CAPTAIN AMERICA: BRAVE NEW WORLD Tracking Towards $81M - $107M Box Office Debut; Update On New Trailer

CAPTAIN AMERICA: BRAVE NEW WORLD Tracking Towards $81M - $107M Box Office Debut; Update On New Trailer

Early box office tracking for Captain America: Brave New World is online, and the next Marvel Studios movie is expected to take in between $81M - $107M domestically when it hits theaters next month...

By MarkCassidy - Jan 10, 2025 03:01 PM EST

We're still just over a month away from the release of the next Marvel Studios movie, Captain America: Brave New World, and early box office tracking for Sam Wilson's (Anthony Mackie) first big-screen outing as the Sentinel of Liberty is now online.

It's still very early days for an accurate estimate, but according to Box Office Theory, the latest MCU adventure looks set for a domestic opening weekend of between $81 million and 107 million (a final domestic total of $195-280 million is predicted).

This wouldn't exactly be a spectacular bow (and quite a bit behind Deadpool and Wolverine's $211 million), but keep in mind that these are only domestic estimates.

Though the most recent trailer did go over a lot better than the initial teaser, anticipation for the film has been somewhat muted. Mixed/negative test-screening reports haven't helped, and it remains to be seen if this fourth Cap movie - and first without Steve Rogers - can keep the momentum going after Deadpool and Wolverine's record-breaking BO run.

As for our next preview of Brave New World, Marvel has yet to announce a new trailer, but there are rumors that it could release online next Friday.

After meeting with newly elected U.S. President Thaddeus Ross, played by Harrison Ford in his Marvel Cinematic Universe debut, Sam finds himself in the middle of an international incident. He must discover the reason behind a nefarious global plot before the true mastermind has the entire world seeing red.

Captain America: Brave New World stars Anthony Mackie, Danny Ramirez, Shira Haas, Xosha Roquemore, Carl Lumbly, with Giancarlo Esposito, Liv Tyler, Tim Blake Nelson, and Harrison Ford. The film is directed by Julius Onah and produced by Kevin Feige and Nate Moore. Louis D’Esposito and Charles Newirth serve as executive producers.

"It made more sense for it to be more of a grounded espionage action movie as opposed to aliens and airplanes coming through portals and sh*t," Mackie said in a recent interview. "Even though I've been in so many of them and have seen it all now, the opportunity for Sam to really establish himself as a true action star and Avenger comes with this movie."

"This movie is a clear reset," he added. "It really re-establishes the idea of what this universe is and what this universe is going to be. I think with these movies, you're getting a clear, new branding of what Marvel is headed towards the same way they did with Captain America: The Winter Soldier."

Marvel Studios’ Captain America: Brave New World opens in U.S. theaters on February 14, 2025.

CAPTAIN AMERICA: BRAVE NEW WORLD Commercial Sees Anthony Mackie Suit Up For New Adventure As Captain America
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CAPTAIN AMERICA: BRAVE NEW WORLD Commercial Sees Anthony Mackie Suit Up For New Adventure As Captain America

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TheRationalNerd
TheRationalNerd - 1/10/2025, 3:29 PM
Decent enough for me. Just ready to see quality marvel films again. Hopefully everyone gives it a shot. Would be beautiful to see Old Man Steve in a cameo or end credits scene.
KennKathleen
KennKathleen - 1/10/2025, 4:35 PM
@TheRationalNerd - User Comment Image
MarvelZombie616
MarvelZombie616 - 1/10/2025, 3:29 PM
Cap 4 will open below $100 domestic, guaranteed.

That being said Box Office theory is way off most of the time.
AllsGood
AllsGood - 1/10/2025, 5:36 PM
@MarvelZombie616 - Captain America Winter Solder Domestic opened with $95,023,721.

Plus, Captain America: Brave New World these are Early Tracking still over month out. More trailers are coming and still waiting for Rotten Tomatoes Critics to post their reviews.

Captain America: The Winter Soldier

Domestic = $259,766,572

International = $454,654,931

Worldwide = $714,421,503
Feralwookiee
Feralwookiee - 1/10/2025, 5:37 PM
@MarvelZombie616 - This. ^
Also, remember this movie supposedly has a budget of $375 million +.
There's no way this is turning a profit.
TheLobster
TheLobster - 1/10/2025, 6:11 PM
@AllsGood - you do realize this needs to make over 850mil just to break even right? That’s being conservative too and you’re not even factoring in inflation anyways lol

?si=mcjCGqCwdzBmppvB
AllsGood
AllsGood - 1/10/2025, 6:23 PM
@TheLobster - Do You Realize Marvel Studios Captain America: Brave New World these are EARLY TRACKIG Numbers and Higher than Deadpool and Wolverine a month out numbers before released?

