EDITORIAL: The Dark Knight Rises at The Box Office

It will win some awards... it just won't recieve enough money at the box office to break records even if it is the last nolan film of this franchise.

The Dark Knight Rises will be amazing. But won't beat Avengers in terms of money at box office.

One of the reasons i think Avengers did so well was, besides the 3D tickets, was family. I mean, people brought their five year olds to see the movie. WTF! How much can they comprehend at that age?

I don't expect a family to bring thier five year old to see Bane snap someone's neck.

@nuclear139 You can't seriously believe TDKR will beat the all time weekend domestic record set by Avengers. Harry Potter had the record at $179 million and it was smashed to little bits. And before you take my words the wrong way I am not saying it will fail at the box-office or that it will be a bad film. Avengers was a global event and gamechanger the likes of which had never been seen before.

And concerning this silly argument about 3D being responible for its box-office numbers and not ticket sales I beg to differ. 2011 ticket sales were the lowest since 1997, the same year the example you used (Titanic) set records. But that illustrates my point you say, guess again, ticket sales for 2012 already are on pace to reverse 4 years of declines. Heres a quote from the New York times.

"The turnout for “The Avengers” is being called a record by the movie industry even though independently verified box-office data is available going back only about 30 years.

The movie industry is trying hard to reverse four consecutive summers of declining attendance. Ticket sales for the summer period last year totaled $4.38 billion; attendance was about 543 million, the lowest tally since 1997. This year has been strong so far, with ticket sales up 16 percent to $3.6 billion and attendance up 18 percent."

I applaud your enthusiasm but don't let it get the best of you. One thing we can agree on is that it will make money, just not worlds #3 all time money.

;)

Nice article. I've seen varied numbers on the ticket sales end for opening weekend TDK vs. Avengers and most put the gap at about 3 million, in Avengers favor. I like the contrast you make on the actual padding of 3D prices. Though TDKR won't have that to back it's monetary earnings, I wouldn't underestimate IMAX and I feel it gets left out too often in these debates. I'm sure it's boost is no more significant than the 3D but it is there and people will go out of their way to see a good flic in IMAX. People in my region will plan an entire day around going to Nashville or St. Louis(2 hour drive to either from my location or 3.5 hours to Louisville are the nearest ones) in which they do shopping, eating, etc. and all based around seeing an IMAX showing.

All things considered, it's hard to tell what will happen. On one hand I don't hear much buzz outside our community about TDKR, but what I have heard leads me to believe that everyone already knows to expect another epic telling. I think it's a given to many, "The new Batman flic? Well duh, yea I'ma see that, what do you think?!" I'd like to see it outdo TDK for sure and if any movie knocks Avengers down a peg, it should be another CBM. I don't see it toppling the Avengers, but it isn't impossible.


Being Batman makes up for the lack of family appeal in the atmosphere of these films, which it undoubtedly does lack as 'family' stuff is much more light-hearted. Sorry you don't see that, but it does have a basis in reality and is the very reason most every film caters to PG-13 or lower ratings. Not a single movie has ever grossed over 1 billion, even including inflation adjustments to today's standards, with a rating above PG-13. When children by the thousands beg parents to go see a particular movie, it shows. On this basis alone Spider-Man will be a success regardless of how good or bad it turns out. It's part of the reason the Transformers are so hugely successful despite being terrible in story and acting. Kids [frick]ing love it, they plead and beg parents to go see it, mom decides to make a day of it because superheroes and adventure stories are good wholesome American fun and calls her sister so now there's 4 adults and 5 kids going to see it on Saturday. Family appeal is a very real thing, suggesting otherwise leads me to believe you probably don't have children, which is fine but it put's you outside that debate. I have kids and I can tell you half the movies we rent/buy/see in theaters wouldn't go down if not for my kids and what they like... [frick]in' Lorax.

Justified1, I have 3 kids and I can tell you a 2 year old comprehends more than you probably think a 5 year old could lol. My oldest understood plot progression and satire quite sharply at 3. She's 6 now and just asked me the other day to explain "irony" to her... I've yet to see if she gets it lol.

