Forecast of worldwide gross for CBMs of 2011

Forecast of worldwide gross for CBMs of 2011

Here's the predicted gross of all your favourite CBMs this year according to Box Office Mojo. Take a look the results may surprise you.

By DONNMARVEL - May 31, 2011 02:05 AM EST
Filed Under: Other
Source: boxofficemojo.com

Below are excerpts from the site to check out the article follow this links. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3156&p=.htm , http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3161&p=.htm

Note: some on the list aren't necessarily CBMs but I have seen a lot of stuff bout them on this site.

For those of you who can't be bothered to read the whole thing I have calculated the worldwide gross at the bottom of the page.

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows (Part Two) (July 15) - $350 million domestically and $710 million from foriegn take. Finally, the drawn-out battle between Harry Potter and Lord Voldemort comes to an end, but the tepid-by-franchise-standards showing of the penultimate Potter adds an air of concern. Deathly Hallows Part Two marks Potter's first foray in the 3D illusion, and 3D might be the only way to see it for many people as the trailer closes with this ominous line: "Complete the journey in 3D. 2D in select theaters." Bottom Line: It would be disappointing if this isn't the highest-grossing Potter yet, though its attendance is likely to rank much lower.

Transformers: Dark of the Moon (July 1)—$320 million domestically and $460 million from foriegn take. This looks like more of the same, featuring more space discovery of the Transformers and yet another long-lost Transformer. The promise of the Decepticons finally taking over the world and the slickness of the slo-mo robo-spectacle seem to be the movie's stand-out features. More of the same after a mixed reaction to predecessor Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen ($402.1 million) may not cut it this time. Sure, director Michael Bay and company have publicly tried to make amends for Revenge of the Fallen, saying they'll get it right this time, and there's the addition of 3D, but so what? That doesn't mean much to audiences: it's how they felt about the last movie, combined with how the new movie looks. Bottom Line: Running on franchise fumes could get this sucker past $300 million.


Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (May 20) - $230 million domestically and $610 million from foriegn take. With its $90.2 million opening weekend, this supernatural swashbuckler fell short of the forecast and, more importantly, fell far short of the last two Pirates movies, so its projected final tally was downgraded from $270 million. After the damage done by At World's End and Dead Man's Chest and natural franchise fatigue, On Stranger Tides was destined to gross less than its predecessors. Exacerbating matters was how On Stranger Tides looked like just another Pirates movie and lacked spectacle in its ads. Bottom Line: The "threequel"-to-"fourquel" drop-off looks like it will be similar to the fall from Shrek the Third to Shrek Forever After.

Captain America: The First Avenger (July 22) - $200 million domestically and $270 million from foriegn take. Captain America is the most mainstream superhero making a big screen debut this summer, giving this movie an advantage over Thor and Green Lantern. The marketing has taken great pains to make the character relatable, focusing on his origin as a physically-weak-but-earnest soldier, but, if Captain America is just a buffed-out super soldier, then the wow factor will be muted. As well-known as the character is, his powers have always been unclear to the uninitiated. But if the movie's marketing is sufficiently rip-roaring as the release approaches, this could be the retro adventure of choice over Cowboys & Aliens. Bottom Line: An above average superhero should yield above average grosses.

Thor (May 6) - $180 million domestically and $290 million from foriegn take. Though it opened in the shadow of Fast Five, this Marvel Comics adaptation still cashed in on its early summer advantage, debuting as forecasted, and it held relatively well in its second weekend. Bottom Line: Very good showing for a B-list superhero.




