This won't have been the news Warner Bros. was hoping for.
According to Deadline, Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom's three-week tracking is currently pointing to a four-day opening of just $50 million when it opens on December 22. Not helping matters is the fact Christmas Eve is on a Sunday, so there's at least a slim chance the sequel will find its sea legs when Christmas is over.
In 2018, Aquaman splashed down with $67.8 million but eventually grossed $1.1 billion worldwide. There's at least a chance this follow-up will take off similarly, but it will have to do so without the near-$300 million haul its predecessor accumulated in China (the Middle Kingdom has largely rejected Hollywood fare in recent years).
Reviews will be crucial to Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom's success and Warner Bros. has yet to pull the trigger on its last-minute marketing campaign; for example, we're expecting heavy promotion from lead star Jason Momoa and at least one more trailer.
Tracking has been all over the place this year, but when it comes to comic book movies, they haven't fared well.
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 opened $12 million beneath expectations with $118 million and The Marvels debuted with $47 million despite early projections of more than $70 million. In The Flash's case, that was aiming for $70 million but debuted with a mere $55 million.
If Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom also falls short, then it could be a disaster. However, the DCEU is being rebooted as the DCU by DC Studios and Momoa has already pretty much confirmed his time as Arthur Curry ends with this movie. While that is going to lessen interest from moviegoers, it's not as if Warner Bros. will be banking on the sequel being a box office hit in order to pave the way for a threequel.
Director James Wan and Aquaman himself, Jason Momoa - along with Patrick Wilson, Amber Heard, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II and Nicole Kidman - return in the sequel to the highest-grossing DC film of all time: Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom.
Having failed to defeat Aquaman the first time, Black Manta, still driven by the need to avenge his father’s death, will stop at nothing to take Aquaman down once and for all. This time Black Manta is more formidable than ever before, wielding the power of the mythic Black Trident, which unleashes an ancient and malevolent force. To defeat him, Aquaman will turn to his imprisoned brother Orm, the former King of Atlantis, to forge an unlikely alliance. Together, they must set aside their differences in order to protect their kingdom and save Aquaman’s family, and the world, from irreversible destruction.
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom will be released on December 22.