2013 CBM Box Office Predictions

2013 CBM Box Office Predictions

After an incredible year at the box office for comic book movies of all kind, it's now time to look forward to the great selection of CBMs that will be hitting screens in 2013. Check out my article, predicting how I think each big CBM will do at the box office next year by clicking ahead.

Editorial Opinion
By NerdyGeek - Sep 03, 2012 05:09 PM EST
Filed Under: Other

This year, with the release of The Avengers, The Amazing Spider-Man and The Dark Knight Rises, box office records were broken all across the world and comic fans rejoiced as they were treated to three critically acclaimed blockbusters that all flew past the $500M barrier at the box office, as well as the $1 billion barrier for The Avengers and The Dark Knight Rises. So, now we look forward to the future comic book movies that will be hitting screens next year. In this article, I'm going to lay down my box office predictions for Iron Man 3, Man of Steel, The Wolverine and Thor: The Dark World. I also encourage you all to list your predictions in the comments section below.

Iron Man 3 (May 3rd)



Opening Weekend: $160M
Worldwide Total: $850M


What It Has Going For It: After the phenomenal success of Marvel's The Avengers, the solo characters in the team have a new found popularity in the public eye. Of course, the first two films in the Iron Man franchise were also huge money makers, but nothing like The Avengers. I'm predicting The Avengers' success to propel a worldwide total of $850M for the threequel, which is $200M more than Iron Man 2's total. Another thing the third Iron Man film directed by Shane Black has going for it is that the film will begin the summer movie season, just like The Avengers did this past May. If you look back at the opening weekend totals for films that launched in the first weekend of May, you will see that these films bring in big bucks so it was very smart of Marvel to secure the May 3rd spot. The star power of Robert Downey Jr. alone gives any film he stars in a tremendous chance of being successful, as he is one of the most popular actors around. I'm predicting a $160M opening for the film, which is $40M more than Iron Man 2's opening total.

What It Has Going Against It: Like all the films here, Iron Man 3 could bring in either good or bad word of mouth, if it attracts the latter, it will not be good for IM3 or any of these films. The film will probably stay in the top spot at the box office until May 17th, when Star Trek 2 arrives in cinemas, which is will likely de-throne the film from the top stop, unless Tyler Perry does that on May 10th, which is doubtful.


Man Of Steel (June 14th)



Opening Weekend: $110M
Worldwide Total: $550M


What It Has Going For It: It's Superman! The ultimate superhero, everybody knows his name, he's a guaranteed money maker, especially when the movies he is in are actually good, so let's first hope Man of Steel is good, because it is a risk for WB to bring the character back to the big screen after the disappointment that was Superman Returns. One thing on the film's side is that the marketing for the film (the teaser and SDCC trailer at least) puts some focus on Christopher Nolan and his The Dark Knight Trilogy, after two films in that trilogy reaching the $1B mark, the mention of Nolan (who is a producer on the flick) and his CBM trilogy is sure to attract some audiences. Man of Steel is also rumored to be released in IMAX and 3D, so raised ticket prices will help the flick earn more than 2D sales, like all 3D flicks.

What It Has Going Against It: Now, many of you are probably shocked by my low predictions, but bear in mind that Man of Steel is a reboot. Batman Begins, while succesful wasn't anywhere close to the success of The Dark Knight and earlier this year, everybody was predicting The Amazing Spider-Man to make $1B, now that figure seems unlikely to happen and the film looks to be the lowest grossing Spider-Man film to date. After the disappointing box office total for Superman Returns, audiences won't be too keen to see a Superman movie straight away. The film won't have much competition on opening weekend, so the #1 spot is expected, but for Week 2, Pixar's Monsters University hits US theaters, which will likely take the #1 spot from the flick. And then there is the question of, is Superman still relevant on film? We will have to wait and see on that one. Unless the film gets incredibly good word of mouth like The Avengers or The Dark Knight, I can only see MOS just breaking the $500M barrier, at best, because of he is one of the most popular Superheroes after all.


The Wolverine (July 26th)



Opening Weekend: $55M
Worldwide Total: $400M


What It Has Going For It: The star power of Hugh Jackman and the character of Wolverine being so popular will definitely bode in the film's favor plus it should make big bucks over in Japan since the story is set there. But asides from that, not much I'm afraid.

What It Has Going Against It: Poor word of mouth stopped X-Men Origins: Wolverine from being the huge money maker FOX was hoping for. So, hopefully The Wolverine can actually be good this time. But, a question I would like to ask is, are audiences sick of Wolverine? This will be the fifth time the character has been the focus of an X-Men movie and maybe audiences don't want to see the character once again. Though, the latest X-Men film, X-Men: First Class made less money than Origins and First Class was the far superior film, so maybe people are not sick of the character. I do think the film will be a success for FOX if it is good or bad, but I also think audiences don't care for the X-Men films as much anymore thanks to the poor X-Men: The Last Stand and the aforementioned Origins film. There is no word yet on wheter or not The Wolverine will be in 3D, but given recent FOX blockbusters not being in the format, I'm going to say it won't be in 3D, which will hurt the film.


