AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER - When Will James Cameron's 3D Sequel Premiere On Disney+?

AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER - When Will James Cameron's 3D Sequel Premiere On Disney+?

Avatar: The Way of Water has already made $1 billion at the worldwide box office, but when can you expect to be able to revisit Pandora on Disney+? Here's everything we know so far about a streaming debut.

News
By JoshWilding - Dec 29, 2022 07:12 PM EST
Filed Under: Avatar
Source: SFFGazette.com

This article was originally published on SFFGazette.com; be sure to keep checking back there for the latest on Avatar: The Way of Water!

Prior to the pandemic, it was the norm for movies to be released on Digital platforms no sooner than 90 days after their release in theaters. That all changed in 2020, however, with Disney shortening that release window to 45 days.

As a result, this year has seen Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness hit Disney+ after 47 days, while Thor: Love and Thunder took a mere 62 days. In the case of Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, we've heard that the studio extended the window in order to give the sequel a chance to make as much money in theaters as possible.

As a result, it won't hit Disney+ until 2023, but what's the deal with Avatar: The Way of Water?

James Cameron's 3D sequel splashed down into theaters on December 16, and the filmmaker has made no secret of the fact this movie needs to make at least $2 billion to be deemed profitable. It's managed to hit $1 billion after just 12 days, but whether it will have the same legs as its predecessor remains to be seen. 

As a result, we don't anticipate the Avatar follow-up hitting Disney+ as soon as February 1. What we do know is that, in the U.S., it will likely premiere on both that streaming platform and HBO Max as a result of a pre-existing deal 20th Century Fox had with HBO (it expires at the end of this year, making Avatar: The Way of Water the final movie to fall under that agreement). 

Overseas, things are a little simpler as the movie will be exclusive to Disney+. Unfortunately, no official release date has been announced as of yet. However, based on past experience and Avatar: The Way of Water's current box office performance, we don't anticipate it being made available until March 2023 at the very soonest. 

"Avatar: The Way of Water’s epic visuals are impossible to find fault with," we said in our review earlier this month, "but with a paper-thin, painfully boring story and little in the way of character development, this three-hour snoozefest is all style, no substance."

Have you watched the movie on the big screen or are you waiting on its Disney+ debut?

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marvel72
marvel72 - 12/29/2022, 7:03 PM
It's going to be a case of,if it makes enough money, it'll be released sooner.
Itwasme
Itwasme - 12/29/2022, 7:04 PM
Is the 3D really worth it? As someone who is not typically a fan of 3D I just want to make sure.
Ha1frican
Ha1frican - 12/29/2022, 7:14 PM
I’m just waiting on the digital date for Wakanda Forever, I was unable to watch it in theaters for financial reason but I’m really jonesing to watch it in 4K at home
TyrantBossMedia
TyrantBossMedia - 12/29/2022, 7:22 PM
“ Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, we've heard that the studio extended the window in order to give the sequel a chance to make as much money in theaters as possible.”

That’s obvious being that BP2 is not really turning a profit at this point, and may not.
thewanderer
thewanderer - 12/29/2022, 8:10 PM
@TyrantBossMedia - BP2 started baking a profit quite awhile ago.
Toblakai
Toblakai - 12/29/2022, 8:12 PM
@thewanderer - barely

It just crossed 800 million, once you factor in budget and the percentages taken by theaters its made a miniscule profit if any at all at this point.

Another flop for the MSheU
thewanderer
thewanderer - 12/29/2022, 8:36 PM
@Toblakai - lol keep telling yourself that. It’s easily made over $100M in profit at this point. Without playing in Russia or China.
TyrantBossMedia
TyrantBossMedia - 12/29/2022, 10:24 PM
@thewanderer - It cost $250 million to produce
Add another $250 million for marketing
Add another $250 million + because half of all ticket sales goes to the theaters.

At just $800 million it’s either barely turning a profit or hasn’t made a profit yet.
That’s why Disney is keeping it in the theaters longer than it’s 45 day standard run.
TyrantBossMedia
TyrantBossMedia - 12/29/2022, 10:43 PM
@thewanderer - It didn't.

