While Disney has found financial success with each of its
Star Wars films released since acquiring the franchise for a paltry $4 billion back in 2012, there's some skepticism surrounding its upcoming spinoff
Solo: A Star Wars Story. From directorial shake-ups to behind-the-scenes drama to overwhelmingly large boots to fill by its lead actor, could this uncertainty lead to Disney's first
Star Wars box office bomb?
Box Office Pro has posted its long range tracking estimate for
Solo: A Star Wars Story, projecting the movie to earn $150 million in its three-day opening weekend, which is around what
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story hauled in. However, the site estimates
Solo's domestic total to be just $390 million, which would be well short of the $532 million
Rogue One earned stateside.
Despite the drama surrounding the film, the
Star Wars brand name itself should drive audiences to theaters to see
Solo; however, the site notes that
"Solo doesn't have some of the key advantages the recent films have enjoyed at the box office."
For example,
Solo is releasing in the middle of two competitive films - Disney's
Avengers: Infinity War and Fox's
Deadpool 2. While Disney has provided some distance between its two blockbusters, Box Office Pro points out that if
Deadpool 2 generates positive word of mouth, it could cut into some of the older male audience that helps drive
Star Wars. Additionally, Disney Pixar's
The Incredibles 2 releases in
Solo's fourth weekend, which could further cut short its legs. Basically,
Solo: A Star Wars Story faces some stiff competition which could hinder its overall success.
On top of that, the site points out the polarizing reception to Rian Johnson's
The Last Jedi, as well as possible franchise fatigue, could result in some longtime fans skipping out on the movie completely.
"Not having the euphoric buzz from The Force Awakens leading into this anthology film, as was the case with Rogue, is another important element to keep in mind," the site adds, concluding:
"Expectations should reasonably be kept in check more than they have been for the franchise in recent years, but there is every hope that director Ron Howard has stepped in and completed a project that will entertain audiences as Star Wars has always done even at its “lowest” points. The barometer for success is not the $532 million domestic gross of Rogue One, and it’s important to ignore those kinds of short-sighted comparisons in the coming months."
For now, Box Office Pro is projecting a domestic gross anywhere between $350-475 million. Do you plan on seeing Solo: A Star Wars Story in theaters?