Thor: The Dark World (November 8th)



Opening Weekend: $95M
Worldwide Total: $620M


What It Has Going For It: Like I said with Iron Man 3, the success of The Avengers has made the the characters on the team even more popular, and after the success of the first Thor movie ($450M worldwide), a big opening is expected for the Alan Taylor-directed sequel. I'm going to go with $95M, which is $30M more than the first Thor film's opening. There isn't too much to say in the film's favor because a lot of what applies for Iron Man 3 applies here.

What It Has Going Against It: While Iron Man 3 will probably have two weeks at the top spot, Thor: The Dark World will definitely lose the top spot to The Hunger Games: Catching Fire in it's second weekend, that film is expected to have a huge opening, this could mean a serious drop for the fantasy epic which is not good news. Also, Disney's Frozen hits theaters two weeks after the second Thor film's release, which means another possible drop for the film. Hopefully, if the film is good, it will have strong legs against the competition. I predict Thor: The Dark World will make around $620M, in the same region of Iron Man 2's total gross back in 2010.

So there's my predictions for the big Comic Book Movies next year, I hope you enjoyed this read and be sure to list your own predictions in the comments area below! But just remember this list was just for fun, in the end we all win, remember that everybody and be respectful in the comments.




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NerdyGeek
NerdyGeek - 9/3/2012, 5:53 PM
Hmm, yeah, my opening predictions aren't the best but you never know. I tweaked the Thor one and the MOS one. I think what I have to say about each film is a bit more important than my wild predictions.
JDUKE25
JDUKE25 - 9/3/2012, 6:00 PM
Im3: $800 million
MoS: $750 million
Thor2: $700 million
Wolv: $550 million
JDUKE25
JDUKE25 - 9/3/2012, 6:02 PM
Wouldn't be surprised if Iron Man got to a billion,(if the story is better than 2). Same for Man of Steel, depends on the story and action, but could close in on a billion.

But these are just grounded, realistic predictions for me above.
marvel72
marvel72 - 9/3/2012, 6:03 PM
not gonna try predict anything until i see the trailers,i made three predictions this year & they were all wrong.

i believe iron man 3 & thor the dark world will do well on the strength of previous films & the avengers.

man of steel & the wolverine are hard to predict,maybe $500,000,000 each.
thebearjew
thebearjew - 9/3/2012, 6:04 PM
ya i think man of steel may bring in the most then iron man 3 then thor tdw then the wolverine the last wolverine movie left a bad taste in folks mouths ill go see it but the general public im not sure hope its good though
lokibane2012
lokibane2012 - 9/3/2012, 6:20 PM
My predictions:

IM3 - $850Mil
Third part of a successful solo franchise, Avengers should help considering IM is MCU's flagship character. The buzz is high for it (from the Twitter/Facebook data someone posted here after SDCC). And if nothing else, international audiences adore long running big franchises, and it should rake in big international at least. Domestically, people may suffer from IM fatigue with 4 films featuring IM within 5 years of each other. But again, international audiences will help.

MOS - $850Mil (Or $550Mil, hear me out)
If everything goes well, if the film's good (Nolan's script and Snyder's direction work together as well as they should, on paper), the marketing is heavy enough etc. Then this film will rake in the cash Domestic and International based on name recognizability and trailers which indicate that this is finally a Superman movie that will do justice to the character. In terms of character depth and action. However my second prediction is based on the marketing going wrong. WB seems to have the idea that Returns failed because people don't connect with Supes in today's day and age. Whereas a more accurate account of it's failure would be that people were very excited for it, but the movie sucked/bored, and poor word of mouth killed it eventually. Now 6 years later WB is releasing teasers showing a Superman (or rather, Hobo-man) that broods all the time, which might misfire and bring back negative memories of the first film. I remember at my screening of TDKR. Dead silence of apathy after the teaser aired. Now again, it's just a teaser, the main trailer and marketing might show a bit more of the exciting side of things. But I'm slowly losing confidence considering how EVERYONE involved (Cavill, Snyder, Nolan) keeps trying to hammer in that fact. And that might just hurt the very important marketing approach.

Wolvie - $300Mil
The excitement is dead for this franchise. There was once a time when people used to jizz their pants at just the mention of Wolverine. But that's changed after XM3 sucked, Wolvie sucked, and XMFC (although a brilliant film) featured less exciting members of X-Men. The apathy hurt XMFC, and I know it will hurt this too. So, I say it'll do ok, but not much more than that.

