Long-range tracking for Joker: Folie à Deux recently pointed to a $70 million opening weekend in North America, a far cry from those early $100+ million predictions.
Now, a troubling trend has been spotted in that tracking because the $70 million is slowly starting to dip. According to Puck's Matthew Belloni, the Joker sequel's tracking "has dropped slightly from $70M last week to $68M."
What's a couple of million dollars in the grand scheme of things? Well, not much, but it points to Joker: Folie à Deux potentially coming in well below estimates and perhaps even underperforming.
Reviews out of Venice were mostly positive but not glowing and a 63% Rotten Tomatoes score - which, like it or not, does sway many moviegoers - isn't likely to drive up interest in a movie that's already a tough sell. Why? Well, in place of the hard-hitting character drama we got in 2019 is a jukebox musical.
Musicals are a hard sell at the best of times and, among fans, there's already a fair bit of negative buzz about what may be a divisive ending.
Talking in Venice earlier this month, Joker: Folie à Deux star Joaquin Phoenix talked about singing on set with co-star Lady Gaga. "Stefani said early on that we’re singing live and I said, 'No, we’re not," he recalled. "And then we did. Not only did we sing live, but every part of the recording was live. Each take was a different version of the song and that felt really exciting."
Director Todd Phillips added, "If you remember the first film Arthur has a musicality to him. He is often dancing to express the way he feels. And Hildur Guðnadóttir’s score is almost a character in the first film."
"So when it started taking shape with actual music elements we thought what if we got Lady Gaga who actually brings music with her."
"The music is a way to give the characters a way to express themselves because the dialogue wasn’t enough," Gaga acknowledged. "Joaquin’s performance set the bar extremely high."
"And I think sometimes when stories are told of people who are misunderstood by society, the actors and director can show you something unknown to you. And with Joker I felt I got to understand and see something I never understood before."
The odds may be stacked against Joker: Folie À Deux but its predecessor exceeded expectations five years ago, winning Oscars and grossing over $1 billion worldwide.
Stay tuned for updates on Joker: Folie À Deux as we have them.
Joker: Folie À Deux finds Arthur Fleck institutionalized at Arkham awaiting trial for his crimes as Joker. While struggling with his dual identity, Arthur not only stumbles upon true love, but also finds the music that's always been inside him.
The sequel stars Joaquin Phoenix once again in his Oscar-winning dual role as Arthur Fleck/Joker, opposite Oscar-winner Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born). The movie also features Oscar nominees Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Catherine Keener (Get Out), alongside Zazie Beetz, reprising her role from Joker.
Phillips, who was nominated for Oscars for directing, writing and producing Joker, directed Joker: Folie À Deux from a screenplay by fellow Oscar nominee Scott Silver & Phillips, based on characters from DC. This follow-up was produced by Phillips, Oscar nominee Emma Tillinger Koskoff and Joseph Garner. Lady Gaga served as music consultant.
Joker: Folie À Deux arrives in theaters on October 4.