Super 8 (June 10) - $180 million domestically and $190 million from foriegn take.
J.J. Abrams is playing coy again, like he did with Cloverfield and his television series, and, this time, the effect is not only Spielbergian (obviously) but prime Shyamalanian. Super 8's being marketed as a monster movie in the sense-of-wonder style of Steven Spielberg's '70s and '80s movies, only without providing a glimpse of the monster. "It has escaped. It has a plan. On June 10, find out why it's here," the television ads beckon, showing eye-catching, real-world effects, such as a car twirling in the air. It's good to see a clearer picture forming, because previous ads were too mysterious, going for a nostalgic mood via the theme music from Cocoon and relying too much on Abrams' and Spielberg's names. But, after all that build-up, Super 8 would be a letdown if it's just a kid-friendly Cloverfield in a small town. Like an M. Night Shyamalan movie, Super 8's long-term success hinges on how audiences react once the secrets are revealed, but a large opening weekend should be in store. Bottom Line: Instead of straight-shooting, Abrams and company are getting everyone ginned up to find out what "it" is and what's going on. So the pressure's on for Super 8 to deliver the goods more so than any other movie this summer. If it does deliver, boy, look out. It'll be a contender.

X-Men: First Class (June 3) - $155 million domestically and $210 million from foriegn take.
Prequels may be the bee's knees in the comic book world, but they're trying the patience of the mainstream. They often amount to fanboy fantasias, because, if these back stories were so essential in the first place, then that's where the franchises should have started. The story needs to progress, not regress. First Class looks like it's mining territory that was sufficiently covered in the previous movies, namely the back stories and conflicting views of Professor X and Magneto. Thankfully, First Class is not as redundant as X-Men Origins: Wolverine, which was a franchise low in attendance, but it does lack the star of the series, Wolverine. First Class's slick, new direction may be enough to sustain some interest after the mixed viewer reactions to Wolverine and X-Men: The Last Stand. Bottom Line: Outside of serious X-Men fans, why should anyone care? It would be surprising if this is as big as its predecessors.

Green Lantern (June 17) - $130 million domestically and $225 million from foriegn take.
Every week a new Green Lantern trailer seems to spring up, which reeks of desperation. With the movie's makers perhaps fearing a total fanboy affair, the latest trailer finally, if unsubtly, explains some of what the bejesus is going on via narration (at the expense of Ryan Reynolds' lead character), but this movie still looks like goofy sci-fi fantasy mumbo jumbo, riffing on Star Wars with its "force" talk and computer-generated alien characters. Green Lantern's power still isn't clear (apparently he can conjure whatever he wills?), and he seems to lack vulnerability. A clear, strong villain is also absent (beyond an amorphous "yellow" force), and that's a key ingredient to superhero movie success. Green Lantern seems most reminiscent of Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer, only less grounded. Green Lantern may be big in the DC Comics universe, but he's not mainstream, and it can't help to have The Green Hornet released recently. Reynolds' character looks like an attempt to duplicate Robert Downey, Jr.'s from Iron Man with a dash of Superman. Warner Bros.' sheer force of will may drum up a decent sampling. Bottom Line: Green Lantern's light doesn't seem bright enough.

Rise of the Planet of the Apes (August 5) - $125 million domestically and $205 million from foriegn take.
Looks like I, Robot with apes instead of robots and without a star (James Franco has none of Will Smith's drawing power). Demonstrating the franchise's might, Planet of the Apes (2001) had a massive debut almost exactly ten years earlier, and it ended its front-loaded run with the equiivalent of $250 million adjusted for ticket-price inflation.Bottom Line: Looks thrilling enough to score solid numbers and could evolve into something greater depending how its marketing pans out.

Cowboys & Aliens (July 29) - $95 million domestically and $140 million from foriegn take.
On paper, an action spectacle directed by Jon Favreau (Iron Man), starring Daniel Craig (James Bond) and Harrison Ford (Indiana Jones/Han Solo) and executive-produced by Steven Spielberg dazzles. But Cowboys & Aliens seems to dig a deeper grave with each ad. Sure, it looks more polished than Green Lantern, but the ads continually reinforce a sense that Cowboys & Aliens is a half-baked Western and a half-baked alien-invasion movie shoe-horned together. And that doesn't add up to a complete movie. The movie's title, which is a riff on "cowboys and indians," is catchy, but it may have a Snakes on a Plane effect: title tells all, no need to see the movie.Still, there's time to improve, if the movie has the goods. Perhaps as a nod to its current standing, the latest commercial features the line "We have one advantage. They underestimate you." Bottom Line: If this overcomes the odds, look for Cops & Robots next summer.


