THUNDERBOLTS*'s Domestic Box Office Opening Weekend Update Revealed Along With The MCU Movie's Budget

THUNDERBOLTS*'s Domestic Box Office Opening Weekend Update Revealed Along With The MCU Movie's Budget

With the first reviews for Thunderbolts* now in, we have an update on what the movie is likely to open with in North America and details on how much it cost to produce and market. Read on for details...

By JoshWilding - Apr 30, 2025 10:04 AM EST
Filed Under: Thunderbolts
Source: Variety

Early opening weekend projections for Thunderbolts* suggested the movie could open to as little as $63 million. Following yesterday's glowing reviews for the latest MCU title, those have risen to an estimated $70 million - $75 million, according to Variety

As we reported yesterday evening, Thunderbolts* is still eyeing a global bow of somewhere between $160 million - $175 million. 

While this is a good start for the movie, it's on the softer side for a new Marvel Studios release. Captain America: Brave New World managed to open to $88 million amid negative reviews, and only that and three other post-pandemic MCU blockbusters have opened beneath $100 million.

Those are Eternals ($71 million), Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings ($75 million), and The Marvels ($46 million).

The Thunderbolts aren't a well-known group of characters to non-comic book fans, so perhaps Disney would have been wise to reveal the meaning of that asterisk in advance. If nothing else, it might have increased interest among casual viewers. 

This $75 million debut isn't all bad news, though; Thunderbolts* cost $180 million to produce and roughly $100 million to market, meaning it's on the cheaper end of MCU movies in terms of budget. 

The positive reviews should also translate to good word-of-mouth; if so, Thunderbolts* won't have the same disastrous second weekend drop of the last Captain America movie, for example. It will, however, have to contend with Ryan Coogler's Sinners taking a bite out of its debut as that's expected to make as much as $35 million in the U.S. this weekend.

As long as Thunderbolts* is a modest hit, it will put Marvel Studios in good standing heading into The Fantastic Four: First Steps later this summer and Avengers: Doomsday next May.

What will you be watching in theaters next weekend? 

In Thunderbolts*, Marvel Studios assembles an unconventional team of antiheroes - Yelena Belova, Bucky Barnes, Red Guardian, Ghost, Taskmaster and John Walker. After finding themselves ensnared in a death trap set by Valentina Allegra de Fontaine, these disillusioned castoffs must embark on a dangerous mission that will force them to confront the darkest corners of their pasts.

Will this dysfunctional group tear themselves apart, or find redemption and unite as something much more before it’s too late?

The cast of Thunderbolts* will be led by Florence Pugh as Yelena Boleva, Sebastian Stan as Bucky Barnes, David Harbour as Red Guardian, Wyatt Russell as U.S. Agent, Hannah John-Kamen as Ghost, Olga Kurylenko as Taskmaster, Julia Louis-Dreyfus as Valentina Allegra de Fontaine, and Lewis Pullman as "Bob."

Written by Eric Pearson, Lee Sung Jin, and Joanna Calo, and directed by Jake Schreier, Thunderbolts* is currently set to be released in theaters on May 2, 2025.

THUNDERBOLTS* Concept Art Reveals Alternate Costume Designs For Taskmaster And Ghost
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THUNDERBOLTS* Concept Art Reveals Alternate Costume Designs For Taskmaster And Ghost

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HagridsHole1
HagridsHole1 - 4/30/2025, 10:45 AM
I believe the ceiling for this will be about $460-520 million. Id be very happy for it to do more though. Seeing it tomorrow morning with some mates. Can't wait!
ShellHead
ShellHead - 4/30/2025, 10:52 AM
Positive word of mouth will keep this one moving at a good pace. Last weekend had four films above $20 mil in a weekend, so people are out there wanting to go to movies.

I think the last couple of MCU films had a low ceiling because reviews affected general audience interest. When word gets out that this one is pretty good and their best in a while, I think it could get north of 100 mil this weekend
TheVisionary25
TheVisionary25 - 4/30/2025, 10:53 AM
The lack of big competition (unless Final Destination surprises on the 16th) till MI on the 23rd should help this film if WOM continues to be positive about it…

Also I think it’s legs will depend on rewatchability aswell since that’s usually how movies make a lot of money I feel which hasn’t happened for most in awhile due to shortened streaming windows etc.

Anyway , I do hope the movie is successful alongside the positive reviews it’s gotten so far…

Most likely seeing it Sunday so can’t wait!!.

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ObserverIO
ObserverIO - 4/30/2025, 11:17 AM
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grendelthing
grendelthing - 4/30/2025, 11:39 AM
@ObserverIO -
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GeneralZod
GeneralZod - 4/30/2025, 11:32 AM
Repeat viewing is key to get this movie into $600MM+ territory. Hoping it gets there.
vectorsigma
vectorsigma - 4/30/2025, 12:03 PM
@GeneralZod - just watched it.

It was consistent with the reviews. I think the indie crowd would have enjoyed this too given their sensibilities.

