UPDATE: Joker: Folie À Deux has now hit official tracking boards and, while not quite as catastrophic as those early estimates, Deadline reveals that the sequel is only eyeing a $70 million opening weekend.
That's $26 million less than Joker's opening of $96.2 million and a far cry from the $100+ million estimates before those reviews out of Venice hit.
Despite sitting at 62% on Rotten Tomatoes (a mere 7% less than 2019's Joker), excitement for Joker: Folie À Deux is oddly muted. Much of it comes down to DC fans feeling there's simply no need for this sequel when that first movie made for such a great standalone tale.
Then, there's the fact this follow-up is a musical; that's a surefire way to lessen interest from fanboys and regular moviegoers alike. Throw in some of the divisive spoilers that made it out of Venice - not to mention the fact that 2023's mostly awful DCEU offerings are fresh in everyone's minds - and it no longer looks like Joker: Folie À Deux will be breaking box office records.
The trades haven't shared any updated tracking data since tickets went on sale earlier this week, but the @EmpireCityBO X account claims, "Numbers don't lie, and even this early red flags everywhere and [Joker: Folie À Deux] is in big big trouble if first half day of pre-sales are any indication."
"$100m opening in serious jeopardy and might go a lot lower," it adds. "Hopefully won't head for The Marvels/The Flash territory."
In a post shared yesterday, it's said things have gotten even worse for the movie. "Unfortunately, things have not improved. If anything, they've gotten worse. It seems [The Flash] 2.0 might be incoming here for [Warner Bros.] and [Joker: Folie À Deux]."
For what it's worth, it was previously reported that the Joker follow-up was aiming for a $100 million debut, so the idea of it now opening with perhaps only half or a third of that is hard to fathom. Stranger things have happened, though, and that very early tracking is often unreliable.
One thing is certain, though: this movie won't be taking back any of the records set by Deadpool & Wolverine this July!
How much do you think Joker: Folie À Deux is going to make during its opening weekend in the U.S.?
Joker: Folie À Deux finds Arthur Fleck institutionalized at Arkham awaiting trial for his crimes as Joker. While struggling with his dual identity, Arthur not only stumbles upon true love, but also finds the music that's always been inside him.
The sequel stars Joaquin Phoenix once again in his Oscar-winning dual role as Arthur Fleck/Joker, opposite Oscar-winner Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born). The movie also features Oscar nominees Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Catherine Keener (Get Out), alongside Zazie Beetz, reprising her role from Joker.
Phillips, who was nominated for Oscars for directing, writing and producing Joker, directed Joker: Folie À Deux from a screenplay by fellow Oscar nominee Scott Silver & Phillips, based on characters from DC. This follow-up was produced by Phillips, Oscar nominee Emma Tillinger Koskoff and Joseph Garner. Lady Gaga served as music consultant.
Joker: Folie À Deux arrives in theaters on October 4.