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TheLobster
TheLobster - 1/10/2025, 6:31 PM
@AllsGood - yeah cause I’m sure this will do Deadpool and Wolverine numbers.. lol

When this thing flops, because again - it needs to hit a bil to make decent money and even then it would be labeled as underperforming, I hope you’ll have the integrity to admit you were wrong.
Batmangina
Batmangina - 1/10/2025, 6:56 PM
@AllsGood - I've been right about everything since No Way Home - here's one for ya: CAP4 will lose close to $400M when the real numbers finally come out. They spent far more than they are admitting and it will not even get close to Winter Soldier numbers. Not. Even. Close.

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AllsGood
AllsGood - 1/10/2025, 7:34 PM
@Batmangina - Nice Rant

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Amaru
Amaru - 1/10/2025, 8:38 PM
@TheLobster - You guys always talk out of your asses with the numbers that these movies require to break even.
dragon316
dragon316 - 1/10/2025, 10:05 PM
@MarvelZombie616 - that’s how most theory’s are wrong most of time
TheLobster
TheLobster - 1/11/2025, 3:27 AM
@Amaru - it’s simple math. It’s already been reported that the budget was estimated to be around $375 million due to reshoots. This film has been reshot extensively (even actors like Tim Blake Nelson said they’ve shot an entire movie twice by now) and now they have to market it.

Marketing is typically (for these types of films) half fhe budget of the film itself so let’s say 125mil for marketing.. you’re looking at 500mil in total. They’re half a billion in the hole. Let that sink in..

Anyways; the budget is you want to make 2.5 times that BARE MINIMUM to break even, because movie theaters get their share of ticket sales too. So no - I didn’t pull numbers out of my ass - I actually was conservative this entire time and you obviously don’t know how this shit works lol
Apophis71
Apophis71 - 1/11/2025, 6:34 AM
@TheLobster - NOT saying your wrong but the issue with trying to work out break even point is we tend to be always working on a rumor of the budget not the actual hard and fast figures the company is out of pocket prior to release. Even when we sort of do have official numbers such as a tax filling in the UK we don't know how much that was padded over an above the actual film costs to increase their tax rebate (and oft folk forget to take off the amount they do get in tax rebates reducing the out of pocket costs).

Ultimately if the film is generaly considered good and makes a total of around $500M or more most will consider that part of getting back on track for the MCU even if being stoopid with money means Disney makes a loss on it fiscaly (which they will likely somehow use to reduce to zero if they can the tax burdon on profits for other films/parts of the company anyway).
Rokhorn
Rokhorn - 1/11/2025, 7:31 AM
@TheLobster - You're my HERO OF THE DAY! For having to accurately explain the 2.5 multiplier for break even. People forget that theaters get 50% or more depending on the region and the marketing can be 50-100% of the budget. So if the budget is as reported $375M x 2.5 =$862.5M just to break even.i can't stand it when people think studios get 100% box office and a movie reaching it's production budget is profitable. HERO OF THE DAY!!! 50 GOLD STARS
Apophis71
Apophis71 - 1/11/2025, 9:01 AM
@Rokhorn - Yup, 2.5 times budget is the norm break even point, the issue with the so called simple math is it is a simplification of complex math based on a rumor of budget guessing how much reshoots cost after an initial rumor of a budget of $275M.

Impossible to know with certainty what the actual budget is but sure, break even point is likely to be north of $600M but probably isn't up there in the $850M or more region as most the time when these guestimate numbers go out they intentionaly don't factor in things like getting tax rebates either (such as if filmed in UK the Government refunds them 25% of all costs submitted thus a $400M film would actualy only cost $300M) to spin a guaranteed loss for clickbait reasons.
TheLobster
TheLobster - 1/11/2025, 1:59 PM
@Apophis71 - you make good points about the tax breaks and I do realize we don’t have a confirmed number but given that these films usually cost 250m on average and having to reshoot a majority of the entire film pretty much makes sense that it’s another 100m down the drain.

