Early estimates are in for this weekend at the North American box office, and From the World of John Wick: Ballerina is currently eyeing a projected $25 million - $30 million debut.
The R-Rated John Wick spin-off hit tracking at $35 million three weeks ago, proving that such early predictions are nothing if not unreliable. However, those figures also aren't plucked out of thin air, and this dip suggests Ballerina is currently underperforming.
The movie earned $3.5 million from previews for an $11 million Friday. Ballerina reportedly underwent extensive reshoots to improve the action scenes, with Chad Stahelski lending filmmaker Len Wiseman a hand. With a $90 million budget and $45 million spent on marketing, Ballerina has a long way to go to profitability, but won't need to gross hundreds of millions to be considered a win for Lionsgate.
Lilo & Stitch will remain #1 in North America with an expected $32 million - $34 million, but Ballerina should easily beat Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning's projected $14 million third weekend haul. That's a movie that does need to near the $1 billion mark to be deemed a hit.
Something that bodes well for Ballerina is its CinemaScore. For those of you unaware, CinemaScore is a market research firm that surveys audience reactions to newly released movies.
After attending opening night screenings, moviegoers rate films on an A+ to F scale, providing insights into audience satisfaction. Widely used in the film industry, CinemaScore helps gauge the initial reception of movies and influences box office predictions based on audience feedback.
Ballerina has been given an "A-" grade, on par with John Wick: Chapter 2 and John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum. It's also beaten John Wick's "B" score and only falls shy of John Wick: Chapter 4's "A."
On Rotten Tomatoes, Ballerina has a 75% score from critics and an impressive 94% on the audience-generated Popcornmeter. This one might not be off to the strongest of starts financially, but it could have legs. Alas, it has to contend with How to Train Your Dragon next weekend.
From the World of John Wick: Ballerina takes place during the events of John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum, and follows Eve Macarro (Ana de Armas), who is beginning her training in the assassin traditions of the Ruska Roma.
Ballerina is now playing in theaters.