Why The Dark Knight Rises may not succeed at the Box Office?

Why The Dark Knight Rises may not succeed at the Box Office?

If you are a Christopher Nolan fan or Batman fan better read the entire article and share your views via comments. This article us not to hurt any batman fans feelings (as I am a fan of batman too and that's why I write here) but just some speculations with strong facts.

Editorial Opinion
By tdkr21 - Nov 16, 2010 08:11 PM EST
Filed Under: Batman
Source: The Dark Knight Rises Site

I will just say it out loud “The Dark Knight Rises” may not succeed in the box office. I am sure that many Batman and Christopher Nolan fans would be crying out loud when they read this article. Also I am not exaggerating and I want the movie to succeed as well. These are just facts.

Some facts which are true :-

Even though I love the Batman series (both Batman begins and The Dark Knight) and an ardent fan of Christopher Nolan, I say this because there are a lot of factors which we should take into account between now and the time when the movie will be released. The movie will be released at a time where the box office will be full of Super Hero movies. Between now and July 2012 more than 20 Super Hero movies are getting released. This might be one of the main reasons why The Dark Knight Rises might fail. People may be bored by Super Hero movies by that time.

Peoples' Expectations:-

Also there is always something called “Expectations factor” which is both good but at the same time really dangerous. The amount expectations created by Christopher Nolan due to The Dark Knight and The Inception movie are huge. Hence we will be expecting a hell lot from this movie. If the movie fails to cater these expectations it might bomb at the Box Office. The very next factor is “Third movie curse”. This is true up to some extent as mostly all the third movie of a trilogy fails at box office except a very few like Toy Story 3 and The Lord of The Rings-Return of the king.

Villain Factor:-

The next is the Joker factor, I am sure everyone would agree that nobody can match Joker as the villain and this would be in the mind of the actor who will be casted as the villain of The Dark Knight Rises as well as in Nolan’s mind. So guys let’s hope that Christopher Nolan does a great Job and break in all these factors and give us a great movie that will be the greatest among the Batman Triology.

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bleedthefreak
bleedthefreak - 11/16/2010, 8:34 PM
take the picture out of the damn teaser. Also it is the sequel to one of the highest grossing movies people are going to see it. Hell it might even out gross TDK.
Ryguy88
Ryguy88 - 11/16/2010, 8:42 PM
I didn't know that it was a fact that some people may be bored of CBMs in 2012....Thank you for that!

Every movie has a chance at failing, but based on the odds this has to be as safe a bet to succeed as you can get. It may be hard pressed to out-gross The Dark Knight, but I think that at least $400M domestic is all but a guarantee.
tbizzle
tbizzle - 11/16/2010, 9:08 PM
1. Yes, there are a lot of superhero films coming out between now and then, but this is the only BATMAN film. The Dark Knight Rises is one of the most anticipated comic films, period. People are gonna want to see it.

2. Yes expectations are high, but with a director like Nolan, you don't have to worry too much about him not delivering. Same with Fincher, PTA, etc.

3. "Nobody can match the Joker as a villain." Why? Why can't someone else come along and become an amazing, iconic villain?
Protonite
Protonite - 11/16/2010, 10:39 PM
For someone with a name like "TDKR21" you sure sound like you have little belief in your own interests.

BTW, define "success at the Box Office". Are you just basing it on whether it beats TDK numbers or not? Because I'm pretty sure there are a lot of CBMs that didn't even come close to TDK numbers and are still considered "successful".
Gabe
Gabe - 11/16/2010, 10:57 PM
Batman Begins and The Dark Knight achieved a level of success rarely seen not only in CBMs, but in cinematic history. With all the elements in place save for Heath Ledger and our own self-inflated expectations, it's pretty safe to say that Christopher Nolan can do it again.

Besides the way he set up the story in TDK, he could focus the entire movie on becoming the hero Gotham deserves and his situation with the Gotham Police Department.

Curmudgeon
Curmudgeon - 11/16/2010, 11:01 PM
1. The Dark Knight was the last superhero flick released in a summer that had Iron Man, the Incredible Hulk, Hancock, and Hellboy 2. "Too many superhero movies" is not going to be the thing that sinks this ship.

2. THIS is the thing that could sink the ship. That people are expecting it to be the greatest movie ever-- to be the unsinkable ship.

But fans are fickle... one bad sequel and they suddenly turn to saying that they never reeeally liked the last one anyways. *cough*Spider-Man*cough*

And remember, TDK's success was not just from single viewings or word-of-mouth audiences, but rather from repeat viewings. People saw it multiple times, upping it's box office ever higher.

If they don't feel the film is AS awesome as TDK, or if they feel that it's much much worse, they're not going back to see it again.

3. This... isn't even a concern for whether the film succeeds or fails.
ThunderCougarFalconBird
ThunderCougarFalconBird - 11/17/2010, 12:45 AM
1 - People will not be bored of CBM's if the movies are handled correctly. There is an almost infinite amount of material to keep these movies fresh.

