We've seen lots of estimates (well, guesstimates) for Superman's opening weekend in recent weeks. Some of those went as high as $185 million, and a few pundits didn't shy away from throwing out the $200 million figure.
The first DC Studios movie has finally hit tracking boards today, with Deadline reporting that it has a $125 million - $145 million outlook on NRG. However, the trade has spoken to various distribution sources who believe the real range is $90 million - $125 million.
The report looks at whether Superman is considered a "first choice" title with moviegoers, concluding that it's currently beneath Thor: Love & Thunder ($144.1 million opening), The Batman ($134 million opening), and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 ($118.4 million).
That's not a bad place to be, but here's where things get a little worrying. As the trade puts it, "First choice for Captain America: Brave New World is higher than Superman's by 71% at the same point in time. That movie opened at $88.8 million. In addition, Superman's first choice is 64% behind that of Matt Reeves' The Batman."
Superman did well in terms of pre-sale tickets (topping The Fantastic Four: First Steps), but it's typically the hardcore fans who buy those up this far in advance. The DC brand is tarnished thanks to the DCEU, and sources tell Deadline that, "[When] it comes to Superman's opening weekend outlook, it boils down to reviews."
At first glance, these numbers are a little concerning. Assuming Superman can top $100 million, DC Studios will likely be pleased, but it's how well the movie performs in the weeks that follow which will count. The odds are stacked against the Man of Steel, as he finds himself sandwiched between Jurassic World Rebirth and The Fantastic Four: First Steps.
The Hollywood Reporter is running with a $135 million debut for Superman, but has similarly heard that $90 million - $125 million is a strong possibility.
Recently, James Gunn denied claims that the DCU's future hinges on Superman's success. "That’s not the truth for me. My truth is this is the first movie out of DC Studios. Other people may say, 'It’s gotta be a home run, nothing else.' I’m like, 'No, I’d be very happy with a double.'"
"F***ing Iron Man wasn’t the be-all and end-all. It wasn’t Avatar. We are doing something that’s a piece of the puzzle. It’s not the puzzle itself. It’s just this one movie. It’s not everything," the filmmaker and studio executive continued. "I'm responsible for my piece of the pie. I’ve gotta make my budget back. I’ll be very happy with that."
Stay tuned for updates on Superman as we have them.
Superman, DC Studios' first feature film to hit the big screen, is set to soar into theaters worldwide this summer from Warner Bros. Pictures.
In his signature style, James Gunn takes on the original superhero in the newly imagined DC universe with a singular blend of epic action, humor and heart, delivering a Superman who’s driven by compassion and an inherent belief in the goodness of humankind.
The movie stars David Corenswet in the dual role of Superman/Clark Kent, Rachel Brosnahan as Lois Lane and Nicholas Hoult as Lex Luthor.
Also appearing are Edi Gathegi, Anthony Carrigan, Nathan Fillion, Isabela Merced, Skyler Gisondo, Sara Sampaio, María Gabriela de Faría, Wendell Pierce, Alan Tudyk, Pruitt Taylor Vince, Neva Howell, and Milly Alcock.
Superman arrives in theaters on July 11, 2025.