BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER Could Fly As High As $190 Million After Massive $84 Million Opening Day

BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER Could Fly As High As $190 Million After Massive $84 Million Opening Day

Things are looking very good for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever during its opening weekend, and some analysts believe the sequel could go as high as $190 million! Find more details after the jump...

News
By JoshWilding - Nov 12, 2022 12:11 PM EST
Source: Deadline

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever scored the tenth-highest opening day of all time yesterday with a massive $84 million, but exactly how high can it go this weekend?

That's a question everyone is asking today, and we won't know for sure until Monday morning. The current estimate points to the Black Panther sequel grossing somewhere between $175 million - $185 million this weekend, a figure that would give it the second-highest opening weekend of 2022 behind only Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness.

However, as Deadline notes, there are those who believe the sequel could soar as high as $190 million. Either way, this is a great result for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, and proof the MCU remains Hollywood's biggest draw. 

Veterans Day is causing some uncertainty seeing as it fell on a Friday, and all signs currently point to the sequel landing somewhere in that $180 million - $185 million range. Expecting this movie to top 2018's Black Panther was always a little unrealistic, especially when you look at how box office takings in general have fallen since the pandemic. 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever isn't receiving the same kind of Oscar buzz as its predecessor, though Angela Bassett's performance is likely to land her a "Best Supporting Actress" nod next year.

"Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ranks among Marvel Studios' best movies, and is an emotional, uplifting, tour de force of a blockbuster," we said in our latest review of the movie. "Letitia Wright delivers a powerhouse performance, while Angela Bassett’s majestic work will leave you reeling."

As always, word of mouth will be crucial for the movie's success in the weeks ahead, but the response from fans has been extremely positive so far. The current Audience Score on Rotten Tomatoes, for example, is a stellar 95%, putting Black Panther: Wakanda Forever up there with the MCU's best titles.

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is now playing in theaters. Watch an action-packed new TV spot below.
 


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CapA
CapA - 11/12/2022, 12:11 PM
My guess was 170-180.
Scarilian
Scarilian - 11/12/2022, 12:57 PM
@CapA -
BP2 did $84m on the Friday domestically
MoM did $90m on the Friday domestically, for a weekend domestic total of $187m

Could definitely see the domestic total being $180m as you estimated by the end of the weekend. MoM could be a good comparison going forward, the main things to watch will be the drop between week one and two - with Avatar in four weeks or so, it's probably going to have short legs.
OmegaDaGrodd
OmegaDaGrodd - 11/12/2022, 12:12 PM
"DE BLACK PONTHA LIIVVVESSS!!!"
thewanderer
thewanderer - 11/12/2022, 12:13 PM
Cold and rainy/snowy weather in the Midwest might help boost Saturday numbers.
Feralwookiee
Feralwookiee - 11/12/2022, 12:17 PM
It's not mentioned anywhere in the article, but I assume these estimates are DOMESTIC and not worldwide?
AmazingFILMporg
AmazingFILMporg - 11/12/2022, 12:29 PM
@Feralwookiee -

It's domestic
PatientXero
PatientXero - 11/12/2022, 12:19 PM
So brave and accepting and inspiring. Praise Disney. I especially love how they honored Boseman with the Target team up. Truly inspiring.
AmazingFILMporg
AmazingFILMporg - 11/12/2022, 12:26 PM
It might hit 200 million now.💪💥❤️
TyrantBossMedia
TyrantBossMedia - 11/12/2022, 12:26 PM
2nd highest after Multiverse of Madness. The question is what is the drop going to be after word of mouth gets out.
Studios bank their money early on when people go in relatively blind to a movie.

Most commonly with Marvel movies we have seen a 60-70% drop between week one and week two.

Will this have a similar drop?

Time will tell.
Vigor
Vigor - 11/12/2022, 12:36 PM
@TyrantBossMedia - it's reviewed very well. I don't see a sharp drop like black Adam had, which had mediocre reviews
Scarilian
Scarilian - 11/12/2022, 12:48 PM
@TyrantBossMedia -
Disney/Marvel really needs a $1bn movie in Phase 4 other than Spider-man: NWH - and I'm not entirely sure BP2 will reach that amount. As you mentioned we'll need to wait to see how it performs, but at the moment it's tracking around the same as MoM and if the drop off is steep (coupled with Avatar 2 after 4 weeks) then it may have its legs cut short and wind up failing to make $1bn.

It'll definitely break-even and make a profit, but unless it passes $1bn I'm not entirely sure they'll deliver upon a sequel. Stakeholders want proof a franchise is viable, normally via increasing returns, and this time round Disney are spending $250m (compared to $200m) for what will likely give them a profit of maybe $300m if it hits $1bn.

