Last week, DC Studios moved up Supergirl's social media embargo, and the first wave of posts from X appeared glowing. Of course, upon closer inspection, it was clear that most of them had come from influencers and that the few critics who shared their takes were a little more reserved.
As expected, the reviews did not match the reactions, and while Supergirl briefly had a "Fresh" score on Rotten Tomatoes, it wasn't long until it slipped into "Rotten" territory. There are only a few percentage points in it, but that dreaded green splat can make all the difference to a movie's opening weekend (as ridiculous as that seems, it's been the case for years).
Early word on Supergirl is that it earned $6.5 million from Thursday previews, a significant drop from Superman's $22.5 million last July. This is in the same ballpark as Marvel Studios flop, The Marvels ($6.6 million), just shy of half as much as Captain America: Brave New World's $12 million, but above Morbius ($5.7 million).
Adding Wednesday's fan screenings, Supergirl is boosted to $8.25 million. However, following projections of a $47 million to $50 million opening weekend, the Woman of Tomorrow may land with a thud and only gross $39 million.
Warner Bros. reportedly wants Supergirl to earn $300 million, with that reportedly considered enough to have made the second chapter in James Gunn's Superman Saga a worthwhile endeavour.
It's not impossible, but based on these early numbers and how previous superhero movies have performed with similar starts, Supergirl will be lucky to even hit $200 million. Not helping matters is Toy Story 5's dominance and the fact that Minions & Monsters, The Odyssey, and Spider-Man: Brand New Day are all on the way.
Still, it's not all doom and gloom. While Deadline is reporting that those combined Wednesday/Thursday previews came in at $7.8 million combined (not $8.25 million), when you add $5.2 million from international markets, Supergirl has landed a $13 million worldwide opening day.
That's ahead of Disclosure Day's $12 million start, and the hope is that the Maid of Might's movie could still hit $80 million this weekend. Still, the good news is lessened somewhat by the revelation that Supergirl's production budget may have been $186 million, not $170 million.
During a recent interview with Rolling Stone, Supergirl writer Ana Nogueira opened up on writing not one, but two versions of Supergirl before James Gunn enlisted her to develop this movie.
"I honestly wrote — this is breaking news — I wrote two different Supergirl movies before this one. Those two had similarities and overlaps, but were pretty different," she recalled. "They served two different purposes, and then that kind of all went away. I had an overall deal with [Warner Bros.], and my overall deal ended the week I gave birth."
"And I was like, 'I guess that’s it for me and DC.' And I was bummed, of course, as any writer would be. I came back from maternity leave, and [producer] Chantal [Nong Vo] called me, and she was like, 'OK, so this time we actually are making a Supergirl movie.' She said, 'I want you to pitch on it.' And this is also breaking news: I said, 'No.'"
"I had gone down that road twice before, and it hadn’t worked out, and I was also like, 'I’m not gonna get the job. I’m so dusty. I’m old news. I wrote two previous drafts,'" Nogueira added. "And she was like, 'I’m not taking no for an answer. I need you to pitch, Ana.' And then I had to do my work and pitch it just like anybody else, but they ended up saying yes."
Supergirl is now playing in theaters.