It's way too soon to make predictions about The Flash being a box office flop, but if the latest tracking data is any indication, it won't be a runaway hit either. With tickets on sale and just a couple of weeks to go before it races into theaters, $70 million estimates are not good.
This is a movie that's been through at least two or three rounds of reshoots, with the latest coming shortly after the formation of DC Studios. Henry Cavill was written out of the DCEU in an early cut, restored thanks to Black Adam, and then taken out again by James Gunn and Peter Safran.
To call it troubled would be an understatement, though that adjective also fits lead star Ezra Miller. All of this and more have contributed to what looks set to be a dismal opening weekend, and we're now exploring what's led to tracking going from $140 million to half of that.
You can read our in-depth breakdown by clicking on the "Next" button below.
6. Batman's Return Isn't That Big Of A Deal
Miller's very public issues have likely contributed to this, but there's no denying that Michael Keaton's Batman has been at the forefront of The Flash's marketing campaign as much as, if not more than, the Scarlet Speedster himself.
Hollywood is playing into nostalgia in a big way at the moment. However, five different actors since played Batman on the big screen, and it's now been more than three decades since Keaton last suited up.
His Batman is undeniably iconic, but the actor isn't a box office draw and his return likely means the most to an age group (40+, a.k.a. people with kids) that doesn't necessarily have the time or inclination to see a movie during its opening weekend. Had this been Christian Bale, it may have been a different story.
5. There's A Lot Of Competition
The Flash's seemingly endless release date delays will hurt this movie as much as they did Shazam! Fury of the Gods, but June is by no means a bad month to drop it in theaters. However, there's still some backlog from the pandemic rolling out, and the DC Comics adaptation finds itself surrounded by competition.
Not only does it have to follow Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and Transformers: Rise of the Beasts, but The Flash goes head-to-head with Pixar's Elemental during its opening weekend.
That's a movie which most parents will want to take their children to, especially if they're aware of The Flash's troubled lead star. And, to go back to our previous point, many younger audience members are unlikely to know who Keaton's Batman is. That makes the big reveal in the trailers mostly meaningless to a huge audience.
4. The Movie Doesn't Matter
Once upon a time, plans called for The Flash to create a new DC Extended Universe. Michael Keaton would replace Ben Affleck as Batman, appearing in Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, Batgirl, and Batman Beyond. Supergirl, meanwhile, was set to take the place of Henry Cavill's Superman (at least initially).
We know from plot breakdowns out of recent screenings that the movie's ending has been changed and it no longer sets up the DCEU...or the new DCU, for that matter. It could be retconned into the latter's creation down the line, but there's really no point.
As a result, The Flash is yet another movie from a shared world that will cease to exist this December. For fans keen to see how each movie sets up the next big story, that makes this story largely meaningless and the DC Studios slate reveal in January all but confirmed these 2023 projects don't matter.
3. The DCEU Is Damaged Beyond Repair
The DCEU has delivered more box office flops and critical disappointments than it has hit movies, and audiences have grown tired of the franchise, as a result. It sucks for DC fans and we can appreciate that even the worst of these titles have their fair share of supporters, but this shared world is running on fumes.
There is an element of superhero fatigue setting in, and not even Marvel Studios - who could once do no wrong while delivering even the most mediocre of movies - now finds itself struggling more than ever before.
To causal moviegoers, The Flash is a C-List superhero who has only appeared in movies (Suicide Squad, Batman v Superman, and Justice League) the majority hated. Coming off those and recent flops like Black Adam and the Shazam! sequel, why would they want to endure what they'll assume is another crummy two hours?
2. Is Anyone Buying The Social Media Reactions?
Warner Bros. approach to marketing The Flash has been unique, to say the least. While fans could already find a detailed plot leak from test screenings, its CinemaCon debut in April meant spoilers were rife months before its official release, giving many the chance to satisfy their curiosity without buying a ticket.
Then, there are the social media reactions. It's not everyone, but there are critics out there who know that saying the right thing in those wins them the favour of studios and guarantees a place in TV spots. We also can't forget the people who are just psyched to see a movie early.
The point is, fans have grown increasingly sceptical of glowing reactions, especially when reviews so often differ. Endorsements from David Zaslav, James Gunn, Tom Cruise, and Stephen King also don't ring true and come across like a concerted effort to build hype for a release that's good, but not that good.
1. Ezra Miller
You don't need us to recap Ezra Miller's many indiscretions at this point but suffice it to say that if even half of what the actor is accused of is true, then they're a heinous individual. Fans want to look up to superheroes, and The Flash's lead is anything but inspirational.
Even looking beyond the disturbing headlines, Miller is not a box office draw. While by no means their fault, each of the DC movies they've appeared in has bombed in one way or the other. The same can be said for Fantastic Beasts and, put bluntly, Miller isn't an actor who sells tickets.
Throw in the fact many DC fans have argued from the start that they were miscast as Barry Allen and there's little in the way of goodwill here. As a result, all The Flash has going for it is the fact it's another superhero movie that many people at this point have just become conditioned to see.