Also; given that they’ve delayed the film now a whole year - they’re losing money on the interest of the loan they’ve taken to make this film with the banks so that’s added cost too.

I do think you’re right about them just wanting to make sure they make a GOOD film above profit because at this point - it’s almost guaranteed they make no real profit. If this flops and it’s poorly received? That pain will cost them even more money down the line.
TheLobster
TheLobster - 1/11/2025, 2:03 PM
@Rokhorn - haha thanks! I find it hilarious when people are feeling confident this will do well because of a Fandango poll lmao

There’s also the potential of backend points for actors so they might have to share their (very little) profits even after the fact if they make any at all (doubtful) sooooo… yeah this is going to cost the studio and they already know it.
BraveNewClunge
BraveNewClunge - 1/10/2025, 3:38 PM
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Hype is growing 🍆📈💦
bobevanz
bobevanz - 1/10/2025, 3:38 PM
100m domestic opening used to be a cakewalk, now it's a lowball estimate on purpose. Good luck
TheVisionary25
TheVisionary25 - 1/10/2025, 3:39 PM
Do we know the official budget for this?.

If we don’t then it seems hard to figure out how much it would exactly need to be a success so we’ll see.

Personally , I think it seems good hence I’m looking forward to it…

If it indeed is a movie that’s positively received then I hope WOM can help it but we still have little over a month & such left so hope it turns out for the best , fingers crossed!!.

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Apophis71
Apophis71 - 1/10/2025, 3:45 PM
@TheVisionary25 - Do we EVER have official budget numbers and can we ever trust them even when we do, seen estimates but I never trust those regardless if they sound high or low.
TheVisionary25
TheVisionary25 - 1/10/2025, 3:51 PM
@Apophis71 - that’s true I guess

I know they have been some overplayed budget rumors going on but I feel like that happens with many of these movies now so idk.
Apophis71
Apophis71 - 1/11/2025, 6:21 AM
@TheVisionary25 - Was supposed to be around the $275M mark I think but some online claim they have blown way past that with estimated costs added on for reshoots (as in seen some claim they doubled the costs) but unsure I even trust the initial figure and hard to tell if such numbers are before or after all the tax rebates and other such things they get back from filming in specific locations.

Even if it doesn't break even and/or turn much profit I'd say it will still likely make at least half a billion at the BO, if good maybe upto $800M and ultimately as long as considered not a bad film will be considered a win still for the company as a result as I tend to feel they are more worried about long term brand trust than if one specific film makes big bucks or not.

Course if it totaly fails at the BO like The Marvels did, even if not a bad film and just middling MCU, then that is another matter but...
WhatIfRickJames
WhatIfRickJames - 1/10/2025, 3:39 PM
I'll go and see it in the theater because I'm kind of a completist. I feel like I'm going to have the same experience that I did when I saw Quantummania. I'm not expecting this to have nearly of an impact as when I saw the Winter Soldier. I was so hyper after seeing that.
AnEye
AnEye - 1/10/2025, 3:40 PM
Opening below Winter Soldier's opening numbers is pretty bad. However if it hits over $95 million then that would be alright.

Not counting Civil War, because lots of other factors carried the movie's box office.
BruceWayng
BruceWayng - 1/10/2025, 3:44 PM
We all know what this one’s gonna do…

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harryba11zack
harryba11zack - 1/10/2025, 3:55 PM
@BruceWayng - User Comment Image
ProfessorWhy
ProfessorWhy - 1/10/2025, 3:45 PM
Success will be determined by reviews on this one
TheFinestSmack
TheFinestSmack - 1/10/2025, 3:46 PM
And from now until release, those estimates will shrink every week until it opens to less than $50 million.
mountainman
mountainman - 1/10/2025, 4:33 PM
@TheFinestSmack - If this opens to $50 million, it’ll be a financial disaster on the level of Indy 5.
vectorsigma
vectorsigma - 1/10/2025, 8:40 PM
@mountainman - another thing that is not going for this movie is the huge budget with all the reshoots.
KwisatzHaderach
KwisatzHaderach - 1/10/2025, 3:49 PM
This one’s going to struggle
CreateNowSlpL8r
CreateNowSlpL8r - 1/10/2025, 3:51 PM
"the opportunity for Sam to really establish himself as a true action star and Avenger comes with this movie."