2 - I do agree with the “Expectations factor” and this is why I have always said Riddler will not be in the movie (even before it was confirmed). Nolan knows that including a villain everyone is talking about will only add pressure.

3 - Anyone who thinks Heaths Joker (as good as it was) can't be topped is either narrow minded, short sighted or enjoys the band wagon a little too much.
supermaustify
supermaustify - 11/17/2010, 4:07 AM
psshh this article is full of shit.. I'm gonna see this movie like 5 times when its in the theater.. and you dont know for sure that the Villain is not gonna match the Joker, the villain could very well outdue the joker in every way
Boekelaar
Boekelaar - 11/17/2010, 4:34 AM
I think it'll do fine at the box office, maybe not a Billion but probably higher than Batman Begins. If any of the films out of this trilogy were to bomb it would have been Batman Begins. What with a no name director, a fairly no name lead actor annnd the last Batman before it being Batman and Robin. I'm sure it'll be all sweet what with "From the director of the Dark Night and Inception" on the poster. People could be sick of CBMs however Batman has always been around and even the shitty films did good business.
CorndogBurglar
CorndogBurglar - 11/17/2010, 5:29 AM
no offense, but are you out of your mind? this movie will be huge...
supermaustify
supermaustify - 11/17/2010, 6:35 AM
psshh this article is full of shit.. I'm gonna see this movie like 5 times when its in the theater.. and you dont know for sure that the Villain is not gonna match the Joker, the villain could very well outdue the joker in every way
Sturmpionier
Sturmpionier - 11/17/2010, 7:16 AM
I could have saved you a lot of space on this (speculative) article.

Reasons why it might fail:
It's not a good movie.

Reasons why it might succeed:
It is a good movie.

Of course, that article would work for every single movie that has yet to made.
Hellothere
Hellothere - 11/17/2010, 8:27 AM
The only reason all these comic book movies are coming out is because of batman begins and the dark knight. There really have been no other comic book movies that can touch these two films, so I'm going to have to say you're dumb for thinking people are going to be tired of these films. It's just my opinion, however. He has his brother and goyer helping him again too. This movie will be epic, I can feel it.
CorndogBurglar
CorndogBurglar - 11/17/2010, 9:58 AM
@ hellothere

"so I'm going to have to say you're dumb for thinking people are going to be tired of these films"

I'm going to have to say you're dumb for thinking these CBMs are all coming out because of Batman begins. NONE of these movies would be coming out if Spiderman and X-men didn't do so good in 2000.
supermaustify
supermaustify - 11/17/2010, 11:30 AM
I think the "people might be tired of CBMs by then" excuse would only affect every other CBM except for TDKR
Bosola
Bosola - 11/17/2010, 11:48 AM
It's Nolan, it's Batman. Have a little faith dude.
BlendAshtey
BlendAshtey - 11/17/2010, 1:08 PM
As a massive TDK fan I have to say that this is a very good article outlining the risks Nolan faces. Very realistic. Some shocking comments here.

Some people believe Heath Ledger's Joker can be topped? The performance cannot be equaled, let alone topped.
TheDarqueOne
TheDarqueOne - 11/17/2010, 2:23 PM
First kudos for having the guts to even post this. But if you are going to make such a claim on a place like CBM you need a LOT more supporting evidence.

The article does have a point both on Expectations and the Last movie in a Trilogy. But if you are talking box office as the measure of success then most #3 are successful.

The movie will almost certainly do well. Blockbuster of the Season? Maybe not but there can only be a few of those each year anyway.

trytan
trytan - 11/18/2010, 2:08 PM
First off I am the biggest Batman fan and a very big Nolan fan, TDK is my favorite movie of all time, with that said in response to your article I say, do I think it will out gross TDK? Probably not but do I think it will fail? No. I think it will gorss a lot and be a great film, like Incepton but I don't think It'll get to TDK level in earnings. All in all I think it's safe to say that with Nolan, we will have the first perfect CBM trilogy.
XxBLACKMASKxX
XxBLACKMASKxX - 11/18/2010, 6:57 PM
Marvel movies are crap... the public loves DC and BATMAN!!!!
EJSchu
EJSchu - 11/21/2010, 5:38 PM
Alright, reasons why this article is crap:
A) Its advertising budget will be huge. WB will make sure people know about it.
B) As many have said, it is a sequel to one of the most successful films of all time. There will be interest, especially among those who normally don't see comic book movies.
C) Even if there is comic book movie fatigue in the summer of 2012, which is a very big if, TDKR will have considerable immunity, not only because of the success of its predecessor, but also because many people who aren't normally comic book movie enthusiasts will be intrigued. Remember, part of The Dark Knight's appeal was that it rose above the typical confines of the genre.

Aside from submitting an article based on a naive notion and backed up by arguments that are weak at best, this writer could stand to proofread a little. This 'article' is ridden with so many grammatical mistakes, what little credibility it might have is completely lost.
adamdusza
adamdusza - 11/21/2010, 6:59 PM
Your argument makes no sense. People hated Transformers 2, X3, Spider-Man 3(tho I love all those movies) yet they all made a crap load of money, especially Transformers 2
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