Thor 2 - $550Mil
Thor was a success, Avengers further boosted Thor' popularity, the film itself will explore more exciting areas of the Thor mythology. I would've predicted $650Mil had it not been for Hunger Games 2 coming out almost immediately after. And it is a fact, that most of the under 18 audience will be going in droves to see Hunger Games 2 instead of this. And that will hurt a bit. I initially thought it could be devastating, but then I remembered the apathy that the first Hunger Games was met with internationally, which is a big factor that could help Thor flourish.
lokibane2012
lokibane2012 - 9/3/2012, 6:21 PM
[frick] it. I change my prediction for IM3 to $900Mil provided the movie itself is good, and word of mouth elevates it over IM2's.
TheLoveDoc
TheLoveDoc - 9/3/2012, 6:21 PM
Iron Man will have far less than a 160 mil opening weekedn. Also, Superman will have a much higher worldwide total, I'd put it over 800 mil.
lokibane2012
lokibane2012 - 9/3/2012, 6:30 PM
@starscream9289
Uhhh... no. Not everyone though TDKR was gonna beat Avengers. And that's because it never was going to. What people forget is that when it comes to big movies, it's not just about how good or bad something is. According to tracking, Avengers was appealing to all four quadrants. For TDKR it was mainly adult males. This wide-appeal, combined with the fact that it was a very good and REWATCHABLE movie made it inevitable that Avengers was going to gross more. Especially considering how TDKR has met with a disappointed/mixed reception, doesn't have a wide appeal, isn't really rewatchable for most people, and is ass-numbingly long (LOTR flourished despite this, but it had EVERYTHING else going for it, and those films were a bit of an event that TDKR was not).
lokibane2012
lokibane2012 - 9/3/2012, 6:34 PM
Oh and I totally forgot to mention the advantage of the 3D surcharge that Avengers had & TDKR did not.

Anyone who seriously thought TDKR was going to outgross the Avengers (mainly after Avengers was done breaking all sorts of records) was deluding themselves.

Now calm yourselves down people (mainly Nolanites), I haven't said which movie was better worse. I have just stated the facts.

Wide Appeal
Running Time
Rewatchability
3D surcharge
(and eventually even Critical Reception)

Even before the shooting occured, the film was never actually going to surpass Avengers' mammoth $1.5Billion gross.
CoolantTech
CoolantTech - 9/3/2012, 6:49 PM
My predictions are:

1)Ironman 3 $850mil-$1bil
2)MoS $600mil-$800mil
3)The Wolverine $450mil-$650mil
4)Thor TDW $650mil-$850mil
TheGambitFreak
TheGambitFreak - 9/3/2012, 6:51 PM
"Whore Face"....







"Awwww... Look at little Goblin Jr.... Wanna Cry?"








lokibane2012
lokibane2012 - 9/3/2012, 6:54 PM
@starscream9289

dude, I stated 3D as ONE of the many advantages. 3D alone wasn't the reason Avengers made 150% the money TDKR did. 3D HELPED, sure. But let's not get carried away.
lokibane2012
lokibane2012 - 9/3/2012, 6:55 PM
LMFAO@Gambit with the abrupt liefeld picture at the end.
lokibane2012
lokibane2012 - 9/3/2012, 6:57 PM
@starscream9289

GoILL
GoILL - 9/3/2012, 7:03 PM
Good stuff Irish, I think your predictions were pretty good maybe off by a few million but still pretty good. Great stuff Gambit on the pics.
Tainted87
Tainted87 - 9/3/2012, 7:29 PM
Man of Steel is going to ANNIHILATE Thor, regardless of Superman Returns and Avengers. Thor just isn't THAT popular, although clearly, Hemsworth has reached stardom among younger audiences.

The only close one here is probably Wolverine, IF the trailer is exciting.
CharlesLord
CharlesLord - 9/3/2012, 7:51 PM
yea im not gonna predict anything until i see trailers
CyclopsWasRight
CyclopsWasRight - 9/3/2012, 8:09 PM
Kick-Ass 2?
Lego
Lego - 9/3/2012, 8:14 PM
55 million for Wolverine on OW? lmaoo

THEDARKKNIGHT1939
THEDARKKNIGHT1939 - 9/3/2012, 8:16 PM
I am not really good at predicting box office so I can't really say anything here Lol
jimpinto24
jimpinto24 - 9/3/2012, 8:24 PM
IM3-$400 million
Man of Steel-$500 million
The Wolverine-$35-$50 million
Thor:TDW-$300 million
ATrueHero1987
ATrueHero1987 - 9/3/2012, 8:25 PM
Idk why people thought TASM would make a billion. Anyway, I agree with most of your predictions.
SmellofDuty
SmellofDuty - 9/3/2012, 8:31 PM
@gambitFreak Leanna Decker is sooooooooo hot. :D Lawlz...
StormLoganSummers
StormLoganSummers - 9/3/2012, 8:35 PM
These sound good to me.
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