The Master. Lincoln. The Surrogate. Django Unchained. Les Miserables. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey. Argo. Gravity. Brave. The Great Gatsby.
And Batman.
If you only recognize a few of the films on the list, then you're not far from the rest of the general public. What you might not know is that this list will more than likely attribute 2012 as the best year for movies since 1999.
Christopher Nolan has a few strikes against him that aren't particularly his fault. He's been Oscar nominated three times; once for Memento (Writing) and twice for Inception (Writing, Best Picture). While it's no secret that
The Dark Knight was Oscar-snubbed beyond Ledger's portrayal of The Joker, Nolan isn't just in hyper waters for his own film.
His competition includes Paul Thomas Anderson, a writer/director with a resume just as impressive (if not more) than Nolan's. Tom Hooper, a now Oscar veteran after his win with
The King's Speech in a seemingly underdog victory against David Fincher's
The Social Network. Peter Jackson, who directed
Lord of The Rings: Return of the King to a total of 11 Oscars. Fan and Academy favorite Quentin Tarantino (who has actually only won for penning
Pulp Fiction). And of course, the legendary Steven Spielberg, who brings to the ceremony Daniel Day-Lewis as an Abraham Lincoln who doesn't slaughter the undead.
Now, if you've heard, critics have acted rather strongly to their screening of
The Dark Knight Rises, but don't forget that it is not just by their hand that pushes the film into consideration for Best Picture. Nolan must win over the Academy. Is it possible? I don't see why it isn't. But I will say that I don't think it's probable.
For this, I turn to
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II. Another wide-release, critically praised (an 87/100 Metascore and a 96% RT score) that smashed box office records, finished not just a trilogy, but a set of eight films spread over a decade, and was, of course, a Warner Brothers production. Potter went on to receive three Oscar nominations: Art Direction, Makeup, Visual Effects. The movie had everything going for it; Alan Rickman was rumored to easily grab a Best Supporting Actor nom, and there was incredible speculation on how it would be a shoo-in for Best Picture. When it failed to come, people realized the members of the Academy greatly enjoyed Potter, and would attest to its greatness as a film. But when it came time to vote for the "Best Picture," Potter just didn't cut it.
Now, of course, this is all speculation, but looking back at 2008 (but remember now that more than just 5 films are considered for Best Picture) that the nominated films were
Slumdog Millionaire(winner),
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,
The Reader,
Milk, and
Frost Nixon. It was a year without the likes of Peter Jackson, Spielberg, Tarantino, Anderson...etc. etc.
I'll hold out hope that if Batman is as good as it seems to be, that it'll get the Academy's recognition. But if it doesn't, I won't be the least surprised. It's going up against a hard set. My Oscar predictions?
Best Picture: The Master
Best Actor: John Hawkes (The Surrogate)
Best Screenplay: Lincoln
Best Actress: Viola Davis (Won't Back Down)
Best Director: Tom Hooper (Les Mis)
Best Supporting Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio (Django)/Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
Best Supporting Actress: Anette Benning (Imogene)
I'd also like to throw in some love for Joss Whedon. While I think
The Avengers may grab a few visual nods from the Academy, I know he'll go unnoticed. I'll just say this: in order to take five films that aren't yours, combine them together effectively to become the third biggest film of all time, and still create a fantastic movie...it's skill and devotion. As a director, he capitalized on everything he should have to deliver the film fans expected, and for that, I thank him.