The Avengers is a success in every sense of the word. Fans are ecstatic. Critics are raving. Everyone involved in the film is making a mint and The Avengers may be the new record holder for a single film holding the largest number of box office dollars and attendance records in history.
The US opening weekend is wrapping up and the total stands at $641.8 million dollars. We won't know exact numbers until after all the screens go dark, but at this point they barely matter. IMAX and 3D numbers are off the charts with tickets selling out, so next week's numbers are sure to be strong considering how willing people are to unload extra cash for premium seats. Some more records will be set. Anyone arguing that the film won't see $1 billion is just treading water until there is absolute proof. Then they will find another reason to hate on something.
Even now that numbers are in, there is a question that looms in the mind of all fanboys: will The Dark Knight Rises beat The Avengers? Batman has performed stronger than the other superheroes in a head to head confrontation, but Earth's Mightiest have proven to be a sum larger than its parts. By the time TDKR rolls into theaters, Avengers exhaustion will have been followed by The Amazing Spider-Man, Men In Black III, Battleship, Snow White and the Huntsman, Prometheus, Brave, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter and G.I. Joe: Retaliation, each one competing for those big screen action dollars Avengers has proven exist for entertainment worthy enough. That's a lot of forty foot explosions in a short amount of time, and a humble return from high-expectation films like Spider-Man, G.I. Joe and Brave could make people more hesitant to purchase a ticket.
Additionally, TDKR hasn't had the $100 million dollar marketing campaign that The Avengers had. Both are built on franchises, Nolan's being consistently good while the Marvel Cinematic Universe has always fared well, if not exceptional, but Marvel's is much broader. They're able to appeal to an audience wide enough to include everyone, while Nolan's dark, visceral take on the Dark Knight isn't to some tastes. The truth is at this point, TDKR has to pull something out of a magic hat to hope to have a shot at the numbers we're seeing.
Peter Sciretta at /Film tweeted this on Sunday afternoon:
In a superheroic synchronicity, at the same moment that tweet rolled into my feed, I was listening to Kevin Smith's
SModcast.
His show is a potpourri of pop culture and cinema secrets. It's also a talk show, and talk radio is good for the soul even if it is composed mostly of fellatio jokes and Star Wars references. On this particular show, he gave his interpretation of what would be a transcendental Batman story. Batman dies and goes to heaven, where he is allowed to go to any age in his life and live forever. He chooses to go back to being a child, when his parents were alive, only to discover his parents are in hell. He has to fight his way in to hell to get them back.
The preface to the story is an interesting rumor that is floating around, one that could also be a serious game changer. What if Christopher Nolan kills Batman?
It is a macabre truth that the untimely death of Heath Ledger boosted early ticket sales, helping launch The Dark Knight to the perch on which it currently resides and Marvel fans are hoping to knock down a peg. If that wouldn't have happened (if ifs and buts were candy and nuts...), the numbers still would have been admirable because the movie was amazing, but the accident did something normal publicity couldn't. It created an intense audience connection with one of the most disturbed supervillains to hit the screen. It was an Oscar-winning performance that cemented the Ledger legacy in movie history and people wanted to see it again and again.
What would it take to repeat that performance? God forbid any real life tragedy of any magnitude occur, so for TDKR to really sell the number of tickets it needs to match The Avengers, it has to do something never done before. Opening weekend numbers aren't going to succeed because the film will probably run longer than usual. It also won't be shown in 3D, which will mean more full seats are needed to match those extra dollars. Where TDKR will really have to shine is repeat attendance. The drop between first week and second week will be crucial. Killing Bruce Wayne in the final act is the perfect way to create the intense buzz they need.
This is the final film in Nolan's Dark Knight Trilogy. For those that haven't seen the trailers, let me remind you:
Nolan is giving us a cinematic graphic novel. It had an appropriately named beginning and now it will have a conclusion. It is one story, in three acts and three films. Expect it to be Return of the Bat, the most exceptional movie in an exceptional movie trilogy. Will that be enough to make it the box office bonanza fanboys want?
It could be, especially if they kill the bat. A Moriarty/Holmes-esque battle with Bane could leave the audience in a state of shock and awe. Everybody knows that any future Batman films will be a reboot of the story. The Dark Knight saga is wrapping up and there's no real confirmation on whether it will be back soon. A likely model would be that DC and Warner Bros. will shelve Gotham's hero for the short term in an effort to start working on the other characters needed for their future team superhero movie. The best way to get bang for their buck would be to kill the hero - they did it with Superman to sell funny books. Everybody knows the bat will be back, but the short-term anguish over the death of a superhero (how often does that actually happen?) would certainly act as a catalyst.
If the bat doesn't dethrone the band of superhero misfits that is currently monopolizing news feeds, there doesn't seem to be a short term player that could. Taking the characters solo again will probably continue to be successful, but it is likely they'll perform similarly to the earlier films or slightly below. One or two breakaway successes will occur, but it's doubtful Marvel will match Avengers numbers until the sequel.
Spider-Man seems like an obvious choice, but the poor reception of Spider-Man 3 by the fanbase makes it unlikely. Another mutant team movie could step up the game, but the X-Men franchise doesn't seem to have what it takes to step it up this much. New Mutants is an interesting possibility, but the marketing campaign would have to be brilliant and the movie would have to do something completely new with the mutant story. Then there is the Hunger Games sequel. That can't be dismissed, but the franchise is so young we still have to see what kind of legs it has. The first film is still in theaters and The Avengers is sure to destroy it monetarily.
Given the time they need, the much rumored and eventually expected JLA movie that DC is sure to work on has the potential. That won't be for years. The field as it sets is full of strong contenders, but the throne should be secure for a while. The next best bet is The Avengers 2, but we'll all be paying attention, waiting for a dark horse to separate from the pack.
I would love to see the studios prove me wrong.