Here is more proof "From a financial standpoint, with a reported $250 million budget, factoring in theatrical and marketing expenses, the film needs to gross around $888 million worldwide to breakeven."

https://dailycampus.com/2022/11/15/box-office-breakdown-black-panther-wakanda-forever-is-king/

As I said in my previous reply to you Black Panther 2 needs closer to $800+ million to break even.
As of today it is $806.

If $888 million is the break even point as the website stated above then it needs at least 82 million more just to break even.

As of today 12/28 it is down to $1.6 million domestic for the day and globally it is earning about 1/3 of the domestic daily haul which is about $534,000 per day.

That is $2.1 million daily on the average without any drop in earnings.

That means BP2 needs another 39 days MINIMUM to break even.
Disney may keep it in theaters for another 30 days but I don't see them keeping it in for much longer than that especially with Avatar 2 having been released.

DVD sales may help but that's a totally different budgetary requirement.
and if BP2 doesn't turn a profit, or barely breaks even, I foresee Disney doing what they did with Spider-Man NWH and re-releasing it in a few months with some bonus scenes or a longer cut just so they can stir up the box office further.

But without those tricks and gimmicks.....Wakanda Forever is a bad earner for Disney/Marvel, and not much of one at that.

No significant profit may even kill the chances for a third film.
TyrantBossMedia
TyrantBossMedia - 12/29/2022, 10:49 PM
@thewanderer - Upon further research It seems like Marvel on the average sets a marketing budget of $150 million for their movies.

So $250 million production
+ $150 Million marketing
= $400 million
+ Twice Production to account for the 50% that goes to the theater groups $500 million)
= about $900 million overall cost.

That means BP2 will need to at least clear $900 million to break even.
It may be able to get buy the break even at $850 depending on the specifics of the budget, but even then, with the $2.1 million domestic/worldwide daily earnings they are looking at another 25 to 35 days to stay in theaters in order to hit the break even point, and that is if the $2.1 million daily remains at that amount without a decrease.
But it won't.

BP2 is going to have a hard time turning a profit or a significant one.
oreilly
oreilly - 12/30/2022, 12:07 AM
@TyrantBossMedia - Where do you get the twice the production budget going to the theatre groups from? In the U.S., theatres get about 1/3 of the domestic box office and the studio take 2/3. The theatres don't just get double what ever the production budget is.
TyrantBossMedia
TyrantBossMedia - 12/30/2022, 12:49 AM
@oreilly - That is the norm. Theaters get 45-50% off of every ticket.
regularmovieguy
regularmovieguy - 12/30/2022, 4:27 AM
@TyrantBossMedia

You’re an idiot if you don’t think BP is making its money back.

Disney gets upwards of 60-65% of box office ticket sales at least for the first couple weeks.

The movie already made its money back, even if its underperforming.
regularmovieguy
regularmovieguy - 12/30/2022, 4:28 AM
@TyrantBossMedia

“ + $150 Million marketing
= $400 million
+ Twice Production to account for the 50% that goes to the theater groups $500 million)
= about $900 million overall cost”

Tyrant Boss Media thinks this movie cost about 900 mil to make lmao
TyrantBossMedia
TyrantBossMedia - 12/30/2022, 7:46 AM
@regularmovieguy - Looking for friends to come to your rescue?

You are so juvenile.
thewanderer
thewanderer - 12/30/2022, 7:47 AM
@TyrantBossMedia - dude, Endgame didn't even have $250M in marketing.

Endgame's marketing came in just under $200M.


Even using super conservative numbers, Wakanda Forever has made about $100M profit so far.
thewanderer
thewanderer - 12/30/2022, 7:49 AM
@TyrantBossMedia - you don't double the marketing costs. By your numbers, anything over $650M is profit.
regularmovieguy
regularmovieguy - 12/30/2022, 8:05 AM
@TyrantBossMedia

“ Looking for friends to come to your rescue?”

