Boxoffice.com Tracking Numbers for Thor and X-Men:First Class

Boxoffice.com Tracking Numbers for Thor and X-Men:First Class

Boxoffice.com has published tracking numbers for X-Men:First Class, joining numbers it already had for Thor, as well as Priest. Green Lantern tracking figures yet to be added. This was initially intended to be a news item but has evolved (or devolved) into an editorial of sorts.

Editorial Opinion
By jcrash - Apr 11, 2011 05:04 AM EST
Filed Under: X-Men
Source: www.boxoffice.com

X-Men: First Class numbers was just added to the long range forecast dated April 9, 2011 for the summer movie season over at Boxoffice.com . The site is predicting an opening weekend of $70M and a gross of $155M. I'm assuming these figures are for the North American market (i.e. Canada and U.S. only and excludes Mexico).

Also of note is that Thor was added to their long-range forecast dated March 12, 2011. Updated tracking numbers for that film, according to the site, suggests an opening and cumulative gross of $73M and $208M, respectively. Note that the earlier table listed Thor's projected opening weekend figure at $77M — 5% higher than the newer April 9 figure. It was at $77M up until the March 19 forecast and was downgraded to the $73M figure starting on the March 26 Forecast table, holding steady at that value through to their April 2 update. Whether these numbers are actual prediction changes or merely human error in copying numbers is not known. It's hard to imagine forecast numbers actually going down just as marketing is ramped-up as the release approaches.

Are these numbers reliable? That depends on your analysis.

On the March 12 table, Boxoffice.com projected a $22M opening weekend for Sucker Punch, and downgraded it to $19M on their March 19 report, 6 days before official release. Box Office Mojo lists Sucker Punch as having grossed $19M in its 3-day opening frame. This downgrade may be due to the bad reviews the film garnered right before release. It appears that in this case Boxoffice.com was spot on in its forecast.

Still, I wager that most CBM fans would think these opening and cumulative figures for both X-Men and Thor are a bit on the low side. I would expect XM:FC to have lower 3-day opening box-office than any of X2:X-Men United ($86M), X-Men: The Last Stand (103M), and X-Men Origins: Wolverine (85M) primarily for two reasons. First, it is a prequel with none of the returning cast members and only really retains 3 of the mainstay characters from the previous non-Origin ensemble movies that audiences are familiar with. Second, the Wolverine movie left such a bad taste in audiences' mouths that a lot of the would-be viewers are probably not going to want to see this installment on opening weekend lest they get burned yet again, electing instead to wait it out. The only saving grace for First Class so far is its mostly well-received domestic and international trailers that seem to give a fresh take on Marvel's merry mutants. So $70M may be a reasonable prediction.

The predicated cumulative total for XM:FC is also lower than even the actual cume for the first X-Men, which at $157M, is the lowest-grossing of the X-Men franchise to date. However, the first installment which was released in 2000 actually has an adjusted gross of $233M in terms of 2011 dollars, given an estimated ticket price inflation of almost 50%—from $5.39 in 2000 to $8.01 in 2011. In terms of estimated ticket sales therefore, it is actually the Wolverine installment that has sold the least amount of tickets, which means that Boxoffice.com is predicting that XM:FC will sell even less tickets than that 2009 installment of the X-Men franchise.

On the Thor front, there is good reason to believe that opening figures there may be under-estimated. History has shown that a movie like Thor tends to do better than predicted. Exhibits A and B are Spider-Man and Iron Man. Both were non-sequel Marvel movies that kicked-off the summer movie season, with the latter being the closer analogue since it was a film produced exclusively by Marvel Studios—just like Thor—and had probably just as much name recognition (or lack thereof) back then among general audiences as Thor does now. Spider-Man was slated to open in the $60M to $70M range but—as most everyone knows—opened to an unprecedented, ground-breaking $114M and proceeded to shatter every opening record in the books at the time. Similarly, Iron Man was forecasted to open in the $75M to $85M range, with distributor Paramount projecting a $65M to $70M debut, but instead it opened to a whopping $102M.

Boxoffice.com's predicted $208M cume for Thor is well below both Iron Man's predicted $260M (by EW.com) and actual $318M total. The disparity between EW's Iron Man prediction and the actual cume—at 21%--is glaring. It's Dark Knight prediction of $255M fared even worse being off by 109% from its $533M actual. Although, nobody could have really predicted that TDK's boxoffice numbers would be able to reach such stratospheric heights that far ahead of its release.

In this era of online ticket pre-sales and widespread online social networking, it is theoretically easier to gauge public anticipation of films ahead of time. Tracking figures and projections should solidify in the days before the films' openings as movie ticket e-tailers such as Fandango submit pre-sales figures, and as the twitterverse and facebook starts getting abuzz in anticipation. Are such predictors better today than their forebears in years past? Well, we'll know in a few weeks. That could be just around the corner to some, and eternity to others. So which movie will own the summer? Your guess is as good as mine. Get ready to place your bets.