NOLANITE,awww where've you been man? Yea you and your ilk don't like eating shit do they. Go back to your troll hole douchebag, you offer nothing to these debates. All of you "-ites" are a plague on intelligent debate and respectable opinion. Most may ignore you, but I feel like if you ignore a tumor, it won't go away. Liars, instigators, and likely thieves as I'm sure you and your Kool-Aid sipping cultists back at the compound pirated a copy of Avengers as your zealotry prevents you from giving money to Marvel. I love picking on your kind at the comic shop, we have 3 of them. They're brave online too and brag about it in the shop, but they don't dare insult me to my face, or a few others that are either physically imposing or smart enough to make them look retarded... though they're quick to try to gang up on the less intimidating, more timid regulars at the store. That's what kind of pathetic trogs you all are.

Since this is your first article, may I give a helpful hint? Learn what a paragraph is and use them.

TDKR will do well. Will it beat The Avengers-- probably not. Who cares. These never-ending comparisons have become tedious and boring. We as a group have now come to be easily characterized as petty and myopic, caring more about frivolous box office sales than the actual content and care given to the characters we are supposed to love.

Joss Whedon summed this up with the best and most gracious response in a letter to his fans:

"Interviewer: I've seen a lot of a talk about "the Avengers" vs "the Dark Knight Rises". How will you feel if you're eclipsed by Nolan?

JW: I'm glad I made you ask that. I will feel sad. But let's look at the bigger picture, and I can't say this enough: THIS IS NOT A ZERO SUM GAME. Our successes, whoever has the mostest, are a boon to each other. We're in the business of proving that superhero movies aren't just eye-candy (they're eye-TRUFFLES!). People seem intent on setting us against each other, and though I'm proud to be Woody Strode to Nolan's Kirk Douglas, I think they're missing the point. Whatever TDKR does on its first weekend, the only stat that matters to me is the ticket I'M definitely buying. Nolan and Raimi INVENTED the true superhero flick, yo. (Special mention to Jon Favreau and James Gunn.) Happy to be in the mix."

Maybe we could all learn a lesson.

3D

I really dont think it will. That means it would have to do even better than TDK, and I just dont see that happening, especially considering the general audience has no idea who Bane is. Everyone at my job has never heard of him and they are not that excited.

I really hope TDKR does well, and it will. I just dont see it becoming the 3rd grossing film of all time.

TDKR will make a crap ton of money but I highly doubt it will gross more than The Avengers. The Dark Knight only made a billion because it was re-released before Oscar season.

its has imax and imax tickets are much more than 3d and im sure many people are going to try to watch this in imax especially because its setting the record for most imax scenes in a movie. this film is set up to make a lot of money but the imax viewing is going to help it make a lot more like it did last time.

TDKR will attract a solid 75 to 80 % of the families that The Avengers got. However, there is a lage audience that does not like far fetched movies(ect.) that will see TDKR. You must also take into account repeat costumers that saw TDK and will see TDKR.

I cannot think TDKR will hit the numbers you are forecasting. I am going to guess similar numbers to MiB3, due to TASM opening two weeks earlier. I am curious to see how this one will compare to TDK in the box office numbers.

nilli29- lol, good point.

TheMyth - I'm glad your children get movie progression. It doesn't really bother me that they went to see it it just seems wierd.

But are you going to take your 6 year old to see Batman take on Bane?

What people are missing is the expectation factor.
Because the Avengers was going to be a team compilation of a bunch of semi-above-average superhero flicks, the expectations weren't that high. At the time of opening, even I was a bit skeptical; I couldn't see putting so many heros together for the first time, in a solid story, with character development, action,..etc, without it turning into a huge mess. But it worked. Low expectations, greatly exceeded, produce greater feelings of satisfaction. Greater feelings of satisfaction produce higher critical acclaim, more word of mouth, sense of relief (Marvel Fans), repeat viewing, willing to pay higher ticket prices, etc.

The Dark Knight Rises on the other hand is facing much higher expectations. It's a sequel to what was the highest grossing and critically acclaimed superhero movies of all time; it also has to compete against the recent success of the Avengers.
Higher expectations, exceeded, produce feelings of "thank God they didn't blow it". Decent critical acclaim but expected, decent word of mouth but expected, decent repeat viewing but expected..etc. You expected a good movie and you got a good movie. This is a recipe for a great box office hit but not a record breaker.
Avatar, Titanic, Avengers and the original Dark Knight, were charting unfamiliar territory which far exceeded expectations. TDKR is in the difficult position of having to live up to expectations.