By now, you've no doubt heard that there's a chance movie theaters won't be able to re-open in late July/early August as planned, but some new forecasts point to them possibly staying closed until...next year?!
Cowen's Doug Creutz has shared a new outlook for the future of theaters, explaining that while, "we had previously assumed that the spread of COVID-19 would be relatively halted, with social distancing requirements significantly lessened by late 2020. We have now extended that timeline out to at least mid-2021; the situation remains very fluid, and we do not rule out the possibility that the impact could last even longer."
Simply put, he believes many theaters won't be able to re-open until the middle of next year, and goes so far as to say that he doesn't anticipate any new films released in "fiscal year 2020" (for Disney, that ends in September). "We now expect domestic theaters to be largely closed until mid-2021, in part because we don't think studios will be interested in releasing their largest movies into a capacity-constrained footprint," Creutz adds.
The news for theme park fans is no better as he expects that Disney World's "heavy capacity constraints will prevail until at least mid-2021," and notes that "there is a meaningful probability that the park could be forced to close again."
As for Disneyland, that "remains closed, and we expect that to persist due to California's more cautious approach in dealing with the virus." Needless to say, the outlook is bleak, and things really aren't looking good right now.
Things change all the time, of course, but with COVID-19 cases on the rise in the United States, these forecasts sounds alarmingly accurate.
What do you guys think?