AVATAR 2 Re-Release And The Rock's THE SMASHING MACHINE Will Be KO'd By TAYLOR SWIFT Movie At The Box Office

Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl was only announced two weeks ago, but it looks set to dominate both Avatar: The Way of Water's re-release and The Smashing Machine this weekend...

News

By JoshWilding - Oct 04, 2025 06:10 AM EST

Filed Under: Avatar

Source: Deadline

Black Adam ended Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson's hopes to take over the DCEU, while his attempted foray into football with the XFL concluded with a whimper when it was forced to merge with the USFL.

Seeking to repair his image—his sitcom, Young Rock, was cancelled around the same time—Johnson returned to WWE. He received a mixed response from fans after attempting to hijack various storylines, and hasn't been seen in the ring since March. Now, he's focused on starring in the type of movies that have the potential to win him an Oscar.

Moving on from action roles, Johnson has signed up for various dramatic roles, starting with this weekend's A24 Mark Kerr biopic, The Smashing Machine.

Disney, meanwhile, is looking to increase excitement for December's Avatar: Fire and Ash with an Avatar: The Way of Water re-release. The twist? There will be three new preview clips for the threequel attached to the 2022 movie, but audiences won't know which one they're getting.

However, what neither Johnson nor Disney anticipated was some last-minute competition from singer Taylor Swift. Announced last month, Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl looks set to dominate North American theaters this weekend with an estimated $29 million - $31 million opening weekend.

Some estimates point to Swifties pushing the "movie" as high as $40 million, and it's taken premium large format screens from both The Smashing Machine and Avatar: The Way of Water.

The latter is only expected to add $3 million to its $2.3 billion haul this weekend, while the movie that Johnson hopes could see him nab an Oscar (or at least a nomination) is eyeing a $6 million - $7 million start behind One Battle After Another in its second weekend in theaters.

A movie doesn't need to be a box office hit to score awards, of course, but this will come as a blow to Johnson. Still, his status as a guaranteed fide box office draw is arguably behind him, and analysts are pointing fingers squarely at Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl for the UFC movie's drop from initial $20 million opening estimates.

The Smashing Machine has been awarded a B- CinemaScore from audiences, and has 73% on Rotten Tomatoes from critics and 79% from audiences. For comparison's sake, Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl has an A+ CinemaScore and 98% on the Popcornmeter (only two reviews have been counted, both of which were positive).

What will you be heading to theaters to watch this weekend?

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18 Comments

Mrcool210 - 10/4/2025, 6:32 AM

I have nothing against Taylor Swift but I hate the effect she seems to have. Like I'm sorry a concert movie should not ever be serious competition. Sure it should best avatar 2, that's a re release. But if the smashing machine doesn't do well you know the rock will never try serious acting ever again.

If you like her great more power too you but don't invade every other aspect of life with Taylor Swift. She's fine as a musician she can stay as just that please.

dragon316 - 10/4/2025, 7:49 AM

@Mrcool210 - I feel same way but he stupid people say Taylor swift make nfl popular with more fans how is it every single Taylor swift movie she was in never hit billion , but any movie she’s not in have made billion avatar , avengers end game Deadpool 3 , aquaman long list .,

Her movies do we’ll never make billion come close to billion dumb ass butt kissing nfl and reporter need see that

dragon316 - 10/4/2025, 7:50 AM

@dragon316 - true story movies don’t usually do that some if there lucky will make profit true story movies don’t usually do well except revenant and titanic

vectorsigma - 10/4/2025, 8:09 AM

@Mrcool210 - i agree, her and her hoards of sheep are redefining fandoms and the music industry in general.

They have this movement of immortalizing her as the GOAT of the music industry through marketing and empty milestones even by being mid musically.

This is similar to what Lebron is doing in basketball

TheVisionary25 - 10/4/2025, 10:53 AM

@Mrcool210 - I hope that’s not true about the Rock since this is the most interested I have been on what he does next for awhile…

Granted he’ll likely continue to do the big franchise films but he’s also got another movie with Benny Safdie after this aswell as Darren Aronofsky & Martin Scorsese so I hope he goes through with that

I will say I think box office matters less here then awards.

Feralwookiee - 10/4/2025, 8:11 AM

Does she get naked in this?