He was already an established Avenger until they screwed with him. The problem with Sam is his motivations and goals are unclear. The FAWS writing didn't help him in this regard because they injected identity politics in it but never actually created a problem Sam historically faced because of it. It never makes it clear why he objects to the serum either which puts him in a suit as a plot device.

I have a feeling, since this movie was reshoot a number of times its going to be a bunch of this happens, then this happens etc. Post Endgame Sam has been written poorly, he doesn't have clear goals, conflict or flaws. This is why his big moment in FAWS is a lecture. Thats the way the writers see him. He is morally right because of identity even though his experience in the MCU is anything but that. He IS a proper Avenger. He's helped saved the universe. Instead of building on that, we have to have a scene that he can't get a loan. This movie is the same people that did the series. No wonder they had to reshoot it a bunch of times. They are shit storytellers who wanted you to side with the flagsmashers.
KennKathleen
KennKathleen - 1/10/2025, 4:39 PM
@CreateNowSlpL8r - User Comment Image
Izaizaiza
Izaizaiza - 1/10/2025, 5:29 PM
@CreateNowSlpL8r - couldn't identity politics be part of his motivation? Given the introduction of Isaiah Bradley, it seems like identity politics could be a very real motivation in him wanting to assume the mantle of Captain America, and do a damn good job at it.
CreateNowSlpL8r
CreateNowSlpL8r - 1/11/2025, 1:54 PM
@Izaizaiza - Actually, yes. The problem is the MCU doesn't present that as a problem or even life experience for Sam. When Sam enters the MCU, Nick Fury is in charge of shield. Rhodey is an Avenger. Shortly after, Black Panther is introduced who is brillient and king of an entire country which is the most technically advanced country on the planet.

Endgame briefly shows Sam's motivation is to "do the best he can." The series begins with a version of Sam that is uncharacteristic. So if you want to use identity, you have to establish what happened to Sam as a result of his identity that causes this change in him. They didn't do that. Similarly, during the series, his identity is discussed as a plot device but they don't show you. Not even in flashbacks. So the way its written, its kind of character assassination. Sam just looks like he doesn't have the chops for it. He gives up the shield without even trying. This is the same guy who stepped up to help Steve when it was dangerous to do so. You can't leave it to the audience to guess "why." Its up to the writer to show and not tell. Remember this show was shot and came out during a time where there were real riots going on post George Floyd and for me, that was the writers inspiration. They repeatedly have conversations in the show that there is a legit motivation for that kind of behavior so they have Sam side with that narrative. Zemo represents the opposite. This behavior, anyone seeking the serum, are inheritently evil and need to be put down. In fact, Sam never really is changed by this journey. Sharon is the one who kills Karli. So we go through an entire series where Sam never develops. His point of view never changes. This is bad writing and since Sam is the hero, the writer uses him to communicate his position. Thats why the lecture in the end falls flat. Sam feels like the flagsmashers are victums so he gives it to the Senator.

Now before the usual crowd comes in with a hyper politcal view on this post. I'm not taking a position. I am breaking down the character arcs of the show and giving you my amateur opinion on how the writing is flawed. There are 100% ways to have made Sams identity part of his motivation but the writer uses it as a crutch. They change Sam but don't put in the work to develop Sam as a charater enough to have you justify his position. The writer assumes you agree with him.


@KennKathleen
KennKathleen
KennKathleen - 1/11/2025, 2:57 PM
@CreateNowSlpL8r -

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Izaizaiza
Izaizaiza - 1/11/2025, 6:37 PM
@CreateNowSlpL8r - Well, Sam is black in the United States, so I'm not sure that a personal experience with racism or identity politics was necessary, but the Isaiah Bradley story provided it.
CreateNowSlpL8r
CreateNowSlpL8r - 1/12/2025, 1:56 PM
@Izaizaiza - incorrect. The MCU doesn't establish anything Sam has experienced in the past influencing his decision at the start of the show and changing his character. Isaiah's experience is HIS experience, therefore would influence HIS arc and decisions.

You kind of made my point. The writer assumes you will agree with his position so he doesn't put in the work. He takes a position. At one point Bucky says something like, Steve and I didn't really think about passing the shield to a black man.

Right, because it doesn't matter. Sam was passed the shield from Captain America in front of the remaining Avengers. You might agree with the writers position but that doesn't make it good writing.
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