In terms of repeat viewing i dont think it will have much. But let's see
GeneralZod
GeneralZod - 4/30/2025, 12:53 PM
@vectorsigma - Interesting. Would you say that Thunderbolts is the best "pure" MCU movie post-Endgame? By "pure", i exclude NWH (half Sony) and DP/W (all Fox legacy).
vectorsigma
vectorsigma - 4/30/2025, 1:13 PM
@GeneralZod - id say it is 2nd only to gotg3.
ObserverIO
ObserverIO - 4/30/2025, 3:35 PM
@vectorsigma - I get what you're saying, but it's not really indie is it? It's really a prime example of a cookie cutter, manufactured, soulless studio movie. I know the marketing has been selling it as something that it's not but I don't think the indie crowd are buying.
GeneralZod
GeneralZod - 4/30/2025, 4:05 PM
@vectorsigma - After the last four years of MCU frustration ... I'll take it.
vectorsigma
vectorsigma - 4/30/2025, 9:18 PM
@ObserverIO - yeah it is not indie, it is the usual marvel movie story that has been told before WITH indie sensibilities.

Imagine eeaao with a higher budget. The focus on depression, regret and loneliness within a superhero backdrop makes it a bit unique
vectorsigma
vectorsigma - 4/30/2025, 9:26 PM
@GeneralZod - yes, i am as frustrated as a lot of us here and imo this movie helps in making us care for them in Doomsday. I just hope F4 wont kill the momentum
Wahhvacado
Wahhvacado - 4/30/2025, 11:35 AM
Looking forward to it
theFUZZ008
theFUZZ008 - 4/30/2025, 11:42 AM
Florence Pugh or not, I don't care about this movie.
SATW42
SATW42 - 4/30/2025, 12:07 PM
@theFUZZ008 - thanks for stopping by to let us all know
SummersEssex
SummersEssex - 4/30/2025, 5:08 PM
@theFUZZ008 - boo to you.
vectorsigma
vectorsigma - 4/30/2025, 12:13 PM
If anyone's interested here are my quick opinions in the movie. Spoiler free

- nothing groundbreaking, think gotg with indie sensibilities.
- good to see it diesnt deal with world/multiversal ending events. Very small in scale and personal
- focuses on depression, regrets and loneliness, which is welcone for me. Although it seems the scrupt always try to say it oyt loud like a tgerapy session
- score by Son Lux ia great. He did eeaao if i remember correctly
- not sure how the void is in the comics, but it feels underwhelming here
- cast is great and pugh is a great choice to lead
- doomsday announcement is bad in a sense that it spoiled their fates
- post credits scene as most already know spoiled fates too
- overall, i like it. We get to know everyone very well in just 1 movie which is needed for doomsday
-
JacobsLadder
JacobsLadder - 4/30/2025, 12:49 PM
For the mathematically challenged out there, according to this story's numbers, with a total investment of $280 million ($180m + $100m) this movie has to make at least $560 million worldwide to break even. That's $150 million more than BNW, which opened to approximately $90 million domestically in its first weekend, more than the $70-80 million this is projected to make . Thunderbolts is facing a very uphill battle. If word-of-mouth is mediocre, this movie won't make $350 million.
ObserverIO
ObserverIO - 4/30/2025, 3:45 PM
@JacobsLadder - And when you look at how Deadpool & Wolverine (a $200M movie) didn't break even until it had made 4.65 times as much, the break even point for Thunderbolts (a movie made by the exact same studio at the exact same time) may be even higher.

$180M x 4.65 = $837M.

There is no way in hell this movie's making $837M. Like you say it probably won't even make $560M, the more traditional break even point.

Looks like another bomb for Marvel. I do think FF has a chance of making money though.
Rpendo
Rpendo - 4/30/2025, 4:02 PM
@ObserverIO - Deadpool and Wolverine likely made 100 million plus in product tie ins and sponsorships before it was even released. Plus merch. That shit saves these blockbuster movies.
NinnesMBC
NinnesMBC - 5/1/2025, 1:36 AM
@JacobsLadder - Except the word of mouth hasn't been mediocre at all so far.
JacobsLadder
JacobsLadder - 5/1/2025, 9:15 AM
@NinnesMBC - stick your finger in the air on Sunday and see where it's at. An MCU movie about mental health doesn't sound like a banger, but who knows
NinnesMBC
NinnesMBC - 5/1/2025, 3:28 PM
@JacobsLadder - I got a good feeling about the word of mouth right now.

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MarvelZombie616
MarvelZombie616 - 4/30/2025, 5:09 PM
Just saw Thunderbolts* in a theater in 3D and it was awesome.
Really believable human beings with super soldier powers in over their head and trying to do things right.
Lots of funny moments without dumb humor and good action scenes.
Very emotional.
Unusual for a Marvel movie.
9/10

I think this will overperform and definetly make more money than Craptain America 4.
vectorsigma
vectorsigma - 4/30/2025, 9:22 PM
@MarvelZombie616 - i liked it too but im just doubtful on repeat viewings. But let's see
NinnesMBC
NinnesMBC - 5/1/2025, 1:40 AM
Hey @JoshWildiing I think you have to update the box office proyections first in the morning, according to BoxOffice Pro it now has risen to $80M-$90M for the domestic box office weekend.

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Likely it means the worldwide box office could see an increasement if it's true.

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