UPDATE: The Wrap has shared an interesting update, revealing, "Warner Bros. Insiders at the studio say that anything above $300 million worldwide will be seen as a win" for Supergirl.
It seems the studio is banking on international audiences showing up for the Maid of Might, as "there is hope that the presence of Matthias Schoenarts, an actor with some overseas appeal, will help boost the film's international potential."
That doesn't appear overly likely, especially as Superman struggled in international markets last year. Still, that was blamed on the Man of Steel being so inherently linked to America, which arguably isn't the case with Supergirl.
Supergirl does not have a friend in Toy Story 5, as the Pixar movie looks to remain a distant #1 at the domestic and international box offices this weekend.
According to Deadline, the DC Studios movie is eyeing a U.S. opening in the "upper $40Ms," though Variety has committed to a $47 million to $50 million haul. Until tomorrow or Friday, the blockbuster's debut is in a state of flux, but this is lower than recent tracking, which pointed to a $55 million opening in the same ballpark as The Flash in 2023.
The saving grace for Supergirl could be its budget. At $170 million before marketing, it's significantly cheaper than Superman. That cost over $225 million to produce, and had a significant $125 million marketing spend on top.
However, Supergirl is eyeing a soft overseas opening, with current forecasts between $27 million and $39 million, according to @GlobalBoxOffice. That puts the Woman of Tomorrow on course for an $80 million to $90 million opening weekend worldwide, meaning it might gross the same as its budget by the end of its second weekend, depending on how much of a hit Minions & Monsters is. $315 million is the rumoured break-even point.
Supergirl is, however, eyeing a bigger opening than Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom ($27.4 million) and Shazam: Fury of the Gods ($30.1 million). It's currently neck and neck with Birds Of Prey (And The Fantabulous Emancipation Of One Harley Quinn) and its $81.2 million debut, while Marvel Studios' biggest flop, The Marvels, opened to $110 million and went on to gross a mere $206.1 million worldwide.
According to Deadline, "First choice is best with women under 25, but low for all audiences, half that of Thunderbolts*, Star Wars: Mandalorian and Grogu and Wonder Woman."
The door certainly isn't closed on Supergirl being a modest hit, and if it has legs this summer, then it could surprise everyone. DC Studios can easily bounce back from this with Clayface and Man of Tomorrow, both of which need to be a hit to establish that Superman wasn't a one-off win for the DC brand.
Back to Toy Story 5, and it's expected to make between $88 million and $96 million this weekend. Jackass: Best and Last, meanwhile, will likely make $10 million during its first few days in theaters.
Supergirl, DC Studios' newest feature film to hit the big screen, arrives in theaters worldwide next summer from Warner Bros. Pictures, and stars Milly Alcock in the dual role of Supergirl/Kara Zor-El. Craig Gillespie directs the film from a screenplay by Ana Nogueira.
When an unexpected and ruthless adversary strikes too close to home, Kara Zor-El, aka Supergirl, reluctantly joins forces with an unlikely companion on an epic, interstellar journey of vengeance and justice. Alcock stars alongside Matthias Schoenaerts, Eve Ridley, David Krumholtz, Emily Beecham, and Jason Momoa.
The film is executive produced by Nigel Gostelow, Chantal Nong Vo and Lars P. Winther. Behind the camera, Gillespie is joined by director of photography Rob Hardy, production designer Neil Lamont, editor Tatiana S. Riegel, costume designer Anna B. Sheppard, Visual Effects Supervisor Geoffrey Baumann, and composer Ramin Djawadi Junkie XL Claudia Sarne.
Supergirl arrives in theaters on June 26, 2026.