I'm curious about the film financially because if this fails to perform $1bn then I'd expect them to reassess and apply changes to some late Phase 5 and Phase 6 films (2024 films). We may already be seeing signs of them having concerns given Ant-Man 3's trailer focused on showing off his variants and we're getting remarks about the OG Fantastic Four having a cameo in Deadpool 3 along with potential casting information for Fanta5tic as early as January.
TyrantBossMedia
TyrantBossMedia - 11/12/2022, 1:20 PM
@Vigor - I'm not talking about Black Adam I am talking about Doctor Strange 2, Thor and there other Marvel movies.

But since you mentioned Black Adam while the critics have it at 40% on RT, the fans have it at 89%.
Yet it still had a box office drop off.

Doctor Strange had a critic score of 74% and a fan rating of 85%, yet it still had a 67% box office drop in its second week.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2022/05/16/box-office-why-doctor-strange-2-dropped-67-last-weekend/?sh=419bf90b1562


Thor Love and Blunder had a 64% critic score and a 77% audience score.
But it also had a 68% box office drop in its second week.

https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/newsletter/2022-07-19/after-the-box-office-drop-for-thor-love-and-thunder-is-there-a-marvel-crisis-netflix-metaverse-disney-the-wide-shot

And even the well received Spider-Man No Way Home (93% critics,98% fans) had a 68% drop in it's second week.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2021/12/27/what-spider-man-no-way-home-68-percent-second-weekend-drop-says-about-marvel-star-wars-and-christmas-box-office/?sh=f2e9e8644524

So back to my original question, "Most commonly with Marvel movies we have seen a 60-70% drop between week one and week two. Will this have a similar drop?"

Based on the above evidence, it seems to be the norm for Disney/Marvel movies in Phase Bore so....all signs point to Yes......but as I also stated "Time will tell".


Again, This is not about Black Adam.
TyrantBossMedia
TyrantBossMedia - 11/12/2022, 1:35 PM
@Scarilian - Agreed. Strange 2, Thor 4 and even Spider-Man NWH dropped 68% in their second weeks. There is no reason to think that BP2 will suffer a similar fate.

While the critics and audience ratings are high 84% Critics, 95% audience, Spider-Man NWH had a higher rating at 93% critics, 98% fans and that dropped 68% in week two as well.

You are right about the budget. At $250 million for BP2 that means the overall budget is closer to $750 million which means like you said, $250-$300million profit if it earns $1 Billion.
But with the trends that doesn't seem likely.

Thor 4 cost $250 million to produce as well and only earned $700 million at the box office.
That pretty much puts it at a loss if the overall expenditure was $750 million as estimated.

Spider-Man NWH cost $200 million but earned $1.9 billion worldwide Box office.
So overall budget estimate $600 million. That give it a nice $1.3 Billion profit.

As we agree, $1 Billion will offer some profit, but not he lucrative profit that studios want that something that low would not be considered incredibly successful in the eyes of studios.
TheHumanSpider2
TheHumanSpider2 - 11/12/2022, 1:50 PM
@TyrantBossMedia - 60%, probably.
But this doesnt have any competition until Avatar 2, I believe.
TheWalkingCuban
TheWalkingCuban - 11/12/2022, 2:07 PM
@TyrantBossMedia - well if it has a smaller OW than MoM, I will be surprised. However I expect legs to make up for it. I do t see this movie making less than 500 mill, I’ll call it 550
TyrantBossMedia
TyrantBossMedia - 11/12/2022, 2:27 PM
@TheWalkingCuban - I don't have an reason to think this movie won't make $700-$750 million based on history and critical and audience reviews, but even then it will just break even.

But then word of mouth could affect that and who knows, but I don't think it clears $1 billion...but time will tell.
TheWalkingCuban
TheWalkingCuban - 11/12/2022, 2:36 PM
@TyrantBossMedia - wait 7-750 worldwide? Yowsers. The billion is this movie’s to LOSE, and with good RT and WoM, I think, in my often wrong opinion, that the B is guaranteed. If not, then the neighborhood of Strange 2. Bout 950. But I see it having much better legs. We’ll see next weekend
Nightcrawler1
Nightcrawler1 - 11/12/2022, 7:16 PM
@TheHumanSpider2 - wait, Black Adam is still showing… I take it back, you’re right. No competition until Avatar 🤣
MisterDoctor217
MisterDoctor217 - 11/12/2022, 12:37 PM
M’Baku is my daddy.




So is Namor but I don’t see him often, he’s undersea.
SonOfAGif
SonOfAGif - 11/12/2022, 12:44 PM
The "GoWokeGoBroke" crowd is extremely silent all of a sudden.
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