EskimoJ - 10/4/2025, 11:15 AM

@Feralwookiee - 🤮

TheOtherOn - 10/4/2025, 8:18 PM

@Feralwookiee - Believe me, there's NOT much to see. In fact I would rather NOT see her in "natural" form without clothes. Even with all the plastic she puts on herself before appearing on camera, hardly makes her tolerable on eyes. And by this reply, you probably have guess how my ears feel about her "music" and "singing", if that's what she call all that crap.

On a side note....

"Black Adam ended Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson's hopes to take over the DCEU, while his attempted foray into football with the XFL concluded with a whimper when it was forced to merge with the USFL."

Josh, as ALWAYS, making sure to throw shades at The Rock at the start of every article about him. 🤪

Feralwookiee - 10/4/2025, 8:27 PM

@EskimoJ - Come on man.
You wouldn't tongue-punch her fartbox? 😛

Lisa89 - 10/4/2025, 9:13 AM

It's essentially a 90 minute advertisement for her new album and AMC begged her to put it in theaters. The industry is dying and needs all the help it can get.

kdav - 10/4/2025, 9:24 AM

This movie is not changing the box office numbers in any way shape or form. It will make loads of money but not 1 person attending is standing in the lobby saying "hmm Taylor Swift Commercial or the Avatar re-release, which one to choose?" People that want to see any of the movies being released this weekend will still be doing so.

RegularPoochie - 10/4/2025, 9:29 AM

Doesn't matter, Dwayne is getting an Oscar for Smashing Machine

TheVisionary27 - 10/4/2025, 11:57 AM

@RegularPoochie - If he doesn’t the movie will net best director, best hair & makeup and best supporting actress for Blunt.

RegularPoochie - 10/4/2025, 12:41 PM

@TheVisionary27 - yes and it's not even close. The movie is amazing, tho I don't care about Dwayne much, but he does amazing work in this as the other cast, director etc. I knew this story beforehanfäd, but it's cool to see Kerr's story to be told for larger audience.

LenSpiderman - 10/4/2025, 1:50 PM

@TheVisionary27 - it should get a platinum plated titanium Oscar crusted in diamonds for hair and makeup just for convincing the rock to wear some damn hair.

LenSpiderman - 10/4/2025, 2:01 PM

Smashing Machine is not blockbuster material. It’s closer to arthouse fare. Avatar 2 rerelease is as much an advertisement shtick as TSwift’s thing, and it already had its moment and made a boatload of money. Meanwhile TSwift’s thing is entirely created and designed for consumerism, so of course it will most likely do the best numbers, particularly because its window of relevance is much more narrow. Certainly people might watch it on streaming because it’s free and they’re fans, but the time to watch her new thing is right now. All the fans already own or have listened to her new album (even I’ve given it a listen and I don’t like her music) so if you wait to see this thing, you’ll miss the boat. Disney could have certainly waited a week or done the avatar thing last week, and Smashing Machine would have done better numbers if they had been able to avoid the competition, but its aim is most likely awards over money, and will see a boost in popularity come awards season.

grif - 10/4/2025, 2:18 PM

[frick] all of this

TheVisionary25 - 10/4/2025, 3:12 PM

Man , at this point I feel bad for the Rock even if some of his failure is self inflicted…

Smashing Machine has looked good imo atleast so I’ll definitely give it a shot but I don’t think it in theaters.

Anyway , I did see Play Dirty and thought it was decent..

In terms of Shane Black’s directorial efforts , it’s not as good as Kiss Kiss Bang Bang or The Nice Guys but certainly better then The Predator.

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AVATAR 2 Re-Release And The Rock's THE SMASHING MACHINE Will Be KO'd By TAYLOR SWIFT Movie At The Box Office

Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl was only announced two weeks ago, but it looks set to dominate both Avatar: The Way of Water's re-release and The Smashing Machine this weekend...

James Cameron Suggests AVATAR 4 And 5 Aren't Guaranteed; Reveals FIRE AND ASH's Mammoth Runtime

James Gunn Teases MAN OF TOMORROW Progress With An Epic Pile Of Storyboards

DISCLAIMER: As a user generated site and platform, ComicBookMovie.com is protected under the DMCA (Digital Millenium Copyright Act) and "Safe Harbor" provisions.