Hi Guys,
Just finished reading an article called "The MARVEL CINEMATIC UNIVERSE Has Officially Grossed Over $9 Billion Worldwide” by Rohan Patel.
The article points out what is the current overall gross of all Marvel/Disney produced movies, it is based on facts and is quoting sources like BoxOfficeMojo.com. That to me is a decent and ok source and the article itself states a very normal and understandable fact, those movies made this much.
However it seems to me that all the comments like "Marvel" keep beating "DC" have little to no sense in terms of financial perspective, argument, and actual basis coming from blind fan boys that don't really care that much for the business side and the actual reality of their statements.
Let’s try to put this into perspective, if the game is money and you guys attach yourself to the success of one's franchise and you like to point fingers than, let’s try and see in a more specific and organized argument, how thing really are.
For the purpose i will use my super skills of predictions based on my personal
boxooficemojo, my brain and some facts from the industry.
As you know Marvel hasn't always beaten DC, there were times when none of their movies could have lived up to the box office success of the Batman movies, but if we are to compare anything in the first place, we need a common ground. So what could that be, can we compare Blade to The Dark Knight, here are a few reasons why we can’t do that. First of all, any DC fan knows that the first thing a Marvel fan would say is "but Blade is not Disney/Marvel", ok so we can’t be taking into consideration movies based on Marvel comics that were not made by Kevin Feige and the current MCU collective, ok i agree. But if that is the case then why many of them are using examples like Green Lantern and Catwoman. In that case let’s use examples from the upcoming DCEU. You ask but how, they haven’t given us anything besides MOS, well easily we will speculate, based on common sense.
How am i going to compare the movies, simply by their release date confirmed in their own respective timeline, meaning that if both movie franchises started in the same year we would have gotten them in the same year and so they would have been competitors as well
In a perfect timeline things will look something like this
Iron Man vs Man of steel > $585,2 < $668,0
BVS DOJ vs The Incredible Hulk > UNKNOWN > $263,427,551
Suicide Squad vs Iron Man 2 > UNKNOWN > $623,933,331
If we look at the above movies, we have two already comparable ones with Iron Man and Man of Steel with a clear winner in Man of Steel (our so called worst Superman movies). Next up is BVS DOJ that will be second in our timeline versus the Incredible Hulk.
Hulk made his way around the 263 million dollars worldwide, not trying to sound like a hater but if we fail with BVS DOJ I expect a billion dollars more in the box office by DC’s movie. I give it 1.3 Billion at worst. I wasn’t really sure what to expect from Suicide Squad until I saw the trailer, now that I have seen it and the fact we have a new Joker and Batman in it, I predict it’s going to gross around 900 million worldwide in any case, good or bad. David Ayer is a solid film maker and I expect the case to be the best. Iron Man 2 was probably the weakest link of the franchise, but the movie made 623 million worldwide. For this mini phase, by my estimated number (based on me- hello) we have a DC at 2.868 Billion vs Marvel at 1.471 Billion.
Mini Phase 1 won by DC
Then we will have Mini Phase 2
Thor vs Wonder Woman > $449,326,618 < UNKNOWN
Captain America: The First Avenger vs Justice League, Part 1 > $370,569,774 < UNKNOWN
The Avengers vs The Flash > $1,519,5 > UNKNOWN
For the second batch we have Thor vs Wonder Woman, after she in introduced in BVS DOJ and the story concept we were given, director hired and co-starts, plus the fact it’s here first ever representation I bet that she will beat Thor by at least a 100 Million. Captain America will lose this battle by at least in the best case scenario a 1.2 Billion or more and for the third battle in this mini phase i predict that The Avengers will win with a 700 to 800 Million difference. So far in Mini Phase 2 we have DC at 2.820 vs Marvel at 2.338 Billion
Mini Phase 2 won by DC, of course it can be tied if Flash underperforms, but for now I say he doesn’t based on his crew involved, the actor and his
Injustice suit gossip.
Next up is Mini Phase number 3 >
Iron Man 3 vs Aquaman > $1,215,4 > UNKNOWN
Thor: The Dark World vs
Shazam > $644,783,140 < UNKNOWN
Captain America: The Winter Soldier vs Justice League, Part 2 > $714,766,572 < UNKNOWN
Here we have
Iron Man 3 as a win vs the first
Aquaman, Iron Man was coming of The Avengers’s success and it seemed people were patient enough to wait for another 4 years for a follow up. As far as Aquaman is concerned, he might be able to pull from the JLA movies or not, I know I love what I see so far in terms of look and direction. But just to be safe here I will predict him to perform somewhere around the 650 million mark worldwide approximately. As for Shazam with the Rock playing Black Adam and his fan club, plus what i expect from the movie i easily predict a 900 Million Worldwide box office, and next up is Caps second movie vs the second JLA movie where thing go in favor for JLA with 900 Million over in favor of
JLA no questions asked.
So Mini Phase 3 is now coming to the following prediction, with DC at 3.150 and Marvel at 2.573 billion, we have another DC phase won.
In the next mini Phase 4 we are going to have the following contenders…
Guardians of the Galaxy vs Cyborg > 774,1 > UNKNOWN
Avengers: Age of Ultron vs Green Lantern Corps > 1.402 > UNKNOWN
Here is my predictions here and those are the last since we don’t have any more DC lineup and it could very easy change after the first two movies are released and we see what works and what not.
Cyborg being a much unknown character exactly like
GOTG will have to rely mostly on FX, since I don’t know how much humor he can handle, to my opinion not very suitable. If DC gives us a mix between the new Robocop plus a little sci fi/tech thriller in a world of other superheroes I think we are safe to assume that coming of JLA and making his name more known he could do a decent 550 million worldwide.
Now the big mystery here is the
Green Lantern Coprs, but make no mistake I think DC has their biggest sleeper here in terms of a brand new Space Saga. The facts that its named that makes me think that will be a whole universe on its own.
I believe that this character and his own universe can be made into an epic trilogy on their own. I will predict here that they drop on us with a 700 Million worldwide gross, due to the negative effect from the RR movie.
And that’s a wrap on Mini Phase 4 due to no more DC movie confirmed for now.
We have DC at 1.250 and Marvel at 2.176,
winner is Marvel.
I do realize that you Marvel guys may not agree with some of the numbers but consider this, I have not taken into consideration what the DC movie are, how much time they are going to give each member, how much he can shine in a JLA movie or his potential based on a story line revolving him.
Also I am aware that some of the numbers might seems high, but we don’t know what characters co-star in the movie and how it will be branded. The ones I have doubts based on lack of information I have given lesser numbers with 200 -300 Million dollars based on that fact. Some I have given bigger numbers based on their current popularity and TV shows and overall exposure in both comics, games, animated DC movies and previous incarnations on the screen.
Now let’s see the predicted numbers from all Phases so far combined
We have DC sitting in on
10.08 Billion and Marvel sitting on 8.55 Billion. Now I know it’s not written in stone that those movie will gross as much as I said but as you see if I remove a 100 Million from each one we are still sitting a little higher at Marvel, movie for movie.
So please stop using numbers as you motivation why you like a movie, they are going into the pocket of CEO’s, directors, actors, investors, studio etc. If were to get movies that are not controlled by finances we might get a more epic and story driven franchise from both Marvel and DC, but since it needs to be PG 13, it needs to be funny, it needs to not feature violence and all the other tricks many times we don’t really see what we deserve.
Peace out. Thats a theory, dont kill me in the comments please !