Variety reports that Morbius is currently tracking to open with $40 million - $50 million at the North American box office this weekend. Sony Pictures is looking to temper expectations with a $33 million prediction, and these numbers are in line with Birds of Prey's debut (which went on to become something of a box office disappointment for Warner Bros. when it was released in 2020).
An opening around the $30 million mark would not be great news for Sony or its plans to create a shared universe inhabited by Spider-Man's supporting characters (and no Spider-Man).
Last year, Venom: Let There Be Carnage earned $90 million during its domestic opening weekend. Spider-Man: No Way Home, meanwhile, was in a league of its own with $260 million. Sony spent around $75 million on Morbius before marketing, so even a modest return at the worldwide box office could be enough to help the studio at least break even or make a small profit.
Either way, this probably isn't going to be the opening chapter of a new franchise. We could see Michael Morbius again, of course, and even a flop is unlikely to change Sony's plans for its Marvel Universe. It will be interesting to see what impact the reaction from critics has on these box office numbers, as the review embargo lifts tonight and a "Rotten" score can sometimes kill a new blockbuster.
Early reactions to Morbius haven't been kind, and the Living Vampire being a C-List character means there's not much recognition with casual fans of the Marvel Universe.
Check out our interview with Morbius star Jared Leto in the player below: