JOKER: FOLIE À DEUX Early Box Office Tracking Points To A Laughter-Free Opening Weekend For The Sequel

While we're still waiting on specific box office tracking numbers, a few pundits have weighed in to suggest that Warner Bros. will have nothing to laugh about when Joker: Folie À Deux opens next month...

By JoshWilding - Sep 12, 2024 08:09 AM EST

Filed Under: Joker

UPDATE: Joker: Folie À Deux has now hit official tracking boards and, while not quite as catastrophic as those early estimates, Deadline reveals that the sequel is only eyeing a $70 million opening weekend.

That's $26 million less than Joker's opening of $96.2 million and a far cry from the $100+ million estimates before those reviews out of Venice hit.

Despite sitting at 62% on Rotten Tomatoes (a mere 7% less than 2019's Joker), excitement for Joker: Folie À Deux is oddly muted. Much of it comes down to DC fans feeling there's simply no need for this sequel when that first movie made for such a great standalone tale.

Then, there's the fact this follow-up is a musical; that's a surefire way to lessen interest from fanboys and regular moviegoers alike. Throw in some of the divisive spoilers that made it out of Venice - not to mention the fact that 2023's mostly awful DCEU offerings are fresh in everyone's minds - and it no longer looks like Joker: Folie À Deux will be breaking box office records.

The trades haven't shared any updated tracking data since tickets went on sale earlier this week, but the @EmpireCityBO X account claims, "Numbers don't lie, and even this early red flags everywhere and [Joker: Folie À Deux] is in big big trouble if first half day of pre-sales are any indication."

"$100m opening in serious jeopardy and might go a lot lower," it adds. "Hopefully won't head for The Marvels/The Flash territory."

In a post shared yesterday, it's said things have gotten even worse for the movie. "Unfortunately, things have not improved. If anything, they've gotten worse. It seems [The Flash] 2.0 might be incoming here for [Warner Bros.] and [Joker: Folie À Deux]."

For what it's worth, it was previously reported that the Joker follow-up was aiming for a $100 million debut, so the idea of it now opening with perhaps only half or a third of that is hard to fathom. Stranger things have happened, though, and that very early tracking is often unreliable.

One thing is certain, though: this movie won't be taking back any of the records set by Deadpool & Wolverine this July!

How much do you think Joker: Folie À Deux is going to make during its opening weekend in the U.S.?

Something to smile about. Get tickets NOW for Joker: Folie à Deux - only in theaters and @IMAX, October 4. #JokerMovie #FilmedForIMAX pic.twitter.com/RNDCQOjY5U
— Joker Movie (@jokermovie) September 9, 2024

Joker: Folie À Deux finds Arthur Fleck institutionalized at Arkham awaiting trial for his crimes as Joker. While struggling with his dual identity, Arthur not only stumbles upon true love, but also finds the music that's always been inside him.

The sequel stars Joaquin Phoenix once again in his Oscar-winning dual role as Arthur Fleck/Joker, opposite Oscar-winner Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born). The movie also features Oscar nominees Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Catherine Keener (Get Out), alongside Zazie Beetz, reprising her role from Joker.

Phillips, who was nominated for Oscars for directing, writing and producing Joker, directed Joker: Folie À Deux from a screenplay by fellow Oscar nominee Scott Silver & Phillips, based on characters from DC. This follow-up was produced by Phillips, Oscar nominee Emma Tillinger Koskoff and Joseph Garner. Lady Gaga served as music consultant.

Joker: Folie À Deux arrives in theaters on October 4.

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52 Comments

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CaptainTriip - 9/12/2024, 8:40 AM

This whole mess of declaring something a failure before it’s even open to the public has to stop.

supermanrex - 9/12/2024, 9:37 AM

@CaptainTriip - that's how click driven business works now. these comments dont help either in these sections on the internet. just calling a streaming show, based on the fact that we watch when we are comfortable model a failure on premiere night because not a lot of people wanted to watch on Tuesday night and not accounting for binging later or weekend watching.

SATW42 - 9/12/2024, 9:49 AM

@CaptainTriip - it is open to the public though. Sure people might decide to check it out day of and buy tickets, but no one just walks up anymore and buys tickets like we did in the 90s.

You absolutely can look at advanced sales and see it's not looking great.

SATW42 - 9/12/2024, 9:52 AM

@supermanrex - but this is different though. Yes we're a bit out, but advanced ticket sales ABSOLUTELY tell you something about how the movie will do.

Again, no one just walks up to a theatre and buys tickets right before showtime anymore.

NOW, if the public largely likes it, can it build interest and turn around course and have legs after a less than stellar opening weekend? Sure. But there's no way WB is happy with these numbers right now, and that is the story.

bobevanz - 9/12/2024, 10:41 AM

@SATW42 - you have advanced sales for opening weekend, then you have word of mouth to keep it going. The same can be said for Megalopolis, unfortunately too many people rely on the words of others to decide if they'll like something. Don't tell me it's a price issue, anyone could save a dollar a week if they really wanted to see a movie haha

SonOfAGif - 9/12/2024, 10:57 AM

@CaptainTriip - It's a business strategy the media uses. When something is divisive whether it be a movie trailer, song, interview, or something different, The Media will use every opportunity to fuel the division. Because it brings them clicks and ad revenue at the financial failure they assist with in spreading possible false information or trying to persuade more people to continue hating something.

DrReedRichards - 9/12/2024, 8:43 AM

The musical aspect will sadly hurt its numbers more than it being lackluster (if it even is) ever could.

TheVisionary25 - 9/12/2024, 9:13 AM

@DrReedRichards - yeah

Sadly studios nowadays tend to hide if their movie even is a musical as much as they can nowadays due to that very reason

Hell , even the actors and directors have likely been told to not say it’s a musical and have tried to avoid using that.

DrReedRichards - 9/12/2024, 9:21 AM

@TheVisionary25 -

Yeah, I think the shared video from the last article with the reviewer's plot leak even stated outright that the cast were discouraged from referring to the movie as a musical, and told instead to just say that it has "music elements"...

...whatever that means.

TheVisionary25 - 9/12/2024, 9:26 AM

@DrReedRichards - yeah

The funniest thing was Gaga trying to dance around it and ended up basically giving the definition of a musical

Just own it , ya’ll made it.

SATW42 - 9/12/2024, 9:54 AM

@DrReedRichards - I'll personally never understand why people are so adverse to musicals, but it is oddly still a thing.

Like, you like music, you like movies, but audiences at large are like "keep that shit out of my movie"

DrReedRichards - 9/12/2024, 10:09 AM

@SATW42 -

Eh, I kinda get it, to be honest. Musicals still have a certain element of overxpressiveness, even during moments that are supposed to be dramatic or cathartic, and modern audiences seem to vastly prefer stoic "I'm a badass of few words" characters.

For example, think of the latest Deadpool. How many preferred Wade's signature rambling antics, and how many thought his simple "I'm gonna fight you now" in the car was better instead?

RockerTodd - 9/12/2024, 10:43 AM

@DrReedRichards - IMHO as a guitar player, people talking and then suddenly bursting into song with backing music always subverts my suspension of disbelief in a film. There are exceptions, of course, but they have to be really well written (set-up dialog, lyrics and music). Most musicals also have "Broadway-style" songs that feel hackneyed and formulaic. I know pop music today can be pretty simplistic too, but there's just something cringe-worthy about most musicals.
I don't expect it will make $50 million in the first weekend.

DrReedRichards - 9/12/2024, 10:55 AM

@RockerTodd -

I get what you're saying for the "Broadway" elememnt, totally with you on that one. Couples suddenly tap-dancing, swinging from a pole, open arms in the rain, those are nigh unavoidable elements in almost every single musical film, and they end up making the whole thing feel (for better or for worse) a lot more staged than organic.

That's up to each viewer's preference, of course.

Conquistador - 9/12/2024, 8:46 AM

@TCronson, i've found the perftect profile photo and username for you when you lose our bet!

mountainman - 9/12/2024, 8:55 AM

Not surprising. There was no way this was earning anywhere close to the first one.

Conquistador - 9/12/2024, 9:02 AM

@mountainman - I was thinking between 5 and 600mill WW, which is still a decent sum, but some still think it's going to do more...

mountainman - 9/12/2024, 9:14 AM

@Conquistador - Oh yeah I didn’t, and still don’t think it’ll bomb like The Marvels and The Flash. But it won’t earn anywhere close to the first one.

ItsNotForMeWahh - 9/12/2024, 8:58 AM

TheFinestSmack - 9/12/2024, 9:03 AM

I still haven't even seen the first one.

Goldboink - 9/12/2024, 9:26 AM

@TheFinestSmack -
Neither have I, and likely won't unless it's the next thing up while I'm asleep. Not my cup of tea but more power to the folks who like to celebrate stuff like this.

thedrudo - 9/12/2024, 9:45 AM

@TheFinestSmack - If you’ve seen The King of Comedy or Taxi Driver, you’ve basically seen Joker.

bobevanz - 9/12/2024, 10:42 AM

@thedrudo - and yet most people haven't lmao

Reginator - 9/12/2024, 9:16 AM

if it wasn't a musical I would see it opening weekend.