FORECAST (worldwide gross)

1. Harry Potter 8 - $1.06 Billion
2. Pirates of the Caribbean - $840 million
3. Transformers 3 - $780 million
4. Captain America - $470 million
5. Thor - $470 million
6. Super 8 - $370 million
7. X-men - $365 million
8. Green Lantern - $355 million
9. Rise of the Apes - $330 million
10.Cowboys & Aliens - $235 million
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DONNMARVEL
DONNMARVEL - 5/31/2011, 3:37 AM
@patrickbateman47 thanx but it's not my opinion i saw the article on boxofficemojo you can follow the links at the top of the page to see more.
DONNMARVEL
DONNMARVEL - 5/31/2011, 3:46 AM
thanx
DONNMARVEL
DONNMARVEL - 5/31/2011, 3:53 AM
@jolt17 i don't think you should criticize them too harshly about not knowing green lantern remember this is their prediction and green lantern is the first in a possible series and a second movie could gross icredibly high just look at Batman, batman begins grossed 372 million while it's seqeul the dark knight grossed over one billion
Jolt17
Jolt17 - 5/31/2011, 3:57 AM
Yes? And those guys deff doesn't know Green Lantern before!

Well I'm a fan, but to be fair it has won the most anticipated movie of 2011!

Even if it's not the best, it won't be that low.

THOR is already $411 besides (since when it's a B-lister?), First Class will make good too, it's the X-Men people in common know.

The only accurate thing is POTTER, it seems will rule this summer and that's pretty bad for me lol.

Cool find tho!

; )

P.S. It will be tough for CAP, but I hope it beats POTTER if able!
Jolt17
Jolt17 - 5/31/2011, 3:59 AM
@DONN I didn't criticize them...well not really lol!

But there are some facts that people are anticipating it quite well for now, so they are not really right!

Not blaming them to not knowing GL but they should be more objective imo!

; )
DONNMARVEL
DONNMARVEL - 5/31/2011, 4:18 AM
@jolt17 fair enough. i just hope that if green lantern does well, deadpool is made before a sequel
shahrazstate
shahrazstate - 5/31/2011, 4:57 AM
The results being forcasted for Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, and Green Lantern are very inaccurate.
Jolt17
Jolt17 - 5/31/2011, 5:50 AM
@DONN yep!

; D
CBMfan001
CBMfan001 - 5/31/2011, 6:47 AM
this was taken from box office mojo forecasts and I sincerely hope it won't be true for green lantern,I hope it does well than $ 130 mil (hopefully in the $180 mil-$190 mil range)so that we can have more DC movies at least the likes of flash and aquaman.even green lantern there is so much more to tell and to show.

but I'm pumped up for GL based on the trailers and looks like a big fun action film :)



JackBauer
JackBauer - 5/31/2011, 7:26 AM
I love stuff like this. There's going to be a lot of butthurt DC fanboys though ;) Only time will tell. You should do a follow up after all the films are finished in the theaters and compare.
Timbolia
Timbolia - 5/31/2011, 10:21 AM
I have to say I think this is way under on Xmen. It is getting great reviews and that will make a difference.I had no desire to see it till last week. I also think GL will be bigger than that, I think it will be in the top 3 of the summer (maybe4, damn transformers crap) and out of the blue last night my wife said she wants to see Cowboys and Aliens, so I think the marketing might be crossing over. She also wants to see GL or at least Renolds with his shirt off. I think that might actually be a factor in it's take.
vermillion
vermillion - 5/31/2011, 10:37 AM
Box Office Mojo has been slamming GL for awhile now it seems, so I'm not shocked by their prediction.

