Once one of the mightiest names in the theatrical distribution industry, Marvel Studios productions have unfortunately struggled to reach the heights they so easily did only a few years ago. Big blockbuster hopefuls like Captain America Brave New World, Thunderbolts* and The Fantastic Four: First Steps have drastically underperformed. However, one particular film broke thought the box office barrier the MCU had gotten so far away from: Deadpool & Wolverine.
The film was a perfect storm of the right elements to succeed. It starred two bankable stars in Hugh Jackman and Ryan Reynolds, finally put the former in Wolverine's classic comic suit, and was smartly marketed as a colorful superhero adventure. Despite carrying an R-rating, the movie was a box office success, earning $1.338 billion worldwide, at a time when the financial health of the superhero movie genre was constantly put into question.
Deadpool & Wolverine seemed to be an undeniable win for Marvel Studios and Disney. Unfortunately, the project was reportedly not as profitable as was once thought.
Deadpool & Wolverine's Massive Budget
Forbes released a report on the film's financials, aided by information provided by outlets The Standard and That Park Place, revealing Deadpool & Wolverine's shockingly high budget. Initially, it was thought the threequel had cost within Marvel's typical production range of $200-$250 million. That was apparently not the case.
Per Forbes, the United Kingdom refunds up to 25.5% of a movie's budget as long as at least 10% of its production is spent in the UK. As explained by The Standard, to receive this benefit, studios are required to submit detailed financial information about the project to the government. The budget filings submitted revealed that, by October 31, 2024, Deadpool & Wolverine had accumulated a massive production cost of £418.1 million, approximately $533.7 million USD (not counting marketing expenses).
That number makes it one of the top ten most expensive films in the history of Hollywood. In the filings, it's noted that the project's, "final costs exceeded the production budget." Having fulfilled the production requirement—with shooting taking place mostly at Pinewood Studios—and having submitted its filings, Marvel Studios received £82 million in tax rebates from the country, which roughly translates to $104.7 million USD. Subtracting that amount from the original $533.7 million production budget, the film had a net cost of £336.1 million roughly equivalent to $429 million USD.
Out of that amount, Forbes states $11.2 million were allocated to the film's staff of around 105 employees per month. Then, there are the marketing costs. Per Forbes, Disney is known for not disclosing marketing expenses. However, That Park Place provided three different ranges of marketing spend Deadpool & Wolverine could have fallen into based on previous Marvel Studios productions.
The marketing ranges fall into three categories: Conservative ($100 million), Standard ($150 million), and Aggressive ($200 million or more). Per the site, Deadpool & Wolverine likely fell into the third, given its prominent marketing campaign around the globe. Thus, assuming a $200 million marketing spend, adding the amount to the net production budget specified above amounts to an estimated $629 million in total costs for the third Deadpool film.
Calculating Profitability
Note: The figures presented in this article are all estimates based on the information provided by Forbes, That Park Place and The Standard, and don't necessarily reflect the final profit yielded by Deadpool & Wolverine.
As mentioned, Deadpool & Wolverine had a global cume of $1.338 billion. Based on its previously reported budget, Deadpool & Wolverine would have delivered a hefty profit for Disney. However, the threequel's potential profitability becomes drastically smaller when taking into account the new figures reported, and shrinks even further when accounting for higher marketing-campaign costs. In a charge known as a "rental fee," theaters keep a certain percentage of tickets sold for any given film.
Furthermore, different countries retain different percentages from theatrical revenues. To simplify those two factors, Forbes explained (as it's commonly understood in the industry), that studios typically receive 51% of theater revenue generated by their products. Rounding down Disney's global take from ticket sales to 50%, from its estimated $1.338 billion haul, Deadpool & Wolverine brought in approximately $669 million for Marvel Studios and its parent company.
To reach an approximation of potential profit brought in by the film, the reported total expense of the movie now needs to be subtracted from that amount. As mentioned, TPP provided three marketing-spend ranges that can be used to calculate three approximate scenarios for the profitability of the film. This is done by adding the different ranges to the movie's estimated net cost of $429 million, and then subtracting that total amount from the calculated theatrical revenue.
For a "conservative" spend of $100, the movie could have cost approximately $529 million, which would have led to an estimated profit of $140 million. For a "standard" $150 million, Deadpool & Wolverine would have cost an estimated $579 million, leading to an approximate profit of $90 million. For an "aggressive" $200 million marketing spend, the movie would have cost roughly $629 million, taking its estimated profit down to approximately $40 million.
Thus, according to these estimates, the movie was likely profitable in its theatrical run, just significantly less than it had initially thought to have been. With that said, it is also important to take into account that, outside of ticket sales, Deadpool & Wolverine also had ancillary revenue from things like merchandise, brand deals and home media sales. Those earnings are difficult to calculate and are often not disclosed by studios, which makes estimating an accurate total for profit practically impossible.
In defense of the film, production did have to stop due to the 2023 SAG-AFTRA and WGA strikes, which could have contributed to the movie's ballooning budget. Nevertheless, the fact that a film with a revenue as high as this one potentially had such a small profit may be a testament to the over-spending that has plagued Hollywood blockbusters for years.
Deadpool & Wolverine is available to stream on Disney+.
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