Avatar grossed $2.9 billion in 2009 (that figure includes a few re-releases), and in 2022, Avatar: The Way of Water made a similarly massive $2.3 billion. Now, all eyes are on Avatar: Fire and Ash to see whether it can reach the same level of financial success.
According to Variety (via SFFGazette.com), current projections indicate a $90 million - $105 million opening weekend in North America, with an additional $250 million - $275 million from overseas. That means the James Cameron-helmed threequel is on track for a $340 million - $365 million start worldwide, and a big percentage of ticket sales are expected to come from IMAX and 3D screens.
The Avatar movies aren't exactly known for record-breaking opening weekends; the first movie made only $77 million in 2009 and went on to earn $760 million stateside. Even The Way of Water only debuted with $134 million before eventually wrapping up its domestic run with $688 million.
With Fire and Ash likely to open around the $100 million mark, interest in the franchise appears to have decreased since The Way of Water was released three years ago. However, when that arrived in theaters, fans had been waiting 13 years for another Avatar movie, so this isn't necessarily cause for concern.
"Should 'Fire and Ash' chart a similar box office path (assuming the butt-numbing runtime of three hours and 17 minutes doesn’t intimidate audiences this time around either)," the trade explains, "'Avatar' could become the first film franchise in history with three installments to earn above $2 billion."
Currently, Avatar is tied with the MCU, as both Avengers: Infinity War and Avengers: Endgame grossed over $2 billion. As a filmmaker, Cameron has three films that have hit the benchmark (Titanic is the other with $2.2 billion globally).
Avatar: Fire and Ash's budget hasn't been revealed, and the movie doesn't necessarily need to gross $2 billion to be considered a hit. However, Cameron's films aren't cheap, so whether it has legs in the weeks ahead will be the big test.
As of now, the movie is the lowest-rated Avatar movie on Rotten Tomatoes with 71%; in contrast, Avatar has 81%, and The Way of Water is just a few percentage points ahead of its follow-up with 76%. It's hard to imagine that score making much of a difference.
Elsewhere, The Housemaid is eyeing a $20 million - $25 million debut in the U.S., with Angel Studios' David proving surprisingly strong competition with an estimated opening in the same range. The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants will be nipping at both their heels with a project $15 million - $20 million launch.
With Avatar: Fire and Ash, Cameron takes audiences back to Pandora in an immersive new adventure with Marine turned Na’vi leader Jake Sully (Sam Worthington), Na’vi warrior Neytiri (Zoe Saldaña), and the Sully family.
The movie also stars Sigourney Weaver, Stephen Lang, Oona Chaplin, Cliff Curtis, Joel David Moore, CCH Pounder, Edie Falco, David Thewlis, Jemaine Clement, Giovanni Ribisi, Britain Dalton, Jamie Flatters, Trinity Jo-Li Bliss, Jack Champion, Brendan Cowell, Bailey Bass, Filip Geljo, Duane Evans, Jr., and Kate Winslet.
Avatar: Fire and Ash opens in theaters on December 19, 2025.