Bout 17 days away 'til GL comes out!
OnLeatherWings
OnLeatherWings - 5/31/2011, 10:39 AM
sounds like a bunch of bull shit to me. already wrong with the pirates forecast, i think everyone saw that one coming but this guy. transformers will under perform well, lets face it, we all know what a hack Michael bay is (i did enjoy the first transformers movie, most likely because it was new and exciting and had a decent script, second one was neither). Apes will under perform. Cowboys and Aliens will be decent and most likely be a type of cult classic. I feel Cap is being over estimated as well, not sure why but prob because its towards the end of the summer (thinking somewhere round the 160 170 mark) GL will get decent results much like Thor and get enough for a sequel (Most excited for GL!!!) X Men will be a late bloomer but i think will perform as well as the rest of the Superhero movies(same people will see all 4 lol) Super 8 deserves better but the forecast sounds right. and of course Potter will blow all away! ( also very excited for!).....

welp.... there's my 2 cents lol. how i feel anyways
OnLeatherWings
OnLeatherWings - 5/31/2011, 10:41 AM
unfortunately the first GL trailer will haunt us all and will affect the movies results i feel. and agreed that this guy has it our for GL. probably a marvel fan thats never read a comic.
LordHuck
LordHuck - 5/31/2011, 11:29 AM
@PlasticMan

You Know “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part one” made 954 million so far right?

And that three other Harry Potter films have also made well over 900 million with the highest film grossing 974 million?


It’s totally plausible that the final film in the series will gross over 1 billion.
_______________________________________________________

With the couple dozen reviews that I have read for X-men 1st class I would not be surprised to see that film out gross Thor and Captain America.

Rexgabe
Rexgabe - 5/31/2011, 11:37 AM
I think only their Cowboys & Aliens prediction is spot on. Harry Potter will come close too.
redlion
redlion - 5/31/2011, 11:40 AM
Hmmm....interesting article. I have to say I agree with a lot of it. Taking off the fanboy glasses for a minute and trying to be objective, the guy makes some valid points. A lot of us love the GL stuff but we don't know what the GA is going to think.
DONNMARVEL
DONNMARVEL - 5/31/2011, 11:51 AM
redlion@ spot on, that's exactly it plus the way they are marketed to the general audience contributes largely to the final gross.
plasticman
plasticman - 5/31/2011, 12:43 PM
@ LordHuck- It's all about money and power with you "Lords," isn't it? WHY DID THEY HAVE TO MAKE A HARRY POTTER COMIC BOOK!!!!????? If they hadn't I'd sit here all day long and complain about the inclusion of this fairy tale with all the lore that is actual comic book characters.
JonF
JonF - 5/31/2011, 1:22 PM
Oh, so now Thor's b-list too? Ha! Who are the non-comic reading idiots that write this stuff?!?
sonofsamadams
sonofsamadams - 5/31/2011, 2:01 PM
Box office Mojo is already wrong with a few of them on this list, and i highly doubt GL will engross as low as 130 million. It'll get more. Peter Travers from rolling stones says he has faith in it. AND that's sayin' somethin.
BorisSenna
BorisSenna - 5/31/2011, 3:05 PM
Guys, you really gotta take it easy with the Green Lantern prediction.

Boxofficemojo has a good point when they say that the promotion up to the last minute marker was entirely turned inwards to the die-hard fans. And that there's been little success in explaining to the general public what the movie is really about. AND the effects look spotty still. To me, Kilowog looks more like "Hulk" than "The Incredible Hulk".

Warner decided to wait till they'd put money in the movie's marketing and that's gonna cost'em. And a really, really good way to measure just how much a movie is anticipated check out RottenTomatos' "I Want To See It" numbers. GL rates lower than Captain American and X-Men First Class on that.

Also, to contextualize, this article was published after Thor had a meteoric fall in sales on its third weekend and Pirates underperformed in the US, even though it broke records overseas. So the mood of the market was very pessimistic.
BorisSenna
BorisSenna - 5/31/2011, 3:08 PM
And to the people who gripe that they call Thor and Green Lantern B-List, remember they said the same thing about Iron Man.
lxgnzls1
lxgnzls1 - 6/1/2011, 10:48 AM
i call b.s.
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