Superhero Movies - Box Office Predictions 2013
I enjoy reading these sort of articles. So I decided to write one of my own. Here are my thoughts on how much dough the superheroes films of 2013 are gonna make.
This year, we have not one, not two, not three, not four... but FIVE superhero films coming out. It's a great time to be a comic book geek, that's for sure. CBMs have come a long way from being considered mostly just laughable cash-grabs. Last year's highest-grossing, record breaking, entertaining Avengers was obviously the stand-out. The Dark Knight Rises, finale to Nolan's bat-trilogy, wasn't too far behind either. Even The Mediocre Spider-Man grossed over $700 Million. Not all fared well though, as Dredd, a fantastic film, bombed at the box office (though, it did well in home media sales). And Ghost Rider was a critical and commercial failure. With all this in mind, you've gotta wonder how this year's films are gonna do. Which ones'll be the box office stand outs, and which ones will fail. Well, without any further delay, I bring you my predictions for the box office grosses of the Superhero films of 2013.
Iron Man 3 - May 3, 2013 (Released earlier outside of America)
Well, let's be completely honest here. This film will get the biggest push from the post-Avengers MCU momentum. It's MCU's first post-Avengers film, and also happens to feature their flagship character. Iron Man (2008) made $585.2 Million, and Iron Man 2 (2010) made $623.9 Million. These are, of course, the worldwide box office numbers. I am confident that with the aforementioned Avengers exposure, Mandarin, flagship character yabbity-yabbity it's gonna between $800-900 Million. That sounds about right. The final Twilight made about that much, and judging from the hype surrounding Iron Man 3, I'd say it's in the same ballpark.
Initially, actually about almost an year ago, when Avengers fever was at high pitch and the movie was breaking all the records in the world, I thought Iron Man 3 might break the billion dollar mark. But as I think a little more about it, I'm thinking... probably not. Every movie that has crossed the billion dollar mark has done it because obsessed fans REWATCHED the film over, and over, and over again. If I had to bet, I'd say that movie would be really great, but simply due to Iron Man fatigue, not as many people will go back to rewatch it.
Now, mind you, this is by no means a slight against Iron Man. But seriously, when Iron Man 3 comes out, Robert 'Badass' Downey Jr would've appeared in five films as Iron Man in six years. Less than an year ago, he had his face plastered all over the world in the Avengers posters front-and-center. Clever marketing to put the most popular guy, the most facetime in promotional material. But if ever so slightly, I think it'll prevent Iron Man 3 from breaking into that elusive billion dollar club.
Prediction - $800-900 Million
Man Of Steel - June 14, 2013
Man of Steel has got everything in the world to prove. It's gotta prove itself to be a launch-pad for a new mega-franchise. It's gotta prove itself to be a worthy replacement as a flagship series to make up for the losses of Harry Potter and Nolan's Bat-Trilogy that Warner Bros just suffered from. It's gotta be an emotionally investing superhero film. It's gotta be a badass superhero film. It's gotta be this and that and that over there too. But most importantly, it's gotta make up for the disappointment that was Superman Returns, and be a magnificent Superman film. It has got to do justice to the grandaddy of all superhero. It has got to redeem Superman, and make him relevant once again.
Holy [frick]ing shit. That's a lot they've gotta do.
But if I were a gambling man, I'd bet that the film will be fantastic. I'd bet that it'd be my fanboy dreams come true. I love Snyder's work. I love (most of) Goyer's work. I like Henry Cavill's look. I like a lot about it going in. Not to mention the apparently rave reviews it's been getting which relieved me a bit when they mentioned that it's not as dark as the trailers are letting. However, therein lies the problem. This problem connects back to one of the expectations that this films has to fulfill. It's gotta be better than the Superman Returns borefest. And for people to find out that this isn't gonna be boring, the trailers have gotta let them find out that this is gonna be a lot less moping and a lot more (at least one?) punch-throwing. Yeah, yeah, films need substance and this and that. But expensive films like Man of Steel need to make their money back too.
And they ain't gonna get that money from moviegoers who aren't like you or me hounding around this site every now and then, and up to date with what all the behind the scenes stuff. Most moviegoers remember Superman Returns. Most moviegoers remember being bored walking out of the theater. You've gotta convince them that this is not another borefest. And from what I remember over the past year, audience reactions to the teasers and trailers have been... lukewarm. :'(
Before you pull out all the internet buzz statistics, I've gotta remind you that Scott Pilgrim was getting quite a bit of buzz online. And that film didn't do so hot.
So let's cut to the chase. The film's marketing needs to make it look a more action-packed than it is and they've got plenty of time to do so. But just in case they don't take advantage of the months they have to make it look more exciting, I'll give two predictions.
Same marketing as now: $650 Million. Should be about right. Noticeably more than Superman Returns but not an absurd hit. Just considering the ticket price inflation, 3D surcharges, and hopefully a great word of mouth, it shouldn't have too much trouble scoring in this ballpark.
