Masters of the Universe and Supergirl now have competition in the unenviable race to be crowned the summer's biggest box office flop. A new report from Deadline reveals that Disney's live-action Moana stands to lose between $100 million and $125 million.
That comes after the movie debuted to a disappointing $95 million worldwide ($43 million of which came from North America). Interestingly, that projected loss is based on Moana grossing at least $250 million by the end of its run, which could be easier said than done with Toy Story 5 and Minions & Monsters still in theaters. The Odyssey and Spider-Man: Brand New Day are also on the way.
How has a live-action adaptation of Moana bombed so hard, less than two years after Disney Animation's Moana 2 grossed over $1 billion?
The trade explains that there was no real desire for this version of the story. "Families just watched Moana 2, and with ticket prices being so high (it takes a lot to take a family of four out), why rush to cinemas when Moana will hit Disney+ down the road?" the report posits, adding that the movie's release date was also a major issue.
Moana has dropped at a time when Disney is essentially competing with itself, as Toy Story 5 has even beaten it in some markets during its fourth weekend in theaters. As one veteran film finance source puts it, "Disney knew when they re-dated Moana that they had Moana 2 and Toy Story 5 in the mix; why they even considered a release date in 2026 blows my mind."
The trailers essentially promoted a shot-for-shot remake of 2016's Moana, offering moviegoers nothing new. Throw in how Dwayne Johnson's odd-looking wig overshadowed the first look at Maui, and the negative buzz started early. There's also the fact that this version of Moana had no new songs—aside from one over the credits—and no compelling reason to get people to watch a movie they can see the animated version of at home.
Making a profit will be particularly challenging because of Moana's $250 million production budget and an estimated $145 million marketing spend. Johnson was paid $20 million upfront for his performance, which is his expected salary, but costs ballooned with 60 weeks of post-production (needed for Moana's many VFX shots).
This was another swing and a miss for Disney, coming right after The Mandalorian and Grogu flopped and just a year after Lilo & Stitch exceeded expectations by grossing $1 billion. Getting these live-action Disney Animation adaptations right clearly isn't easy, and all eyes now turn to Tangled to see how that fares in comparison.
Moana is now playing in theaters.