As we first reported on SFFGazette.com, The Mandalorian and Grogu will face tougher-than-expected competition this weekend, as A24's horror movie Backrooms may open at #1 with an estimated $40 million to $45 million.
Helmed by YouTuber Kane Parsons, the movie follows in the footsteps of Curry Barker's Obsession, which has so far grossed a massive $84.6 million after two weeks in theaters. Markiplier's Iron Lung was another surprise success story, as it made $50 million on a $3 million budget.
This would be a record-breaking haul for an A24 movie, topping Civil War's $25.5 million debut in 2024. Backrooms only cost $10 million to produce, and it looks set to put Parsons on the map.
Back to a Galaxy Far, Far Away, and The Mandalorian and Grogu is aiming for a $40 million second weekend, a drop of 50%. That's a strong, fairly standard hold, which suggests positive word of mouth has made a difference. While the movie's detractors have framed its $98 million Memorial Day weekend debut as some kind of disaster, we'd expect a 60+% decline if it were truly on the ropes.
For comparison's sake, 2018's Solo: A Star Wars Story—which had a similar start to Jon Favreau's big screen follow-up to The Mandalorian–had a massive 65% drop during its second weekend. A 50% drop (from the $81 million it grossed over the traditional three-day frame) bodes well, but international takings will still be key.
With a potential $40+ million haul during its second weekend, the first Star Wars movie since 2019 could fend off Backrooms to retain #1. Right now, though, Parsons's buzzy feature debut currently has the advantage.
The Breadwinner and Pressure also open wide this weekend, but neither is expected to pose much of a problem for Backrooms, The Mandalorian and Grogu, and Obsession.
"The Mandalorian and Grogu is a fun, pulpy reminder that Star Wars doesn’t need to grow up; it just needs to be entertaining," we said in our review. "Jon Favreau's action-packed love letter delivers exactly the crowd-pleasing adventure fans have been craving."
In The Mandalorian and Grogu, the evil Empire has fallen, and Imperial warlords remain scattered throughout the galaxy. As the fledgling New Republic works to protect everything the Rebellion fought for, they have enlisted the help of legendary Mandalorian bounty hunter Din Djarin (Pedro Pascal) and his young apprentice Grogu.
Directed by Jon Favreau, the movie also stars Sigourney Weaver and Jeremy Allen White. It's produced by Jon Favreau, Kathleen Kennedy, Dave Filoni, and Ian Bryce, with music composed by Ludwig Göransson.
The Mandalorian and Grogu is now playing in theaters.