Closing out its third week of release, Marvel's Thunderbolts* has officially grossed over $300 million at the worldwide box office.
"The New Avengers" added $16.5 million domestically and $15.7 million from international territories to bring its worldwide gross to $325.7 million.
The problem here is that the film carries a hefty $180 million production budget and has an estimated $100 million marketing budget, meaning Marvel Studios' total all-in cost is approximately $280 million.
The revenue split between movie theaters and studios is a complex and dynamic process that isn't a fixed percentage.
The division of box office earnings isn't etched in stone with a single, unwavering percentage; rather, it's a fluid arrangement that evolves over a film's theatrical run.
In the crucial first few weeks of a movie's release , the lion's share of ticket sales typically flows into the studio's coffers. This initial dominance, often ranging from a substantial 60% upwards or more, acknowledges the studio's significant investment in production and marketing.
However, as the cinematic spotlight on a film begins to dim with the passage of time, and its box office draw naturally tapers off, the revenue pendulum gradually swings, granting theaters a progressively larger slice of the remaining pie.
Also, large cinema chains frequently command more advantageous terms from studios, securing a greater portion of the revenue compared to their smaller, independent counterparts, who naturally possess less leverage at the negotiating table.
Despite the intricate ebb and flow of these percentages throughout a film's theatrical run, a common industry understanding suggests that, when the final credits roll on a movie's time in theaters, the cumulative revenue split often approximates an even 50/50 distribution between the studio and the theaters.
With Thunderbolts* carrying a $280 million cost for Marvel Studios, it needs to reach somewhere in the neighborhood of $500-$560 million just to break even (from theater ticket sales alone- home video and blu-ray sales, along with broadcast rights will ensure that the film recoups its costs, eventually).
Looking at the current projections for Thunderbolts*, it's unlikely to get there. Currently, box office tracking has Thunderbolts* running similarly to Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings ($432.2M worldwide) and The Eternals ($402.06M worldwide).
In fact, Thunderbolts* is currently running behind Captain America: Brave New World, which sat at $163.6 million domestically after its third weekend of release, while Thunderbolts is currently sitting at $155.4 million domestically. Globally, Brave New World sat at $341.8 million worldwide after three weeks while Thunderbolts* currently sits at $325.7 million.
The current narrative that Thunderbolts* is some sort of runaway smash hit is somewhat baffling, especially when the film that preceded it (which was painted as a big misfire) is currently outperforming it.
The only advantage that Thunderbolts* has over Brave New World, from a financial standpoint, was the fact that the SAG-AFTRA and WGA strike, and costly reshoots, ballooned the budget for Brave New World to a reported $380 million.
Thunderbolts* also have vastly superior review scores with an 88% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes, while Brave New World came in 'rotten' at 47%.
Still, what do you think a film studio would rather have- a film that has bad reviews but makes a lot of money, or a film that has great reviews but is going to put them in the red? Although neither Thunderbolts* nor Brave New World will turn a profit from ticket sales alone.
While $300 million worldwide is a significant number, Thunderbolts* still has a ways to go to be considered a major financial success for Marvel Studios, especially when compared to its production and marketing costs and its performance against a film with weaker reviews.