Marketing made more exciting (this is the one I think'll be it): $800-900 Million. Yeah, I see it making about the same as Iron Man 3. Because, well why wouldn't it? Fix the marketing and it has pretty much everything going for it. Of course, I wouldn't go as far as to say that it'll break the billion dollar mark, since I've rarely seen a non-sequel accomplish that, and when I have, I personally have never expected it. So yeah this sounds about right.
Prediction - $800-900 Million (Good Marketing - my pick)
Prediction - $650 Million (Bad Marketing)
Kick-Ass 2 - 28th June, 2013
Financially speaking, this film seems like a bad idea to me. The first film had a niche audience. And it made niche audience cash. About $48 Million domestic, and about $48 Million foreign. All that on a $30 Million budget. Then add the fact that this is a sequel, which unless a major franchise (and even then not always), tend to make less money than the original. The Kick-Ass 2 comic is even disliked by several fans of the original. So there goes a few members of the little niche audience you had there to begin with. Then the charm of the kind of shit-talking, "badass" character that Hit-Girl is, which is also diminished with Chloe Moretz being and looking like a teenager nowadays. I think she might just come off as annoying now (which I thought she was in the first too. But personal feelings aside, people dug her "badass" kid gimmick, which just ain't gonna work here as well.)
I don't think I really need to say much about this to predict an abysmal $50-60 Million gross. Sorry, I just cannot see it making any more than most soft-bombs.
Prediction - $50-60 Million
The Wolverine - 26th July 2013
After extensive absence from the big screen (outside from a cameo in X-Men - First Class), I think the world might just be ready to greet this Japanese-Noir (or whatever) take on Hugh Jackman's Wolverine. Initially, I was skeptical of this film. But I've gotta say, I've been warming up to it the more I hear and read about it.
Now usually sequels of this nature, which come out several years after the film that they are a sequel of, tend to not do so hot. But I think this is less Terminator Salvation, and more Skyfall. Yeah well, it probably won't make a billion dollars. But to give you a gist of what I'm saying: the general feeling about Salvation when it came out was "Really, they're still doing this?", whereas for Skyfall, it was more "I think I'm ready for another fill". Also, like Skyfall, this film seems to work more as a stand-alone, where new viewers can go in and enjoy it even if they know nothing of the earlier mythology and continuity.
I'm sure some of you are going to say the same old "bored with Fox-Men", "give Marvel the rights back" yadda-yadda. But whenever I speak with someone about "the new Wolverine coming out this year" they seem pleasantly surprised (get on with the [frick]ing marketing already, Fox), but then pretty much go on to say with a pleasant smile on their face "Yeah sure, I'll check it out when it comes out." I dunno, I might be wrong here. Maybe some of you are right in that this franchise desperately needs a reboot, or that nobody outside of my circle of friends likes this film.
Hey, if you disagree, sound off below. I don't mean to express any of these views as facts. This is all just sort of what I think is going to happen. And what I think is going to happen is that this film's gonna feel like a fresh return to a somewhat nostalgic franchise, with a movie that stands-alone as welcoming to old fans, new fans, and non-fans. I predict this one to make a nice big $500-550 Million dollar gross. Big hit, but not exactly as big as Iron Man 3 or Man of Steel.
Prediction - $500-550 Million
Thor, The Dark World - November 8, 2013
My predictions for this is largely the same as for Iron Man 3, so I'll try to keep this brief. Thor got great exposure through Avengers. But he probably isn't going to suffer from as much fatigue. Nor is he going to have a foreign disadvantage like Captain America. The first Thor movie grossed about $450 Million, and I'd say this'll be bigger but not as big as MCU's flagship Iron Man, for obvious reasons.
One little problem might be it's release date. It opens that same day as the 'One Direction Concert Movie 3D'. And that might just spell a grave fate. fo- PFFFFFHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!
Sorry, I couldn't keep a straight face through that one. No, no, Thor will anally violate One Direction. But what might truly spell a bit of trouble is Hunger Games opening two weeks later. Thor should have plenty of time to make bucket loads of money by then, and there's also the fact that Thor's audience should be male-skewed while Hunger Games' is female skewed. So perhaps not as much of an audience overlap as I think. But you never know. Only a fool would deny that Hunger Games is BIG right now. Ah well, I'm gonna be optimistic here and predict that it doesn't hurt Thor too much. After all, I thought Skyfall might be hurt by Twilight last year but quite the opposite happened (much to my delight). I predict Thor to make $700 Million. Big box office numbers, significantly higher than the first Thor, but relatively lower than Iron Man 3 and Man of Steel. Of course, if you do think Hunger Games will hurt Thor significantly, or if you think there are other factors I am not considering, feel free to state them in the comments section.
Prediction - $700 Million
So there we go. These are my box-office predictions for Superhero films of 2013. Agree? Disagree? Comment away.