Raise your hand if you honestly believe "Man of Steel 2" and "Captain America 3" are both opening on May 6, 2016.
Ever since Warner Bros parked their MoS sequel across the street from Marvel, fans have been going at it over the potential heavyweight bout. While it's great for debate, let's be realistic. We have a better chance of seeing Mayweather vs Pacquiao.
The obvious reason is money. No secret there. Both films would take away from the other's earnings. So here's my prediction - Warner Bros. moves up a month to early April. Here's why.
THE RESPONSE TO MAN OF STEEL
It should've made more. But not for the reasons usually argued. Only four non-sequel films have ever opened to $100M+.
Spider-Man (2002) - $114,844,116
Alice In Wonderland (2010) - $116,619,362
The Hunger Games (2012) - $152,535,747
Man of Steel (2013) - $116,619,362
"Games" went on to gross nearly $700M, "Spider-Man" over $800M, while "Wonderland" topped $1 Billion. With that huge an opening, from a numbers standpoint, MoS should've made more. The fact that it didn't is a testament to how audiences felt about the film.
And before anyone brings up the "competition" excuse, understand that hurts MoS' case rather than helps it. It's basically saying, when audiences were given the choice to either watch "Man of Steel" again or see Brad Pitt vs Zombies and a Sandra Bullock-Melissa McCarthy team up, they chose the latter.
That's something Warner Bros. should be looking at and not just the $668M their $225M film brought in. And maybe they were. They turned so many people off with part one it could lead to less interest in a sequel. But add Batman and Wonder Woman to it and MoS2 stands a better chance.
The fact is, Warner Bros. is already dealing with a severely divided fanbase. There are too many skeptics. These are people who contributed to that $116M opening. The studio needs a good month to earn that audience back. And, of course, make money.
MARVEL IS ON A ROLL
Marvel Studios changed the game when it comes to comic book and superhero movies. Other studios are looking for ways to manufacture their own cinematic universes. This genre is Marvel's yard thanks to the brand they've built over the last six years.
That's what Warner Bros' "Man of Steel 2" is up against. They're making the follow up to arguably the most polarizing film in recent memory.
And, frankly, seeing Superman, Batman and Wonder Woman on the screen for the first time ever won't be enough. Some fans believe that alone is reason for Marvel to pack their bags but, in truth, it's just a novelty. Well, what do we have after that novelty wears off?
The news coming out of Warner so far about the sequel hasn't done anything to silence naysayers. If anything, Snyder & Co. have added fuel to the fire. Casting Ben Affleck as Batman sparked outrage. Gal Gadot as Wonder Woman sparked outrage. Jesse Eisenberg as Lex Luthor…yup, outrage.
Also, the same creative team behind the first film is back (Snyder, Goyer). Is there any reason we wouldn't be getting more of the same? "Argo's" Chris Terrio was brought on for a rewrite but who knows to what extent. Is it just a polish? Is it more than that?
Not to mention some are unhappy with the fact Batman and Wonder Woman are even in the film. Look passed the "first time ever" concept and you'll see, two years to go and MoS2 is already dividing fans even more.
Now consider this - in 2016 "Captain America 3" will be coming off of "The Avengers: Age of Ultron". We've seen the success "The Avengers" provided IM3, Thor 2 and now Cap 2. Audiences are invested in the Marvel brand and the stories they're telling.
Warner doesn't yet have the cachet to stand nose to nose with Marvel. Moving up a month to early April will give them space to establish their own brand. It would give them breathing room to build their own lineage…and, of course, make money.
THE DC UNIVERSE DEPENDS ON IT
Have you heard this before? "Warner Bros. stands to lose more than Marvel from a head-to-head weekend".
More accurately, the DC Universe stands to lose here. Warner doesn't rely on comic book properties like Marvel Studios does. Some have argued WB isn't completely invested in their DC properties when it comes to films. A big reason we haven't seen Aquaman, the Flash and so on.
It's "Warner Bros. Pictures" not "DC Studios".
So, Harry Potter took precedence over Wonder Woman. Now that the Potter series is done WB seems to be testing the waters with its DC characters. They're off to a shaky start and another underwhelming outing would most certainly spell the end for a DCCU in the immediate future.
We might get another Batman reboot but what chance does someone like Green Lantern have of seeing the big screen again? There's too much at stake for MoS2 to do MoS1 numbers. Possibly worse than MoS1, if WB stays put in May.
IN CLOSING
The bottom line is box office and moving up four weeks will provide Warner Bros. a whole month to pull in the numbers they're hoping for. Maybe even break some records. Because the real test is how "Man of Steel 2" performs after it opens. Falling to fifth place three weeks after being in first won't help.
The studio is building something from the ground up and needs all the room they can get. They shouldn't start challenging proven and established properties until they have one themselves.
So far the only notable film scheduled for April 2016 is Universal's reboot for "The Mummy". Warner Bros. could own the entire month...Could.
Where do you stand? Who do you think will move? Sound off below and thanks for reading.