This Sunday: Avatar: Fire and Ash has finally touched down in theaters, and based on current projections, the movie is eyeing a good, albeit not great, opening weekend in North America.
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๐ถ๐บ๐๐ผ๐ ๐ ๐๐บ๐๐บ๐: ๐ฅ๐๐๐พ ๐บ๐๐ฝ ๐ ๐๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐๐พ ๐ฎ๐๐
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As we first reported yesterday, the movie grossed $12 million from Thursday preview screenings. With an additional $25 million on Friday, a debut somewhere between $84 million and $88 million seems likely (at a push, it may exceed expectations with $90 million).ย
The Avatar movies have always relied more on having legs than on massive opening weekends. In 2009, Avatar opened with $77 million, and like The Way of Water, it ultimately grossed over $2 billion worldwide. Fire and Ash's start is a noteworthy drop from the $134 million we saw its predecessor earn three years ago, however.ย
There hasn't been a great deal of excitement surrounding the Avatar threequel, perhaps explaining why Disney is hoping theater-exclusive Avengers: Doomsday teasers will draw MCU fans to multiplexes over the next four weekends. Still, these movies have always done big numbers overseas and in subsequent weekends, with Avatar: Fire and Ash's CinemaScore (via SFFGazette.com) a positive indication for the latter.
As a refresher, CinemaScore is a market research firm that surveys audience reactions to newly released movies.
After attending opening night screenings, moviegoers rate films on an A+ to F scale, providing insights into audience satisfaction. Widely used in the film industry, CinemaScore helps gauge the initial reception of movies and influences box office predictions based on audience feedback.
off to a respectable start at the box office after taking in $12 million from Thursday preview screenings domestically and $55.1 million globally.
This is $5M below Avatar: The Way of Water ๐พ๐๐๐๐๐, which made $17M on its way to a $53.2M Friday and $134.1M 3-day back in 2022, but business is expected to pick up significantly over the weekend.
Current estimates are looking at a $90 million - $105 million opening weekend in North America, along with $250 million - $275 million from overseas markets for a $340 million - $365 million worldwide debut. Whether Fire and Ash can ultimately pass the $2 billion milestone like the previous Avatar ๐พ๐๐๐๐๐ movies remains to be seen, but it might be a tall order.
Fire and Ash will almost certainly prove to be a huge hit for Disney, but there are a couple of factors that could work against it. For one, the movie clocks-in at 3 hours, 15 minutes, making it the longest instalment in the franchise so far (2009's Avatar ran for 2 hours, 42 minutes, while The Way of Water was 3 hours, 12 minutes). Reviews have also been a little more mixed.
Fire and Ash had been hovering around the 71% mark on Rotten Tomatoes since the embargo lifted earlier this week, but has now dropped to 69% based on 213 reviews. Not a huge difference, of course, but this is something many prospective ticket buyers do tend to take into consideration - especially if they're already on the fence.
As of now, Avatar 4 and Avatar 5 remain tentatively scheduled for December 21, 2029 and December 19, 2031. While filmmaker James Cameron has filmed some scenes for the fourth movie, it's looking increasingly unlikely that either of them will meet those release dates.
Despite having those fourth and fifth instalments planned out, Cameron has said that Avatar: Fire and Ash ๐พ๐๐๐๐๐ satisfyingly concludes his trilogy. Now, we're taking a deep dive into the threequel's ending.
During the movie's final act, Jake Sully (Sam Worthington) is named Toruk Makto, the legendary, mythical hero, who can unite the clans during times of great sorrow and seemingly insurmountable odds to lead them to victory.
As the movie ends, Kiri guides Spider through the spirit world for the first time, where he encounters Neteyam (Jamie Flatters) and Grace Augustine (Sigourney Weaver). With that, the Avatar: Fire and Ash title card is shown as Miley Cyrus' "Dream As One" plays.ย
It's previously been reported that the next movies could bring the Na'vi to Earth, but there's nothing about this ending that necessarily sets the stage for us to leave Pandora. There are a few loose ends, but Cameron wasn't lying when he said his trilogy is now concluded.
With Avatar: Fire and Ash, Cameron takes audiences back to Pandora in an immersive new adventure with Marine turned Naโvi leader Jake Sully (Sam Worthington), Naโvi warrior Neytiri (Zoe Saldaรฑa), and the Sully family.
The movie also stars Sigourney Weaver, Stephen Lang, Oona Chaplin, Cliff Curtis, Joel David Moore, CCH Pounder, Edie Falco, David Thewlis, Jemaine Clement, Giovanni Ribisi, Britain Dalton, Jamie Flatters, Trinity Jo-Li Bliss, Jack Champion, Brendan Cowell, Bailey Bass, Filip Geljo, Duane Evans, Jr., and Kate Winslet.
Avatar grossed $2.9 billion in 2009 (that figure includes a few re-releases), and in 2022, Avatar: The Way of Water made a similarly massive $2.3 billion. Now, all eyes are on Avatar: Fire and Ash to see whether it can reach the same level of financial success.
According to Variety (via SFFGazette.com), current projections indicate a $90 million - $105 million opening weekend in North America, with an additional $250 million - $275 million from overseas. That means the James Cameron-helmed threequel is on track for a $340 million - $365 million start worldwide, and a big percentage of ticket sales are expected to come from IMAX and 3D screens.
The Avatar movies aren't exactly known for record-breaking opening weekends; the first movie made only $77 million in 2009 and went on to earn $760 million stateside. Even The Way of Water only debuted with $134 million before eventually wrapping up its domestic run with $688 million.
With Fire and Ash likely to open around the $100 million mark, interest in the franchise appears to have decreased since The Way of Water was released three years ago. However, when that arrived in theaters, fans had been waiting 13 years for another Avatar movie, so this isn't necessarily cause for concern.ย