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claybo4131
claybo4131 - 4/11/2011, 7:56 AM
I say Thor opens up to 100 million. Think about it, people got a tease at the end of Iron Man 2 for Thor, and that opened to what 120 or 130 million, so people who did not know who Thor was last year know who he is by now.

X Men First Class I think will open to maybe 40-50 million, not a lot of buzz around it really, mostly negative, plus no Wolverine, which is the cash cow of X Men
StrangerX
StrangerX - 4/11/2011, 8:51 AM
I agree with Claybo4131 with XMen not having wolverine there isn't much buzz surrounding the movie so i would downgrade to a low box office weekend. maybe 30-40. XMen may take the opening weekend box office, but with Super 8 coming out the following weekend the drop could be to 10-15 mill.


Thor has a significant advantage because not only is there a lot of buzz but if you look at the movies coming out that week as well there isn't much competing with it's opening. I would predict Thor opening with a 60-70 million$ opening weekend, and although Preist will be following it the next weeking I predict Thor taking that weekend as well with about 20 or more. Pirates of the Caribbean will def take away some of Thors Thunder the 3rd week.



What really is going to be bad is Green Lantern's opening. It's competing with kids movies like Mr Poppers Penguins and the following weekend Cars II. This makes it hard to predict who will be on top. I'm hoping GL takes both weekend hopefully taking it away with 40-50 mill each weekend.



Captain America will prob have the toughest weekend. It will be competing with Harry Potter from the previous weekend, and The Smurfs the following weekend. I have a strong feeling it will take second overall with a take of 80 mil.

fullmetal
fullmetal - 4/11/2011, 11:30 AM
x-men will suffer for not having an aesthetically attractive line up, besides from beast and mystique everyone looks like "the average white guy" and not like your classic x-men...all those little kids want to see wolverine, cyclops, storm, etc. etc...i predict this film will make the least out of all the x films just because aethetically it doesn't resemble x-men at all, even though it may have a great story...
fullmetal
fullmetal - 4/11/2011, 11:33 AM
i;m boycotting x-men, even though it may be a good story...someone has to pay for being so ignorant in naming the film first class...really, that right there is a f uck up beyond epic proportions and shows that Fox hasn't a clue...i also want my money back for x3!!!
claybo4131
claybo4131 - 4/11/2011, 12:09 PM
Think about this, no movie has cracked a 40 million dollar opening weekend yet, and only 2 movies (Rango and Just Go With It) have gotten 100 million in the US alone.

Last year, Alice in Wonderland ALONE had 3 straight weekends above that, so the box office is due for a big breakout, I think people are waiting for the big movies this summer to open up, plus nothing really eye opening has opened up so far.

Before Thor comes out, Scream 4 will probably have a good opening weekend, and the week before Thor, Fast and the Furious 5 or whatever its called will open (The last movie set an opening weekend record for the month of April with 72 million) so that may get some people in, plus people wanna see Vin Diesel and The Rock fight.

Thor I think will open to 100 million plus. So will Pirates 4. Hangover 2 who knows cause Kung Fu Panda 2 will open up that weekend as well.

Super 8 is a wild card I think. Green Lantern will open to 80 million or more but the second week will be key on word of mouth

Transformers 3 an easy 125 million. Harry Potter will get 100 million plus as well. Captain America is tricky, but granted no Harry Potter movie has been number 1 for 3 straight weeks, and the last film was only number 1 for 1 week. I think with Harry Potter is that it has a huge following people flood to see it the first week and then it tails off.

Cap I think will get 70-80 more than likely

You forgot to mention Cowboys & Aliens which I think will be a sleeper hit. Remember you have James Bond & Indiana Jones in the same movie, kind of an original concept idea, Jon Favreau directing, Speilber & Ron Howard involved, I think it will get a good 50 million that weekend give or take.

Smurfs, well are you kidding me, I dont think it will do that well. Neither Alvin & the Chipmunks movies nor Yogi Bear topped their box office when they opened up (The first Alvin movie went up against I Am Legend, the sequel against Avatar & Sherlock Holmes and the third movie opens against Sherlock 2. Yogi Bear opened up against Tron)
Chewtoy
Chewtoy - 4/12/2011, 8:20 AM
claybo4131 is spot on in regards to attendance... this year has been so down in box office so far that I'd be reeling back my opening weekend predictions as well, especially after last year proved softer at the summer box office than most would have expected.

As a result, I think that Thor is looking at a handicap that Iron Man was not. Add to that the sheer number of comic translations audiences have seen and I think it's an uphill battle to come anywhere near Iron Man's opening.

I think the tracking is probably on target, at least pre-reviews.
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