Despite an impressive final trailer and the buzz surrounding some big cameos, opening projections for The Marvels are not on the rise. In fact, it’s quite the opposite.
According to Deadline, all signs currently point to the Captain Marvel sequel opening with $60 million, a fairly steep decline from the $75 million - $80 million estimates we saw last month. Some prohections have even been lowered to $50+ million, so who knows where it will land.
These numbers put The Marvels in the same ballpark as Ant-Man ($57.2 million) and Eternals ($71.2 million). The movie cost $200 million to produce and will face stiff competition from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes next weekend. Why didn’t Marvel Studios bring it forward by a week to November 3? Your guess is as good as ours.
Overseas, The Marvels is eyeing an $80 million debut for a global bow of $140 million. That’s beneath Eternals ($160 million) and Black Widow ($148 million), with the latter released in theaters and on Disney+ during the pandemic.
The trade notes that, "Currently presales for The Marvels are just north of $5M which are on par with Warner Bros/DC’s The Flash, that movie flaming out with a $55M start stateside…The worry is that if previews, which start Thursday at 3PM, come in north of $6M, The Marvels’ weekend will crater to $40M+."
Where has it all gone wrong? The SAG-AFTRA strike has definitely proven to be the biggest obstacle and one not even the MCU has managed to successfully overcome. Some will be quick to point to "superhero fatigue" being the reason for The Marvels crashing and burning this weekend, though a dismal marketing campaign and a possible lack of interest in the characters are among the other possible issues.
That’s a surprise after Captain Marvel headlined her own $1 billion blockbuster and Ms. Marvel remains Marvel Studios’ best-reviewed Disney+ releases. Analysts will be trying to figure out this one for a while. It’s just a shame a female-led superhero movie with a female director at the helm will be used as a scapegoat for the MCU’s so-called decline.
The Marvels has secured a release in China, but the world is different now and it’s likely to earn just $15 million in the Middle Kingdom during its opening weekend.
Will you be watching the movie in theaters this weekend? Let us know your thoughts in the comments section below.