Forthas - 9/12/2024, 9:20 AM

Like I have said before and will say AGAIN!!! The movie viewing audience wants realistic compelling drama like the Dark Knight Trilogy, Man of Steel, The Batman and first Joker. Every single time these moron studio execs or directors want to inject extreme nihilism (Zack Snyder), comedy (James Gunn), or now musical numbers (Todd Philips) then you are begging for failure. As usual Warner Brothers is at the front of the beggars line!

SATW42 - 9/12/2024, 9:57 AM

@Forthas - "comedy (James Gunn)"

huh? outside of Suicide Squad, Guardians of the Galaxy was huge as a franchise and Peacemaker was a big success for Max...

Forthas - 9/12/2024, 10:19 AM

@SATW42 - Guardians of the Galaxy was successful because it was associated With Marvel and by Marvel standards it was mediocre. For a franchise that at the time averaged a billion dollars per film, GoG has never achieved that. Add to that how the more comedy marvel kept piling on (read Thor love and Thunder) the less Marvels audience were interested in future outings of the franchise.

EskimoJ - 9/12/2024, 11:50 AM

@Forthas - You're trying to be sly with numbers, but Guardians of the Galaxy was the third-biggest MCU movie upon its release, behind only The Avengers and Iron Man 3.

Only Age of Ultron and Civil War outdid the second one when it came out.

You could kind of hinge your argument on the third one, but we all know the multitude of factors at play there.

Forthas - 9/12/2024, 11:58 AM

@EskimoJ - Avengers did over $1 billion and Iron Man 3 did over a billion...so what film is the odd man out?

Every franchise but two in the Marvel line up that has had at least one sequel has put up bigger numbers that GOG. That includes Spiderman, Captain America, Captain Marvel, Dr. Strange, Black Panther, Iron Man, Avengers and now Deadpool!

DrReedRichards - 9/12/2024, 9:23 AM

Also, Knull I guess:

Conquistador - 9/12/2024, 9:29 AM

@DrReedRichards - Urgh...

SATW42 - 9/12/2024, 10:00 AM

@DrReedRichards - I had little interest in carnage, still haven't seen it. This looks fun and will make me watch carnage so I can see this.

DrReedRichards - 9/12/2024, 10:09 AM

@SATW42 -

Lol, I still haven't watched Carnage either, but this gives me no reason to change that. I'm good, thanks.

bobevanz - 9/12/2024, 10:43 AM

@SATW42 - this looks terrible, not even fun. Like a funeral imo

IronDean2099 - 9/12/2024, 9:24 AM

WB took the completely wrong message from the first one. The reason it did well is because it was a weird independent type take on a big IP character. Making a bigger sequel takes away from the only thing the first movie had going for it. They should have done more small standalone movies about other characters instead.

Shivermetimbers - 9/12/2024, 11:27 AM

@IronDean2099 - The Joker should have been a standalone. No sequel needed. But then to add in the fact that it is suddenly a musical? WTF were they thinking?

TheVisionary25 - 9/12/2024, 9:25 AM

Regardless of how one feels about this movie eventually or this duology overall by the end , this is still unfortunate if true..

We’ll see how it does since it still fairly early days but I do think the curiosity factor that the first one , atleast in part due to the discourse around that film at the time is no longer there for this one hence it likely won’t hit the billion that one did (though that doesn’t mean it can’t still be successful).

Plus , the musical element hurts too since it’s not a genre that appeals to everyone especially men.

It being an “unnecessary” sequel & the 2023 DC offerings have little to nothing to do with it I feel (especially the latter since this has nothing to do with them).

Plus , there are barely any spoilers out there right now so that isn’t it either imo.

itzayaboy - 9/12/2024, 9:25 AM

Hope it fails spectacularly. First one sucked.

TheUnworthyThor - 9/12/2024, 9:29 AM

Well I hated the first one so I haven’t exactly ran to get my tickets for the second one.

TheVisionary25 - 9/12/2024, 9:40 AM

@TheUnworthyThor - same

I didn’t care much for it so if I do see this in theaters , I likely wont get it till closer to its release in the States

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JOKER: FOLIE À DEUX Early Box Office Tracking Points To A Laughter-Free Opening Weekend For The Sequel

While we're still waiting on specific box office tracking numbers, a few pundits have weighed in to suggest that Warner Bros. will have nothing to laugh about when Joker: Folie À Deux opens next month...

JOKER: FOLIE À DEUX's Harry Lawtey On Playing A New Take On Harvey Dent

JOKER: FOLIE À DEUX - Detailed Spoilers For Todd Phillips' Sequel Have Been Shared Online