Lmao… no. Just calling you an idiot for not knowing how the box office works.
TyrantBossMedia
TyrantBossMedia - 12/30/2022, 9:54 AM
@thewanderer - You need to read the last post where I have more accurate numbers based on my further research.
TyrantBossMedia
TyrantBossMedia - 12/30/2022, 9:55 AM
@thewanderer - Again, You need to read the last post where I have more accurate numbers based on my further research.
TyrantBossMedia
TyrantBossMedia - 12/30/2022, 9:57 AM
@regularmovieguy - Well of course because those who hate to admit basic facts always result to name calling.

Even IF Disney (as they are said to admit unofficially) make 60-75% off each ticket, which I think is closer to 60 than 75 then BP2 still hasn't turned much of a profit as I have already stated.

And let's be honest....you want your friends to come to your rescue because you know you aren't able to content with me intelligently.
regularmovieguy
regularmovieguy - 12/30/2022, 10:11 AM
@TyrantBossMedia

“ And let's be honest....you want your friends to come to your rescue because you know you aren't able to content with me intelligently.”

Lol… if I needed friends to “save” me I’d tag them. You think way too highly of yourself, bud. 🤡

The rule of thumb is production budget x 2.5/3. Obviously we don’t have hard numbers for the marketing budget but if this were the case it would need 625-750 million to break even.

The movie is in the black regardless so by all accounts you’re still a moron.
TyrantBossMedia
TyrantBossMedia - 12/30/2022, 10:24 AM
@regularmovieguy - You are resulting to a "rule of thumb" which means you have no empirical data to defend your point, just a blanket mathematic shortcut.
I spelled my numbers out succinctly and am correct.
Matt Damon even spoke of the numbers in a recent interview and his numbers match what I wrote.

Again...more name calling that's all you have.

No, You posted to me twice hoping others would see your post and run to back you up.
I know your game. You are like little school yard bullies who try to gang up on people here whenever you don't agree with them.....no matter how wrong you are.

And you are wrong.
regularmovieguy
regularmovieguy - 12/30/2022, 10:47 AM
@TyrantBossMedia

“I spelled my numbers out succinctly and am correct.
Matt Damon even spoke of the numbers in a recent interview and his numbers match what I wrote.”

LOL. First off, your numbers are wrong. Straight up. You say I don’t have any hard number for the marketing budget and that’s the point, neither do you. But you’re a moron if you don’t think the movie is in the green at this point. Seriously.

And wtf does Matt Damon know about Black Panther’s break even point? Please point me to that interview

He literally had nothing to do with the movie 🤣
regularmovieguy
regularmovieguy - 12/30/2022, 10:48 AM
We’ll know how much the movie made sometime early next year. Or at least have a better idea.
thewanderer
thewanderer - 12/30/2022, 10:56 AM
@TyrantBossMedia - Yes, they are even less accurate.
MRjordansurf
MRjordansurf - 12/30/2022, 11:33 AM
@Toblakai - this is a real weird take.”mSheU”? Care to elaborate?
TyrantBossMedia
TyrantBossMedia - 12/30/2022, 11:41 AM
@regularmovieguy - I spelled it all out for you. I'm sorry that simple math is difficult for you to understand. It's okay to admit it. Not everybody has the intelligence to grasp addition and subtraction.

My numbers are FAR more accurate than your blanket "rule of thumb". But what else should I expect you to cling to when you can't calculate profit and loss.

Matt Damon is a movie producer. He knows the movie business and his calculations match others that I have heard.
You see son...basic math, earnings and expenditures, basic economics apply to any movie they don't differ between films. I know you'd like to think that Black Panther 2 is held to a much more lenient economic standard for some reason, but you would also be wrong.

All you have is name calling and that's a sure sign that you have lost your argument and you know it.
Nice try small fry.
regularmovieguy
regularmovieguy - 12/30/2022, 11:47 AM
@TyrantBossMedia

Where’s the interview where Matt Damon is giving us Wakanda Forever’s break even numbers?

I’ll gladly wait for it. Second time I’ve asked.

“ My numbers are FAR more accurate than your blanket "rule of thumb".

Declaring something doesn’t make it true. You still have no idea what their numbers are and you still don’t think the movie has made profit at 800 million. Its numbers are disappointing compared to the first movie but it’s in the green.

You’ve called me “son” and “small fry” at this point. Please keep going 😂
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