In 2019, Joker opened to an impressive $93.5 million in North America and ultimately exceeded expectations by grossing over $1 billion at the worldwide box office.
A great deal has changed since then and the box office hasn't - and likely never will - recover from the impact of COVID-19. The days of blockbusters easily grossing $1 billion are also over as many moviegoers wait to watch new releases at home typically just weeks after they hit the big screen.
While we expect Joker: Folie à Deux to be a hit, the odds are stacked against it due to the damage done to the DC brand in 2023 and the fact this sequel will feature musical elements (which is never much of a draw).
According to Box Office Theory's Shawn Robbins, the movie is currently eyeing a $120 million - $150 million domestic debut. Those are great numbers and suggest the Clown Prince of Crime will be largely immune to the factors mentioned above.
However, this tracking is five weeks out, tickets haven't gone on sale yet, and we'd expect more conservative estimates to drop in the weeks ahead.
Also of note is the fact Deadpool & Wolverine, the R-Rated Marvel Studios movie that demolished the records set by Joker, debuted with $211 million last month. Even with a $150 million bow, Joker: Folie à Deux clearly won't be taking any of those records back.
It's not a competition, of course, but the comparison is interesting nonetheless.
Asked recently whether this franchise (because, despite what was said five years ago about Joker being a standalone tale, that's exactly what it's become) could continue to expand, director Todd Phillips closed the door on Joker 3. For now, at least.
"It was fun to play in this sort of sandbox for two movies, but I think we’ve said what we wanted to say in this world," he said.
Joker: Folie À Deux finds Arthur Fleck institutionalized at Arkham awaiting trial for his crimes as Joker. While struggling with his dual identity, Arthur not only stumbles upon true love, but also finds the music that's always been inside him.
The sequel stars Joaquin Phoenix once again in his Oscar-winning dual role as Arthur Fleck/Joker, opposite Oscar-winner Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born). The movie also features Oscar nominees Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Catherine Keener (Get Out), alongside Zazie Beetz, reprising her role from Joker.
Phillips, who was nominated for Oscars for directing, writing and producing Joker, directed Joker: Folie À Deux from a screenplay by fellow Oscar nominee Scott Silver & Phillips, based on characters from DC. This follow-up was produced by Phillips, Oscar nominee Emma Tillinger Koskoff and Joseph Garner. Lady Gaga served as music consultant.
Joker: Folie À Deux arrives in theaters on October 4.