Where do we think The Amazing Spider-Man 2 will end up? Obviously the fan has its critics (a lot of them on this site) but, against that, will it be able to make the amount Sony wants or, in other words, $1 billion? Or will it truly be the Batman and Robin to Spider-Man and destroy the franchise?
Word of Mouth
Despite mostly positive reviews for it,
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 will likely have "so-so" crictical reaction upon it making it into the United States. Before
Iron Man 3's release in the US, its RT score was in the low 80s and it went down to a 78%. With
The Amazing Spider-Man 2's critical reception holding a 72% (at the time of this writing), it would seem like it'd be a very good testament to how strong the film is being received in America if it stays in the 70s.
What does this mean? With critical reaction likely to suffer after the first weekend at the box office,
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 will likely have to have really good word of mouth from the General Audience which seems to be unlikely to sway people. In the case of
Captain America: The Winter Soldier it had critical reception to back it up as well as strong fan reaction.
The Amazing Spider-Man 2's fan reaction will likely be good, but not great and could also suffer.
Marketing
This is probably the film's strongest point with them "bombarding" us with trailers and TV Spots. However, while this may not be appealing to most fans that follow EVERYTHING, it makes sure that people who don't know that this film IS coming. The marketing has also appealed heavily to the visual effects in the film which often sells the casual moviegoer into seeing these types of films. Many would say that the marketing has "sucked" but, really, it'll probably be the thing that'll benefit this movie the most with not-so-positive reaction.
What does this mean? The marketing campaign has allowed for so much of the general audience to catch what is going on that it'll likely off-set low critical reception and then some. The critical reception would likely have to go into holes deeper than that with which
Man of Steel slumped to in order to destroy this film's legs. Plus, there is no superhero (besides Batman and Iron Man) that such easy sells to the General Audience as Spider-Man.
Release Date
Unlike its predecessor, it isn't smack-dab in the middle of the summer. Not only in the middle of the summer, but in the middle of an INTENSELY overpacked summer. What with
The Avengers and
The Dark Knight Rises, the superhero reboot had little attention from the General Audience, getting their superhero fix from largely hyped movies instead. It was largely successful, however, as it is still the largest-grossing reboot of all time. Now, with
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 scoring the prime first Friday of May release date, it also kicks off the summer, allowing it to be one of the big boys.
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 started its international release two weeks earlier which was a smart move because it has very little time until the undoubted behemoth of Asia will be back in the form of
Godzilla.
Godzilla probably won't be as big in America as it is overseas which gives Spider-Man something to worry about if he doesn't have room to breathe. By putting a little less than a month between him and most of the release dates abroad, he can ensure maximum profits.
Godzilla, again, will probably top the box office in America but
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 will likely be able to hold an audience better in the United States. Back to the international figures,
Captain America: The Winter Soldier has pretty much peaked and has started to slow down (although I suspect it will probably end up in the mid-700 million dollar range). This means that
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 can capitalize on it and enjoy about a month internationally without fear of being shown up. In America, where attention spans are small,
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 only has two weeks to make most of its domestic profits even if there wasn't much coming out on its third weekend.
What does this mean? It scored. This will likely make
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 one of the biggest blockbusters this year just based on where it is alone. Not to mention limited competition internationally before
Godzilla and the United States being a likely big market for the film following the reboot which put off a lot of its likely audience.
Verdict
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 will definitely divide fans but it probably won't be as divisive with the general audience. With the combined force of the powerful marketing campaign and the amazing release date, it will likely draw a huge audience. Despite movies like
Godzilla and, one week later,
X-Men: Days of Future Past clawing at its legs, it has a pretty substantial amount of time to situate itself. However, word of mouth might work against the total of the film in a way
Sony probably wasn't hoping it would.
Domestic: $300-350 million (bigger than its predecessor, but smaller than the previous holders of the same release date)
Foreign: $550-650 million (bigger than its predecessor because of how long it has to situate itself and the power of special effects)
Overall
Pessimist: $850 million
Overall
Optimist: $1 billion
With both of these being extreme numbers, it'd be safe to say
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 will land itself somewhere in the middle of the two overall estimates with $925 million being my final bet. Not bad at all but not what
Sony was hoping for.