously. I can see it do a 1 billion worldwide easily though
GoldGuy
GoldGuy - 10/3/2022, 4:27 PM
I mean, that's not saying much, to be fair.
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