Ever since COVID, predicting what a movie will make at the domestic box office has become increasingly difficult. Many expected hits have flopped, while plenty of titles have massively exceeded expectations.
In the case of Venom: The Last Dance, it looks set to fall somewhere in the middle despite Venom and Venom: Let There Be Carnage being surprise hits in 2018 and 2021, respectively.
Current estimations from Deadline point to a $21 million Friday (including $8.5 million from Thursday previews) for an opening weekend somewhere between $50 million - $55 million. That's a pretty noteworthy drop from those initial $65 million expectations.
In better news for Sony, Venom: The Last Dance is exceeding expectations overseas, in no small part thanks to China.
The trade suggests that the L.A. Dodgers' first battle in 43 years with the New York Yankees in the World Series is a major contributing factor. It's also theorised that Sony Pictures will be looking for $450 million - $500 million worldwide to reach profitability.
This is no Joker: Folie à Deux, however, as the studio remains bullish that Venom: The Last Dance can reach $180 million this weekend (in contrast, the Joker sequel only reached $115 million before falling off a cliff).
Something else that won't help matters is a B- CinemaScore; Venom and Venom: Let There Be Carnage each received a B+. This is slightly better than Morbius and Madame Web's C+ but puts it on par with Hellboy (2004), Dark Phoenix, and this year's version of The Crow.
UPDATE: It's now being reported that Venom: The Last Dance earned $22 million on Friday and is looking at a $52 million opening weekend, a sharp decline from Venom's $80.3 million and Venom: Let There Be Carnage's $90 million.
"The most cinematic, monumental Venom movie to date, we said in our recent review of the movie, "The Last Dance leaves room for improvement but by upping the stakes and allowing Eddie and Venom to bond, it’s epic and heartfelt enough to leave us hoping this is far from Tom Hardy’s last whirl as the Lethal Protector."
In Venom: The Last Dance, Tom Hardy returns as Venom, one of Marvel's greatest and most complex characters, for the final film in the trilogy. Eddie and Venom are on the run. Hunted by both of their worlds and with the net closing in, the duo are forced into a devastating decision that will bring the curtains down on Venom and Eddie's last dance.
The movie stars Tom Hardy, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Juno Temple, Peggy Lu, Alanna Ubach, Stephen Graham, and Rhys Ifans. Kelly Marcel directs from a screenplay she wrote, based on a story by Hardy and Marcel. The film is produced by Avi Arad, Matt Tolmach, Amy Pascal, Kelly Marcel, Tom Hardy and Hutch Parker.
Venom: The Last Dance is now playing in theaters.