Spider-Man: Brand New Day looks set to be the biggest movie of the summer, and it may end up being 2026's highest-grossing blockbuster unless Avengers: Doomsday steals the crown in December (which may be easier said than done with no IMAX screens and Dune: Part Three as competition).
Box Office Theory's long-range tracking for Spider-Man: Brand New Day suggests the movie will have a $228 million opening weekend. On the low end, it's eyeing a $212 million start, but there's a chance the Marvel Studios/Sony Pictures co-production will swing as high as $255 million.
Tracking this far off can only be relied upon to a certain extent, so there's every chance the movie will go higher if it strikes a chord with audiences. It may also go lower if the opposite is true (Supergirl is a good example of that).
In terms of what the movie could make by the end of its domestic run, those range from $475 million to $665 million, with $570 million a solid bet based on that $228 million prediction.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day is guaranteed to hit $1 billion worldwide, but will it become the wall-crawler's first movie to surpass $2 billion? 2021's Spider-Man: No Way Home made it to $1.9 billion, but was arguably a bigger event thanks to the presence of Tobey Maguire and Andrew Garfield. That movie opened with $260.1 million domestically five years ago.
However, Sony has successfully managed to create a lot of intrigue around this movie by revealing little in the way of plot details and making the identity of Stranger Things star Sadie Sink's character a huge talking point among fans.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day is also catering to a wide range of fans by including characters like The Punisher (an R-rated anti-hero) and The Hulk (a veteran Avenger) in the movie.
"This is Tom’s fourth Spider-Man movie," filmmaker Destin Daniel Cretton recently said. "And for some actors, the temptation would be to phone it in or become jaded with the process. But Tom is the opposite. The amount of fun we had making this movie almost seems criminal."
What are your opening weekend projections for Spider-Man: Brand New Day?
In Spider-Man: Brand New Day, it's a Brand New Day for Peter Parker. Fighting crime full-time as Spider-Man in a world that doesn’t remember him—and the pressure of seeing his old friends move on without him—sparks a change in Peter he may not have the power to control.
But that transformation might also be the only thing that can stop a shocking new threat to the city and those he loves - a powerful villain no one can even see. The world may have forgotten Peter Parker, but he hasn’t forgotten them.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day's cast includes Tom Holland, Zendaya, Sadie, Jacob Batalon, Jon Bernthal, Tramell Tillman, Michael Mando, and Mark Ruffalo.
The movie is directed by Destin Daniel Cretton and written by Chris McKenna & Erik Sommers. The film is produced by Kevin Feige, Amy Pascal, Avi Arad and Rachel O'Connor. Executive producers include Louis D'Esposito and David Cain.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day swings into theaters on July 31. The movie opens in the UK on July 29.